The situation and Prospect of corn market in the United States

Introduction: in January and November, the corn forecast was higher than the industry's expectation: the United States Department of Agriculture released the fourth official corn and sorghum production forecast for 2001 Corn production is expected to be 9546 million bushels, 116 million bushels higher than the October production report and 48 million bushels higher than the average estimate of industry analysts before the report The November yield report is based on the corn crop status as of November 1 At that time, the corn harvest was 64%, 85% lower than the same period last year, and 73% lower than the five-year average Therefore, the accuracy of corn yield prediction is lower than the average value to some extent, because the actual yield can not be combined with the estimated yield Since 1950, there is a 65% probability that the final annual corn production is higher than the estimated output report in November The annual output is 0.5% higher than the estimated value in November There is a 2 / 3 probability that the final corn yield will increase or decrease by 1.4% in the estimated value in November In the past 33 years, it is estimated that the corn yield has increased in the November yield report, with a 70% probability that the final corn yield is higher than the November estimate In these years, the final corn production increased by 0.9% on average compared with the estimated value in November Based on this analysis, it is very likely that the final corn yield will increase 2 Global crude grain inventory decreased: the U.S Department of agriculture estimated in the November supply and demand report that global crude grain production increased by 4.4 million tons in 2001, and the ending inventory increased by 6.5 million tons Although this year's crude grain output is 15.7 million tons higher than last year's, the ending inventory will drop by more than 22 million tons Global ending stocks of coarse grain are tightening relative to the past 27 years Global crude grain production is higher than last year, mainly due to an increase of 11 million tons in the production of the former Soviet Union China surprised the market by buying 20 million bushels of American corn and canceling export sales of 40 million bushels China's corn supply has declined by 9% this year At present, China has become a member of the WTO Many industry analysts expect China's net corn export volume to be only 1-2 million tons, lower than the final forecast of 4 million tons by the U.S Department of agriculture, 3.3 million tons lower than last year 3 The table of American corn export is lower than the progress table: as of the middle of November, the number of American corn export commitments accounted for 42% of the total annual corn export (based on the data from 1975 to 2000) This year's corn export commitments were 634 million bushels, 36 million bushels lower than the same period last year The average of corn export commitments in the same period of 25 years is 773 million bushels This year's export commitments account for only 31% of the USDA's projected 2.05 billion bushels of exports The U.S Department of agriculture predicted in its November supply and demand report that U.S corn exports were the same as those predicted in October, but 113 million bushels higher than last year Based on the periodicity of export commitments as a proportion of annual total exports, the average of corn export commitments in the same period should be 848 million bushels As of November 15, the number of export commitments to Japan was 208 million bushels, 8 million bushels lower than last year During the same period, the average order volume of Japan was 236 million bushels Other Asian countries committed 61 million bushels to Taiwan, compared with 67 million bushels in the same period last year Export commitments to South Korea fell 15 million bushels as the country increased its purchases from China The U.S Department of agriculture predicted in its November global supply and demand report that China's corn exports will be 4 million tons this year, down 3.28 million tons from last year US corn export commitments to Egypt were 52 million bushels, 15 million bushels lower than last year In the same period, Egypt's orders accounted for an average of 27% of the total annual purchases Export commitments to Mexico were 68 million bushels, the same as the same period last year But this is the third largest data in the same period Over the same period, Mexico ordered an average of 34 million bushels, accounting for 36% of the total annual purchases Based on the current commitment process, Mexico's imports of corn from the United States are likely to reach 220 million bushels this year, down several million bushels from last year's record imports If the export commitments to Mexico's corn were combined with those to other crops (sorghum, soybeans and wheat), the export commitments as of November 15 would be 252 million bushels, 24 million bushels higher than the same period last year, the highest in the same period It is uncertain whether Mexico refuses to end the HFCS import tariff on US corn, which affects us corn trade with Mexico US corn and sorghum export commitments to Mexico hit a record high of 154 million bushels on November 15 Sorghum grain export commitments were 117 million bushels, 39 million bushels higher than the same period last year In the November supply and demand forecast report, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that the export volume of American sorghum was 240 million bushels, 1 million bushels higher than that of last year This year's export commitments account for 49% of the USDA's annual export forecast The export commitments in the same period accounted for 48% of the average annual export volume Based on the periodicity of export commitments and annual export volume, the average value of sorghum export commitments in the same period is about 115 million bushels The number of commitments for sorghum export to Japan is 30 million bushels, 10 million bushels higher than the same period last year, but far lower than the average value of 46 million bushels in the same period of 25 years The number of commitments for Mexican sorghum exports was 86 million bushels, 32 million bushels higher than the same period last year, the highest in the same period 4 Corn inventory in the United States increased by 116 million bushels: in the latest supply and demand report, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that corn inventory in the United States at the end of the period was 1.574 billion bushels, 116 million bushels higher than last month's forecast, but 325 million bushels lower than last year The average price of corn in the U.S is $2.0 per bushel, 15 cents higher than last year, according to analysts in the U.S agricultural sector American sorghum stocks are also expected to increase by 1 million bushels American agricultural analysts forecast sorghum prices to fall to $2.0 per bushel, down 5 cents from last month's forecast, but 12 cents higher than last year's The U.S Department of agriculture forecasts corn feed and residue consumption in the United States at 5.8 billion bushels Generally, the decrease of feed grain quantity will increase feed price Last year, corn feed increased 226 million bushels, with the average corn price rising 3 cents / bushel (2% higher than the previous year) The U.S Department of agriculture forecasts that the U.S corn feed and residue consumption will only decrease by 1.5% in 2001 / 02, but the price will increase by 8.1% The U.S Department of agriculture forecasts a decline in average animal feed grain consumption The USDA expects livestock feed consumption to fall by an average of 6.8% per head this year The low consumption of feed grain in livestock industry is the trend of continuous decline of feed grain consumption Feed grain consumption in the United States has declined since the mid-1980s One reason for the decline in the proportion of feed grain consumption is the continued increase in feed consumption of pigs and poultry The December inventory report released by the U.S Department of agriculture on January 11 will show livestock feed grain consumption For the first time in the past eight years, the annual corn feed consumption has increased In the past five years, the average consumption of corn feed in the first three months of the market year accounted for 37.4% of the total annual output 5 The price of corn futures contracts in the near future is similar to the expected seasonal pattern: seasonality is the benchmark of USDA as the midpoint of price forecast Starting this year, the average futures price in September is 1 / 2 standard deviation from the seasonal expectation October or November prices were lower than expected, but futures prices were slightly higher than seasonal expectations from December to August This means that futures prices are basically in line with the latest USDA price forecast However, due to the slow export process of corn in the United States, the uncertainty of the expected highest record feed consumption, and the possibility that the final corn production may be higher than that estimated in November, which makes the corn futures price easy to fluctuate and may fall 5-10 cents.