The recovery in downstream demand is limited, and the long line of soybean meal is still bearish

Introduction:hg2with the recovery of U.Ssoybean prices this week, soybean meal 1309 contract to maintain a strong volatility trend, but it is clear that the domestic market growth is far lower than the international market, mainly due to the current fundamental expectations remain pessimistichg2
From the downstream demand point of view, the aquaculture industry has a certain degree of recovery, the national pig grain ratio rebounded to 5.6:1, down 15.5% year-on-year, continuous lying in the deep losses, the national self-breeding column profit level of -180 yuan, compared with last week's recovery of about 50 yuanThe small recovery of the aquaculture industry, mainly due to the beginning of the second round of pork storage, for the market confidence formed a certain degree of boost, but from the perspective of the aquaculture industry's own cycle, the current low farming profits, for this year's farmers and aquaculture enterprises to form a clear curb on the demand for supplementCoupled with the impact of avian influenza on the poultry industry throughout the country, especially confidence in poultry demandIt is expected that this year's feed demand will enter a clear weak cycle, pork prices recovery as a whole at least until next year before the Spring Festival, the recovery of aquaculture needs to wait until next year's peak seasonFrom this point of view, the future downstream demand for soybean meal is difficult to have a significant change, soybean meal supply enterprises need to be ready for the winterhg2
For the near-term market, due to the strong pull-up of the U.Sbean 07 contract, for soybean meal 1309 contract formed a clear support, but the soybean meal price did not appear a significant pull-up market, which is based on the more pessimistic spot consumption expectations of the market made a compromise, this situation is expected to be a certain degree of continuation this weekOn the contrary, soybean meal 1401 contract, the recent trend of weakness, the period price again close to the previous low of 2928 near the first line, this is because the market for this year's U.Snew soybean production is very optimistic, expect the future soybean supply will be significantly increased, which will have a certain impact on the soybean meal supply marketThe current soybean meal contract in recent months has reached 269 yuan, in the recent U.Ssoybean spot continued to strengthen the situation, the domestic soybean meal market near strong and weak situation is expected to be difficult to change hg2
From a technical point of view, under the guidance of the strong pull-up of the U.S beans, soybean meal 1309 contract short-term follow-up strength, the period price back trend line has broken through the 60-day moving average resistance, the market will further rebound upward, the above strong resistance in 3310, 3400 and 3480 line, respectively From the weekly level trend, three consecutive yang line, indicating that the current soybean meal market is in the long arrangement, the gold fork has been formed below, the short-term market is expected to maintain a strong Short-term attention to the 3310 first line of pressure effect hg2
For downstream demand enterprises, is still to take the buy-as-you-go procurement model, do not need to carry out too much stock, but it is important to note that in the beginning of the third quarter, often ushered in the beginning of the recovery of the soybean meal market, so in the next few weeks at the end of the second quarter, you can start to gradually prepare funds in the futures market for a long time to prepare the operation, to avoid the U.S soybean speculation weather and soybean meal demand began to recover after the price rise hg2
For oil mills, the short-term market trend will begin to be grim, with inventories in hand must be hedged in the futures market to counter the pressure on prices of the USDA's gloomy report hg2
For medium- and long-term investors, the future market is still a bear market cycle, near strong and far weak, external strong and weak situation will continue, short-selling suggested the best choice in the long-term contract, soybean meal 1401 in the 3350 first line of short-selling risk is relatively small, can be held for a long time For short-term investors, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the short term hg2 Introduction: hg2 with the recovery of U.S soybean prices this week, soybean meal 1309 contract maintained a strong volatility trend, but it is clear that the domestic market growth is much lower than the international market, mainly due to the current fundamental expectations remain pessimistic hg2
From the downstream demand point of view, the aquaculture industry has a certain degree of recovery, the national pig grain ratio rebounded to 5.6:1, down 15.5% year-on-year, continuous lying in the deep losses, the national self-breeding column profit level of -180 yuan, compared with last week's recovery of about 50 yuan The small recovery of the aquaculture industry, mainly due to the beginning of the second round of pork storage, for the market confidence formed a certain degree of boost, but from the perspective of the aquaculture industry's own cycle, the current low farming profits, for this year's farmers and aquaculture enterprises to form a clear curb on the demand for supplement Coupled with the impact of avian influenza on the poultry industry throughout the country, especially confidence in poultry demand It is expected that this year's feed demand will enter a clear weak cycle, pork prices recovery as a whole at least until next year before the Spring Festival, the recovery of aquaculture needs to wait until next year's peak season From this point of view, the future downstream demand for soybean meal is difficult to have a significant change, soybean meal supply enterprises need to be ready for the winter hg2
For the near-term market, due to the strong pull-up of the U.S bean 07 contract, for soybean meal 1309 contract formed a clear support, but the soybean meal price did not appear a significant pull-up market, which is based on the more pessimistic spot consumption expectations of the market made a compromise, this situation is expected to be a certain degree of continuation this week On the contrary, soybean meal 1401 contract, the recent trend of weakness, the period price again close to the previous low of 2928 near the first line, this is because the market for this year's U.S new soybean production is very optimistic, expect the future soybean supply will be significantly increased, which will have a certain impact on the soybean meal supply market The current soybean meal contract in recent months has reached 269 yuan, in the recent U.S soybean spot continued to strengthen the situation, the domestic soybean meal market near strong and weak situation is expected to be difficult to change hg2
From a technical point of view, under the guidance of the strong pull-up of the U.S beans, soybean meal 1309 contract short-term follow-up strength, the period price back trend line has broken through the 60-day moving average resistance, the market will further rebound upward, the above strong resistance in 3310, 3400 and 3480 line, respectively From the weekly level trend, three consecutive yang line, indicating that the current soybean meal market is in the long arrangement, the gold fork has been formed below, the short-term market is expected to maintain a strong Short-term attention to the 3310 first line of pressure effect hg2
For downstream demand enterprises, is still to take the buy-as-you-go procurement model, do not need to carry out too much stock, but it is important to note that in the beginning of the third quarter, often ushered in the beginning of the recovery of the soybean meal market, so in the next few weeks at the end of the second quarter, you can start to gradually prepare funds in the futures market for a long time to prepare the operation, to avoid the U.S soybean speculation weather and soybean meal demand began to recover after the price rise hg2
For oil mills, the short-term market trend will begin to be grim, with inventories in hand must be hedged in the futures market to counter the pressure on prices of the USDA's gloomy report hg2
For medium- and long-term investors, the future market is still a bear market cycle, near strong and far weak, external strong and weak situation will continue, short-selling suggested the best choice in the long-term contract, soybean meal 1401 in the 3350 first line of short-selling risk is relatively small, can be held for a long time For short-term investors, it is recommended to stay on the sidelines for the short term hg2