The seventh batch of central pork reserves will be put into the price of less room for price increases

The National Development and Reform Commission said on November 1 that in order to further do a good job in the market to ensure supply and stabilize prices, and promote pig prices to return to a reasonable range as soon as possible, the state will release the seventh batch of central pork reserves this year, and urge and guide all localities to increase efforts to release local government pork reserves to form a regulatory synergy
.
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According to monitoring, in the week of October 24 to 28, the national average pig grain price ratio was 9.
66:1, still higher than the upper limit of the 9:1 reasonable range determined by the pork reserve adjustment plan; pork prices increased by more than 40% year-on-year, still in the excessive rise level
1 warning range.
This also made the conditions for the release of the
seventh batch of central reserve pork.
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In fact, this is the latest reserve meat release action
in November after the completion of the "fifth and sixth batch of central pork reserves this year" by the state on October 9 and October 19.
The reason for this is that the market generally blames it on the combination of
festive factors and fluctuating demand.
Therefore, the sixth batch in October and the seventh batch to be completed in the near future are aimed at responding to the sharp increase
in pork prices after the 11th National Day.
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According to statistics from the National Development and Reform Commission, the state and various localities have put in a total of about 200,000 tons of pork reserves in September, and the number of monthly releases will reach the highest level
in history.
The first batch of central pork reserves was completed on September 8; The second batch was launched on September 18; The third batch was completed in the week of September 22; The fourth batch was launched on September 30
.
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According to the reporter's recent visit to the market, since the late National Day, both the procurement of enterprise canteens and the demand for private consumption have declined, which objectively led to a simultaneous decline
in the number of pork on the market.
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According to the statistics of Xinfadi Market Department, compared with the same period last year, the average daily listing volume of white striped pigs during the National Day holiday in 2022 decreased by 19.
79% compared with before the holiday, and this year's weekly decrease was 36.
96%, and the month-on-month decline was significantly higher than the same period last year, which also made the year-on-year decline in the average daily listing volume this year more significantly amplified
.
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With the rise in pork consumption demand after mid-October, pork prices have returned to support
.
The analysis of the Xinfadi market department believes that in addition, the temporary poor transportation of white striped pigs has caused the tight supply, which is also the reason for
the sharp increase in prices.
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Obviously, due to multiple factors such as changes in pork supply and demand and obstruction of circulation, pork prices have soared, and the most effective way to promote prices to return to the rational range is to increase market supply
.
From the perspective of the release price, the national and local pork reserve release price is lower than the market price
.
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"The release of the central pork reserve has increased the efforts to
stabilize prices and ensure supply.
" Wen Bin, chief economist of Minsheng Bank, told the China Economic Times reporter that this has a positive effect
on coping with price fluctuations in the fourth quarter.
He judged that in the first three quarters of this year, China's CPI rose by 1.
1%, 2.
2% and 2.
7% year-on-year, respectively, showing a trend
of rising quarter by quarter.
Looking forward to the fourth quarter, it is expected that the upward trend of CPI is expected to continue, among which, in terms of food prices, pig prices are still an important supporting force, but with the effectiveness of regulatory measures such as the government's frozen pork reserves, there is less
room for further increases in the future.
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Wen Bin expects that overall, the disturbance of energy prices to CPI in the fourth quarter may weaken
.
In addition, in addition to pork prices, food prices will also face certain short-term fluctuations
due to the recovery of food demand in autumn and winter, and the increase in supply disturbances such as weather and epidemics.
Wen Bin also stressed that at present, China's prices as a whole remain stable, and the inflationary pressure is not large
.
In the third quarter, CPI rose by 2.
7%, 2.
5% and 2.
8% year-on-month, a slight recovery but overall controllable
.
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