The prosperity of dairy market is hard to hide the crisis

Introduction: Nanjing and Chengdu are the two cities with the most sensitive market sense Newspaper wars, color TV wars and so on often make people in the industry "tremble" At present, it is also said that in addition to the newspaper industry war in Nanjing, it is the dairy industry war The unknown dairy industry is gradually on the cusp of the storm When there is a war in an industry, it is often when problems and contradictions are concentrated Especially this "milk pouring incident" in Chengdu and Nanjing reminds people of the Great Depression of the 1930s The emergence of "extreme events of pouring milk" is expected to make dairy enterprises with high profits think about the overall development of the whole industry Two seemingly unrelated "milk pouring events" at 6:00 a.m on February 19, at the only milk purchasing station in Yanjiang Town, Pukou District, Nanjing, more than 40 cattle farmers almost all dumped the remaining fresh milk on the spot Tan Xiaoyi, the cattle farmer, and his wife poured the fresh milk into the fish pond Tan Xiaoyi introduced that his family's 13 cows squeeze out more than 450 Jin of milk every day, but the purchase station only receives more than 200 Jin, so it's sad that the surplus milk is poured out Song, chairman of China Dairy Association, told reporters that there had been a situation in the local market where the supply of raw milk was greater than the demand for processing After the Spring Festival, the market is off-season, but it is the peak season of enterprise production Many small-scale milk processing enterprises can not bear the market pressure and tear up the milk supply agreement with cattle farmers Almost at the same time, events happened in Chengdu, a far away city, which made pouring milk not accidental From March 1 to March 5, Chengdu Huaxi Dairy Group purchased fresh milk in front of the factory and poured expired milk into the sewer in the workshop, Chengdu Business Daily reported After the Spring Festival, Huaxi dairy purchased "retail investors whose daily milk delivery is less than 500kg at a price of 1.60 yuan per kg" In the past, the purchase price of Huaxi dairy industry has been maintained at 1.80 yuan and 1kg "Even if it's produced 24 hours a day, dozens of tons of fresh milk can't be processed on time." The head of West China dairy industry told reporters that at present, the output of milk sources around Chengdu has increased unabated Many farmers in Renshou, Xindu, Ya'an and other places have tried to breed cows, which has increased the supply of fresh milk in Chengdu market by 30% to 40% over the past year "In theory, the operation capacity of our new factory building can basically withstand such a large amount of acquisitions," said the person in charge of Huaxi dairy industry According to the ordinary operation state, the daily output can also reach 60 tons However, to achieve this production capacity, the company's daily power load is 1260kv, but the Shiyang farm where the West China dairy industry is located is currently a restricted power consumption area, which can only supply 620kv And the packaging materials of milk are in a hurry, which makes the West China dairy industry even more headache It is reported that for the "digestion" of the milk source, the West China dairy overtime production storage period longer sterile Tetra Pak milk The Tetra Pak packaging materials to be used in April this year were exhausted in February "At this juncture, the trend of Tetra Pak in the international market is very tight, and we can't find any reinforcements for replenishment." There is a saying in China's dairy industry: 300000 tons is the right to speak, and 1 million tons is the right to compete That is to say, an enterprise with an annual output of 300000 tons of dairy products is entitled to sit down with the domestic leaders such as Guangming, Yili and Sanyuan to discuss problems; an annual output of 1 million tons is the right to compete with foreign enterprises "At present, what we should do is not to reduce production, but to expand production scale," said a person in charge of Huaxi dairy "Today, we pour out fresh milk in order not to fight against the enthusiasm of dairy farmers, avoid killing cows, so as to maintain the milk source in the future We must survive this stage." It's easy to think of two events reminiscent of the 1930s when farmers poured milk in the United States, but it's unusual in a period of rare prosperity in the dairy market When the effective demand is insufficient and the production level is relatively low, China's milk supply is tight in the first three years, and there was a shortage of fresh milk In recent years, many places have introduced encouraging measures to develop the breeding industry, and the milk source has grown rapidly For example, the Beijing municipal government subsidizes 3000 yuan for each cow and 300000 yuan for each milking station, which makes the number of dairy cows in Beijing rapidly exceed 100000 in recent years In Chengdu, the supply of fresh milk increased by more than 30% last year Now, one day's milk production is 1000 tons Some people think that the milk can be given to the public free of charge But it's not that the manufacturers are unwilling to do charity If there is free milk to drink, who will buy normal listed dairy products? The chain reaction of dairy products that can't be sold is that the dairy farmers kill cows and the enterprises go bankrupt At last, even the residents will encounter difficulties in normal milk drinking The rapid expansion of raw milk supply causes the seasonal and regional surplus of milk sources, which makes the processing enterprises unprepared But what most people don't pay attention to is that there is a shadow of insufficient effective demand behind China's milk market Many people are willing to make such a comparison At present, the annual per capita consumption of milk in the world is 92kg, 258.30kg in developed countries, and only 7.2kg in China The forecast data shows that the per capita milk share in China will reach 25 kg by 2030 What a huge market it is! However, due to the problem of eating habits, most of the Chinese people have not yet formed the habit of drinking milk, and the effective demand space needs to be greatly expanded According to a survey, China's milk consumption is concentrated in large cities The consumption of dairy products by rural residents is much less There are quite a lot of people who do not like or are not used to the taste of milk, and many people will have "lactose intolerance" after drinking milk In recent years, the total output of milk in China has been increasing at the rate of 25% to 