The scenery of domestic corn did not reappear yesterday

Introduction: Since the second half of last year, the domestic corn market has bid farewell to the trend of low prices in the past In the early stage, all negative factors have dramatically developed in the direction that is conducive to the market The price market has a strong rebound, with a large increase and a fast speed For a time, it has become the focus of attention of the industry It is also known as the darkest "black horse" in the grain market, compared with last year Compared with that, the past scenery of corn market is no longer repeated Based on the factors of corn price rising in the second half of 2000, the trend of corn price in the first half of 2001, the trend form of recent price and the development direction of China's corn market in the later period, the author analyzes the factors that influence the market price trend at different stages In the second half of 2000, how to strengthen the market price of corn in China? In summary, there are several factors to promote it 1 The adjustment of agricultural planting structure has become the main reason to promote the price of corn 1 The reason of planting structure adjustment In recent years, the market of soybean products has been active, the economic benefits of planting soybean have been improved, and the economic benefits of planting corn have declined Therefore, the state has made a reasonable adjustment to the planting structure, implemented the "soybean corn" rotation plan, and subsidized the planting of soybean, thus stimulating the enthusiasm of farmers to plant soybean and reducing the planting area of corn 2 The reduction of production areas after the adjustment of planting structure According to the data provided by the national grain and Oil Information Center at that time, in 2000, the planting area of corn in China decreased from 388.5 million mu in the previous year to 345.75 million mu, among which, the main corn producing provinces of Jilin, Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Northeast Inner Mongolia decreased by 864, 378, 402 and 483 million mu, respectively, 24.2%, 9.5%, 16% and 20.5% compared with the previous year The total planting area of the four provinces is 102.75 million mu, a decrease of 11% The decrease of planting area has played a fundamental role in raising the price of corn 2、 Climate factors affect production and provide conditions for the price to keep rising In 2000, serious drought occurred in Northeast China, especially in the west of Jilin, Heilongjiang and Liaoning, the middle of Heilongjiang and the east of Inner Mongolia The climate characteristics of the whole growth period are less rainfall and high temperature, which seriously affected the growth of corn According to the statistics of relevant departments, the total corn output in 2000 decreased from 125 million tons in 1999 to 106 million tons, a decrease of about 15.2% The drought caused a sharp decline in output, which played a role in promoting the continuous rise of corn prices 3、 China's export volume has increased dramatically In 2000, China exported 10.46557 million tons of corn, which is 1474000 tons more than the total export of the previous two years The large-scale export of corn eased the pressure of domestic inventory The inventory of grain enterprises decreased, reduced the circulation of domestic corn, and promoted the recovery of corn price which has been low for five years 4、 Policy factors drove prices higher With the support of the national policy news, the prohibition of sale of aged grain, the need for ordering grain and bargaining grain to be sold at a lower price, and the grain inventory clearing work to be carried out in each province in the near future have all reduced the low price grain sources in the current market, steadily increased the sales cost in the production areas, and the price of Yumi in the sales areas has continued to rise on the basis of the original natural growth At the same time, in 2000, the price of corn protection did not rise The continuous increase also played a driving role in the rise of corn prices 5、 From the perspective of the international market, the world corn supply and consumption is a growing trend According to the prediction of the U.S Department of agriculture, in the first few years of the 21st century, the global corn production will grow at a rate of 2% per year In 2000 / 2001, the global corn production will be about 615 million tons, an increase of 1.74% over 1999 The demand is expected to be 609 million tons, an increase of 1.05% over the previous year The international trade volume will be growing Potential, the international market price will also rise again, the optimistic expectation of the global economy has played a role in promoting the price of corn market Based on the above points, under the joint promotion of all favorable factors and the promotion of favorable expectations, corn prices rose rapidly in the second half of 2000, which laid a foundation for the firmness and high-level climbing of corn prices in 2001 In the second half of 2000, China's corn market was rejuvenated and the price was rising steadily By the middle of January 2001, the average price of corn plate in northern Jilin had reached 1030 yuan / ton, with the highest price reaching 1100 yuan / ton The average price of car plate in Southern Fujian, Jiangxi and other places had risen to 1330 yuan / ton and 1230 yuan / ton respectively Dalian, the port, was also unwilling to be weak, with the price rising to 1120 yuan / ton In 2000, jade The good development trend of rice price continues to deepen here, and the price of corn is favored by people again The price is rising all the way Although it has been stopped in April and may for rectification, the price in June has a new high Considering the factors of corn price rising in the first half of 2001, the following aspects are summarized: first, the planting area continues to be reduced, and the output is affected 1 The drought is serious and affects the output Since the beginning of spring, most areas of China have suffered from different degrees of drought Up to the end of May, more than 64 million mu of dry land in China has not been sown immediately due to lack of moisture, 11 million mu of land has failed to emerge after sowing, and 4.45 million mu of dry land has been harvested Taking Jilin, the main corn producing area, as an example, in May, continuous high temperature and little rain occurred in most parts of the province, leading to a large area of seedling drought in farmland, which has further intensified Nearly 70 days from April to the end of May, most parts of the province did not have a drizzle Among the nine administrative regions, the drought in Changchun, Siping, Liaoyuan, Songyuan, Baicheng and other five regions is more serious, with 28 counties and regions suffering from serious drought, of which 8 counties have reached a severe situation As of June 15, there were 44.77 million mu