The relative surplus of live pig supply, the price of pigs may fall again

On November 9, the main contract of 2201 live pig futures on the Dalian Commodity Exchange closed at 16,155 points, a sharp increase of 18.

Relative oversupply of live pigs

"At present, China's live pig production capacity continues to increase inertially, and pork supply is still abundant

According to data released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in the first, second and third quarters of this year, the national pork output increased by 31.

The reporter noticed a very interesting data.

Zhu Zengyong said that the decline in the stock of reproductive sows was due to the increase in the number of gilts transferred to commercial pigs and the elimination of sows after July

The industry's profit and loss is basically balanced

A few days ago, Muyuan, a leading domestic pig breeding company, released a report for the third quarter of 2021, stating that: Compared with the same period of the previous year, the net profit attributable to shareholders of listed companies after deducting non-recurring gains and losses fell by 107.

With the recent strong rebound in pig prices, the industry's profits and losses have been basically balanced

"Since mid-to-late October, the loss of the entire industry has improved significantly.

The significant improvement in the loss of the entire industry was first attributed to the sharp rebound in pig prices

The second is to benefit from the reduction in the cost of pig breeding

Pig prices may fall again

Does a sharp rebound in pig prices mean that an upward turning point is coming?

Kong Liang, head of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, told reporters that the supply of live pigs in the market "looks at piglets in the medium term, and sows in the long term

Zhu Zengyong said that since June 2003, the price of live pigs in China has gone through four complete cycles, and each cycle lasts for several years.

The main reasons for the rebound of pig prices since mid-October are: first, pig prices fell to a low level after the National Day, and some areas fell below 10 yuan/kg.

Zhu Zengyong estimates that from the fourth quarter of this year to the first half of next year, the national pig price is generally at a low level, and there may be a significant risk of a fall in the later period

After the outbreak of African swine fever, in order to restore production capacity as soon as possible, a large number of new pig farms have been newly expanded under the support of policy and breeding benefits

Since the beginning of this year, the price of pigs has continued to fall, and some companies even have monthly losses of more than hundreds of millions of yuan