The resumption of supply until the wholesale price of pork fell for 4 consecutive weeks, and the National Day rebounded.

Pork prices have been falling since September 2020.
, according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the price of white-striped pigs fell 6.35 percent in the month to September 18, and the weekly wholesale price of pork fell for four weeks in a row.
the week to September 17-September 24, the weekly wholesale price of pork fell 2.52% from four weeks ago.
industry experts pointed out that pig production capacity stopped falling and rebounded, the central reserve frozen pork before the festival continued to put, falling prices caused farmers to concentrate out of the column and other factors have contributed to the September pork market supply increase, resulting in a decline in pig prices.
the same time, although the double section is coming, but the pre-festival price increases may not be reflected in the general trend, in the long run, the pig price cycle downward trend or coming.
supply of pigs returned to the decline into September 2020, pig prices and wholesale pork prices continue to decline.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, on September 18, the factory price of lean white-striped pork in 16 provinces (municipalities directly under the Central Government) was 44.38 yuan/kg, down 6.35% from 47.39 yuan/kg on September 1.
According to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs" National Wholesale Market Price Information System for Agricultural Products, the weekly wholesale price of pork has fallen for four consecutive weeks since the 36th week of 2020 (August 28th - September 3rd), and by the 39th week (September 17th - September 24th, 2020), the weekly wholesale price of pork has fallen to 47.16 yuan/kg, down 2.52% from the weekly wholesale price four weeks ago.
Zengyong, an associate researcher at the Beijing Institute of Livestock and Veterinary Medicine of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, told the Beijing News that the main reason for the current decline in pig prices is the resumption of production capacity.
Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, in October 2019, sows were able to breed on a month-on-month basis, production capacity began to recover, and in February 2020, pig stocks increased month-on-month.
to August 2020, the breeding of sows has been growing for 11 consecutive months, by 3.5% month-on-month, up 37% year-on-year, and pig storage column by 4.7% month-on-month, up 31.3% year-on-year.
Zhu Zengyong told the Beijing News that since the stock of sows rebounded month-on-month, according to the production cycle of 10 months to 12 months, by the third quarter of 2020, pig supply should be in the bottom rebound, month-on-month increase stage.
, the slaughter volume of fixed-point slaughter enterprises above the scale has increased slightly month-on-month in August 2020, with a marked narrowing of the year-on-year decline.
, the supply side has recovered from the bottom.
addition to the month-on-month increase in pig prices from June to July 2020, some farmers re-fertilize, and this part of the pig is also out of the column from August to September.
not significantly increased before the holiday, in addition to the steady recovery of production capacity, Zhu Zengyong said, there are three supply factors also affected the decline in pig prices.
is that the main force of capacity restoration is the leading enterprises above the scale, and its increase in the number of columns has a greater impact on the market than ordinary retail investors.
second, when supply growth is growing but demand is relatively stable, the previously loss-making slaughter industry will take advantage of the change in supply and demand situation to try to pull down pig prices and reduce costs.
is that the central reserve of frozen pork is constantly being put in.
Beijing News that as of September 29, the state had put 35 batches of frozen pork in central reserves during the year.
five of them in September alone, for a total of 8 tons.
Zhu Zengyong believes that the central reserve frozen pork is more competitive in terms of price, which can play an effective role in safeguarding the downstream demand market.
, the phased decline in pig prices has also been linked to a concentrated sell-off by farmers.
Feng Yonghui, chief analyst of China Pig Early Warning Network, told the Beijing News that "the news of the large-scale expansion of pig enterprises in the early market and the gradual decline in prices has made some small farmers less confident, choosing to sell pigs before the National Day and Mid-Autumn Festival, so that the market pig out of the column concentrated."
", the Mid-Autumn Festival approaching, pig prices changes also caused many consumers to be concerned.
to this, Zhu Zengyong pointed out that if pig prices rebound, will basically end around mid-September, but in the multi-party supply increase, pig prices fell under the overall trend, this change has not been clearly demonstrated.
, pork stock has basically ended, pig prices in the National Day rebound probability is very small.
after the National Day, the trend of pig prices will be closely related to the market supply at that time.
Zhu Zengyong said that if the supply of commodity pigs continues to increase after the National Day, and consumer demand falls after the holiday, pig prices may show a volatile downward trend.
And Feng Yonghui pointed out that in the process of falling prices, farmers out of the column volume is large and concentrated, the release of too much capacity in front may lead to a later column volume reduction, the general pig price should be before the festival after the fall, but this year may also appear before the festival after the rise of the situation.
the downward trend of pig prices into a consensus September pig price decline to many consumers have brought "big stuttering meat" hope, however, when will pig prices fall back to normal levels? In Zhu Zengyong's view, according to the current process, if there is no epidemic and other objective factors, the end of 2021 should be able to basically restore pig production capacity.
there is a time difference between restoring production capacity level and restoring supply level, and it is not good to judge the specific time when pig prices fall back into the normal price range.
zhu Zengyong analysis, pig prices reached an all-time high at the end of October 2019, and this year affected by the outbreak, prices also reached the peak of the year in February.
since then, the June-August period has not exceeded the highest prices in late October and mid-February, "the price inflection point of this pig cycle may be coming."
" industry experts pointed out that although pig prices in the short term will be at a high level of phased fluctuations, but the long-term decline trend for the majority of consensus.
Zhou Sha, an analyst at Huaxi Securities, said in a research note that, stimulated by high earnings, the enthusiasm of breeding groups and large-scale farmers to supplement the column has been greatly increased, the national pig production capacity has been steadily restored, ultra-high pig prices have become unsustainable, the downward trend of the cycle has been established and will continue until at least 2022.
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