30% every year However, domestic milk demand is unlikely to double in five years At present, the effective population of dairy consumption is only more than 200 million, and the population with real purchasing power is only tens of millions Hangzhou has a population of 2 million (including the floating population), but the current number of sterilized milk is only 300000, and the current consumption of liquid milk is mainly in China, and the consumption of cheese and other processed products is far from starting Therefore, for the "competition for milk source" in the development of domestic dairy industry in a period of time, some people have vividly commented that it is better to make a big cake together than to try to divide a small cake On the other hand, China's dairy industry has a low level of excess The number of dairy processing enterprises soared from more than 700 in 1998 to more than 1600 at the end of last year Huge market and huge profits attract many pursuers President Song said that pharmaceutical, feed, wine and coal miners were peeping into the dairy industry, such as Sanjiu pharmaceutical, Wahaha, Weiwei soymilk and Ningcheng Laojiao Even the richest man in the mainland, Liu Yonghao, could not help but join in Every day there is a dairy war going on everywhere: a milk company in Nanjing takes the lead in launching the "door-to-door service", and then all the milk companies "deliver milk to the door", at the same time, they "carry forward" and increase such projects as ordering a milk and delivering an evening paper, giving one month's milk in advance for the whole year, first drinking milk and then paying, free delivery of milk boxes, etc A dairy brand agent in Chengdu suggested that some non-staple stores could get 100 yuan or more "rewards" every month as long as they did not sell another brand of dairy products from the same place of origin In just over a month, the sales performance of another brand that was born in the same root dropped by about 30% Large enterprises fight openly and secretly, and small enterprises and even individuals simply flock to them A dairy farmer in Gansu Province even takes three big and fat black and white cows to sell fresh milk In addition, China's dairy enterprises have low production efficiency, low technology and management level, and poor anti risk ability The industry insiders believe that the direct cause of the Chengdu incident is that the production scheduling of Huaxi dairy group is not well done, and it lacks the ability to deal with the crisis Considering the particularity of the dairy industry, large-scale dairy enterprises have their own generators to meet the unexpected needs At present, the CIF price of imported milk powder in China has been reduced to 17000 yuan or even 15000 yuan per ton, which is lower than the average production cost of milk powder in China Therefore, dairy enterprises in the south of the Yangtze River have adopted imported milk powder to produce reduced milk This not only brings huge pressure to the light milk powder manufacturers in the north of China, but also has an increasingly obvious indirect impact on the cattle industry and liquid milk in the south of China When the effective demand is insufficient and the production level is relatively low, the consequence may break out the whole industry crisis, which should remind the dairy enterprises that are working hard When to form an integrated industrial chain The emergence of "pouring milk event" reveals a deep-seated problem, that is, there is no real community of interests between dairy processing enterprises and dairy farmers, and there is no risk fund for dairy cattle raising in China When the market fluctuates, the interests of dairy farmers are difficult to be effectively protected, which will lead to the situation of pouring milk, even selling and killing cattle, resulting in the decline of dairy cattle storage Among all kinds of agricultural and animal husbandry production, processing and marketing industries, dairy industry has the highest degree of integration Dairy farmers in many countries form various forms of cooperatives on a voluntary basis, which are operated in a unified way, accounted for in a unified way and shared in profits It can also obtain financial credit, animal breeding, feeding management, material supply and other services, product quality, market sales and other information Of the 22 dairy factories in the Netherlands, 13 are integrated production, processing and marketing cooperatives, including the three largest processing factories that supply 80% of the country's milk and its products; in India, dairy farmers voluntarily participate in the village milk production cooperatives at the grass-roots level, and collect the scattered rural milk to the town for processing through the organization form of village milk cooperatives, regional federations and general federations, It will be transported to all large and medium-sized cities for sale Experts believe that the industrialization of China's dairy industry is not high, resulting in poor risk resistance of the milk market Due to the long feeding cycle, the growth of the number of dairy cows is restricted by natural laws Once there is a fluctuation, it is difficult to recover The quality of fresh milk and its products will be affected by the incongruity of production, processing and marketing How to realize the integration and coordination of the industrial chain, reduce or eliminate the conflicts of interest between the production, processing and marketing parties, so as to improve the efficiency and efficiency of the whole dairy industry has become a problem that can not be ignored in the domestic dairy industry What's more surprising is that due to the lag of relevant research, no department can get authoritative data from milk source to consumption, and even no one can tell how many cows and processing plants there are On this basis, it is inevitable to study the industry planning and discuss the enterprise development strategy After China's market is gradually integrated into the international market, the periodic fluctuation of the international dairy market every five or six years will have a greater impact on the development of China's dairy industry Some experts suggest that measures should be taken to reduce the harm of market fluctuation to dairy farmers and the whole dairy industry, to fundamentally improve the competitiveness of domestic dairy enterprises, and to consolidate the long-term development of the dairy industry, such as the establishment of dairy risk fund, the establishment of dairy cooperatives, the strengthening of industrial development planning, and the strengthening of information services