The prospect of corn auction in Northeast China

Introduction: In September, the two provinces of northeast Jilin and Heilongjiang will hold competitive auctions of corn and rice It is reported that the number of the two auctions is large, reaching millions of tons Affected by the news of stale grain auction, the northeast corn sales enterprises will speed up the inventory sales work to avoid the price decline caused by the auction However, the active selling of the sales enterprises will first suppress it Market price, according to the statistics, at present, the ex warehouse price of dried corn in Changchun area of Jilin Province is 1190-1200 yuan / ton, and the transaction price of car board is 1220 yuan / ton, down about 20 yuan / ton compared with the previous period; the ex warehouse price of dried corn in Harbin area of Heilongjiang Province is 1170-1180 yuan / ton, and the car board price is 1190-1200 yuan / ton, down 20 yuan / ton compared with the previous period Due to the current weak demand in the domestic corn market, new corn is about to be harvested and listed, and the market environment is not conducive to the higher bidding price of auction varieties, it is expected that the price of corn in Northeast China will still fall In this regard, the author tries to analyze from the following aspects: the weak demand in the corn market and the lack of enthusiasm of enterprises in purchasing In previous years, most of the corn auctions in Jilin were converted to export trade, but at present, the cost price of American corn exported to Asia is about 156-160 US dollars / ton (CNF price), which makes the export price of Chinese corn hang upside down In this way, it will be difficult for the auction corn to be converted to export this year, which will reduce the enthusiasm of the import and export groups for auction varieties, and it is not intended that the auction effect will be predicted Period At this time, the domestic large-scale grain consuming enterprises are relatively abundant in inventory, and the current wait-and-see mentality is still relatively serious If the auction price is on the high side or equivalent to the market price, the grain consuming enterprises will not rush to purchase in batches The peak of market demand is short, and new corn is about to be harvested and listed At present, the pig industry in most areas of guanxi has recovered strongly, and the poultry industry in some areas has also improved recently However, as the "two festivals" approach, a large number of pigs and birds will be slaughtered in the domestic market Before the middle of September, the domestic aquaculture industry belongs to the relatively short-term regional aquaculture recovery peak, but after the middle of September, the domestic aquaculture industry will appear relatively short-term weakness In addition, a small number of early maturing new corn has been listed in southern Guannei, Sichuan, Guangxi and Yunnan, as well as in Shandong, Henan and Hubei, and a large number of summer corn will be listed in batch in mid September Therefore, the enthusiasm of bidding for corn auction in Northeast China is not high Besides, the railway transportation is not completely smooth, and the transportation of corn in Northeast China to the south is still difficult The market environment is relatively unfavorable, and the auction effect is hard to be optimistic According to the understanding of the wholesale market of Jilin grain center, the corn to be auctioned in Jilin Province is about the corn purchased from 2001 to 2002 At that time, the purchase cost price was about 1040-1050 yuan / ton Although it is not aged corn, the quality of corn is general, and it is mainly auctioned to deal with old grain and digest inventory At present, export and foreign trade are blocked, domestic demand is still weak, new corn is close to listing, and railway transportation is restricted by bottlenecks and other factors It is estimated that it will be difficult to see a good sale of grain in the near future, and the delivery price may be 1100-1150 yuan / ton From this point of view, although the northeast corn auction is not promising in the near future, the transaction price of Chen wheat in Beijing auction recently is 1620 yuan / ton, and the highest transaction price is 1660 yuan / ton, which is higher than the current market price of the main production area's wheat ex warehouse price of 154-1600 yuan / ton However, the psychological and negative effects on the domestic corn market can not be ignored The price of corn in Northeast China will continue to decline with the sound of auction In the long run, China's corn market has entered a downward channel, because at present, the climate in the main corn producing areas at home and abroad is conducive to corn growth and a good harvest is in sight However, enterprises should be reminded that as the atmosphere at the auction site is also the main factor affecting the auction price, it does not exclude that the auction meets or even exceeds the expectations of the organizers, so it will play an effective role in promoting the depressed corn market at this time