The release of commodity supply and demand index and PMI complement each other to show the macroeconomic trend

News from business club on January 6: on the basis of monitoring the price fluctuation of 100 basic raw materials in the top eight industries of manufacturing industry, business club publicized and released the "bulk commodity index" (BCI) in Shanghai This is the first commodity index in China The index issuer hopes to become an important evaluation index of manufacturing industry and a "barometer" of macroeconomic changes The reporter learned that there is a relatively authoritative purchasing manager index (PMI) of manufacturing industry in the industry, which selects hundreds of enterprises according to their contribution to GDP in 20 industries, and surveys purchasing managers for new orders, production, employees and other business activities in the form of questionnaires, mainly for consumer goods and industrial products in the industrial chain of national economy "BCI is based on the source of the industrial chain of the national economy, that is, commodities By tracking the price change of bulk commodities, it can not only reflect the demand change and prosperity index of downstream manufacturing industry, but also reflect the operation of macro-economy " Sun Deliang, founder and chairman of the business club, said It is reported that BCI comes from the price fluctuation of 100 kinds of basic raw materials with the most upstream national economy, the largest quantity and the widest use in eight industries of chemical industry, textile, agriculture and sidelines, energy, nonferrous metals, steel, rubber and plastic, and building materials According to the comparison of the prices of these basic raw materials at the beginning and the end of each month, the number of rising and falling varieties in each month is counted, and then the number of rising varieties minus the number of falling varieties is divided by the total number to get the BCI value Zhu Xiaojun, President of business club and vice president of business treasure, said that BCI ranges from - 1 to 1, and 0 represents the balance of supply and demand Among them, BCI > 0 indicates that manufacturing economy is expanding, BCI < 0 indicates that manufacturing economy is contracting, BCI = 0 indicates that manufacturing economy is stable According to the statistics of business agency, the BCI value in October 2011 is -0.56, that in November is -0.70, and that in December is -0.19 At the end of each month in the future, this number will be released to the public Liu Xintian, chief editor of the business club and chief researcher of China Commodity Research Center, also looked forward to the trend of commodities in 2012 "Although European debt affected the original upward cycle of commodities in 2011, it did not fundamentally change the increasingly prominent strategic position of commodities and the trend of long-term high," he said In 2012, the trend of commodity market may be close to 2009, but the speed of getting out of the trough and the strength of recovery should not be too fast " The reporter learned that at the national level, the release of BCI will also help China's commodities to seek a voice in global pricing Experts believe that since the global financial crisis, loose monetary policy has driven commodity prices up and up, and its high price volatility has become a new risk to the world economic recovery At the same time, Asia, which is regarded as the "pacemaker" of world economic recovery, has a growing demand for commodities However, in terms of commodity trading and pricing, China has been in a passive position for a long time, especially the lack of "voice" in international procurement and import prices of iron ore, oil, grain and other commodities "The lack of pricing power of bulk commodities has led to a substantial increase in the price of imported bulk commodities in China, which not only causes huge economic losses to enterprises, but also leads to the increase in the price of basic raw materials and the price of middle and lower reaches products, increases the operating cost of enterprises, and weakens the international competitiveness of products The launch of BCI is expected to reverse the current unfavorable situation and gradually strengthen the international voice of China's commodities " Sun said.