of dry land and 24.3 million mu of serious drought; 3.4 million mu of paddy land and 1 million mu of serious drought The drought area of grain crops accounts for more than 80% of the total planting area By early August, the wilting area of the whole province was 11.3 million mu, including 9.2 million mu of corn 2 Sowing situation According to the data of the national grain and oil information center, the planting area of corn in 2001 increased by 390000 hectares over the previous year, reaching 23.45 million hectares In addition, according to the introduction of the Agricultural Department of Jilin Province, the total planting area of crops in 2001 was 60.98 million mu, basically the same as last year Due to the large adjustment of planting structure, the sown area of grain crops continued to decrease The total sown area of the province was 50.17 million mu, 2.83 million mu less than last year Among them, the corn planting area is 27.8 million mu, an increase of nearly 500000 Mu over last year It can be seen that although the planting area increased in 2001, the severity of the drought was higher than that of last year, and the heavier drought had a serious impact on food production From the perspective of the drought impact and seedling situation at that time, the reduction of food production has become a foregone conclusion, and the insiders have also made comments on the reduction of the predicted production The continuous deterioration of the drought aggravates the expectation of the reduction of production, which also drives the price to go again High provides motivation 2、 The purchase price of the production area has increased In summer, the weather gradually turns hot, the water content of corn keeps decreasing, and the purchase price also rises The purchase price of corn in Jilin Province has increased from 0.48 yuan / jin to 0.50 yuan / Jin, and the price in some regions has increased greatly, from 0.50 yuan / jin to 0.52 yuan / Jin The purchase price per ton has increased about 40 yuan, and the continuous increase of purchase cost has led to the increase of the ex warehouse price and market price It plays a fundamental role 3、 Feed production has entered the peak season, and feed prices are also rising Entering the peak season of feed production in May, the purchase desire of Southern processing enterprises has increased, and all enterprises have sent special personnel to the production area to buy corn At the same time, the rapid development of feed industry has also widened the road for the increase of demand In May June, the form of purchase and sale in the production area is very good, the market is inclining to the seller's market, and the price is steadily rising along with this change 4、 Exports maintain a good momentum of development In recent years, China's export situation has been improving, especially last year, China's corn export suddenly increased by more than 10 million tons, which has played an important role in promoting the corn market Since this year, China has maintained a high export momentum According to customs statistics, from January to July, China exported 600000 tons, 750000 tons, 940000 tons, 250000 tons, 470000 tons, 120000 tons and 51 tons of corn respectively, accumulating 3.64 million tons With the acceleration of China's accession to the world trade organization, the state has continuously introduced policies to encourage the export of corn On the basis of 368 yuan / ton subsidies at the end of last year, an additional 10 yuan / ton is added, and an additional 40 yuan is awarded Therefore, China ushered in an export peak in August The results of export bidding are gratifying, which played a driving role in the periodic oscillation and decline in the first half of the year On that day, the low price actually turned around again, but from the current situation, the role of export bidding in the early stage has become weaker and even hindered the price 5、 With the price rising, farmers and storage enterprises are reluctant to sell, which plays a role of lubricant for the price rising The main income of farmers comes from selling grain The level of grain price is the focus of farmers' attention The continuous strengthening of corn price has caused farmers to have a strong mentality of reluctant to sell since the second half of last year Farmers' reluctance to sell has affected the acquisition of collection and storage companies Similarly, grain enterprises have begun to be reluctant to sell Due to the needs of life and the efforts of collection and storage companies to reduce inventory pressure, farmers have appeared in stages The enthusiasm for selling grain is rising only when the price is rising On the contrary, when the price is falling, it becomes a hindrance to the market The mentality of reluctant to sell plays a driving role in every step of strengthening the price of corn in the early stage 6、 The back support function of policy factors appears again, which brings up space for corn price The effective implementation of the down price policy has played the most valuable role in supporting and promoting the market price The space for corn price to fall is limited The continuous and effective implementation of this policy provides a broader space for corn price in the later period On the other hand, the strict regulations on transportation issued by the state in the early period have affected the quantity of corn out of the warehouse and reduced the market supply In response to time, it provides time for the price to rise 7、 The favorable factors of the international market are also emerging in the early stage, driving the domestic corn price Affected by foot-and-mouth disease, transgenic and other factors, the supply of corn in the world has been greatly reduced, while at the same time, the demand has been growing rapidly, and the price of corn in the international market has been strengthening Because China has adopted a relatively preventive measure, and the quality of corn has been improved Some foreign countries have turned their purchasing direction to China, which makes the original high corn price rise again 8、 Inventory pressure is falling Affected by the serious drought, the increasing demand and export, the industry insiders' expectation for the decline of the inventory at the end of the year in China has been strengthened, which is expected to drop to less than 20 million tons The easing of the inventory pressure is a kind of promotion for the upward price of corn, which also provides psychological support for the price rise Looking back on the trend of corn market in China in 2000 and the price in the first half of 2001, I believe that you have a detailed understanding of the price rise of corn Although there are obstacles in the process of price rise from time to time, there is a sense of small houses seeing big houses, which does not put too much pressure on the price market Therefore, it has been from the second half of 2000 to now Price of nearly one year in August