The shortage of grain supply and demand in 2004 / 05 will be relieved

Introduction: market participants predict that 2004 / 05 (from October to September of the next year) will be the year with the smallest gap in China's food supply since 2001 / 02, and the tension between supply and demand in the food market will be alleviated to some extent Benefit from Since the fourth quarter of 2003, the effect of increasing farmers' income caused by two sharp increases in food prices, and various favorable policies issued by the state at the beginning of this year to encourage farmers to increase the planting area of food, the planting area of China's main food varieties will show different growth in the year, and the market people expect the growth rate to be 3% (the sum of wheat, corn and rice production) If the unit yield is predicted based on the normal weather during the crop growth period, the grain yield will show a restorative growth, with the growth rate expected to be 7.7% The increase of output will effectively improve the supply capacity of domestic grain, so as to alleviate the current situation of tight domestic grain supply It is predicted that the new supply of grain in 2004 / 05 (the sum of output and import in that year) will increase by 8.7% year on year, and the domestic demand for grain in 2004 / 05 will increase by 1.7% slightly The grain export volume will decrease by 54.6% year on year due to the sharp decline of corn export in China China's grain demand in 2004 / 05 is expected to remain at the level of the previous year, with an increase of only 0.2% The newly increased supply is growing in a restorative way, while the demand is basically stable, which ensures that the situation of tight grain supply in the next year will be eased.