The proportion of pig food returned to the second-level warning, and the National Development and Reform Commission announced the suspension of purchasing and storage!

 　　According to the National Development and Reform Commission's WeChat public account on the 26th, according to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, the national average pig food ratio was 5.
89:1 during the week of July 19-23, which was between 5:1 and 6:1 for more than three consecutive weeks.
, Rose to the second-level warning range for excessive decline set in the "Improving the Government's Pork Reserve Regulatory Mechanism, Doing a Good Job in the Work Plan for the Pork Market to Ensure Supply and Stabilize Prices"
.
The National Development and Reform Commission will work with relevant departments to carry out pork reserve purchasing and storage as appropriate
.
t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Bulls collapse: Isn't this not up? t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　"Huh, isn't this still up? Why is the temporary purchase and storage suspended?" After the news that pork returned to the second-level warning came out, many people said it was difficult to understand
.
The state's purchasing and storage behavior has played a "stopping" effect on the pigs.
In the past month, the main contract has always maintained a narrow fluctuation trend, and the current price is even lower than the high point of the rebound impact when the purchasing and storage news came out
.
t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The essential purpose of purchasing and storage is to prevent the farmers from making heavy losses.
It is a regulatory behavior based on the ratio of commodity spot to cost
.
When the cost drops to a certain level, even if the price of the commodity itself does not rise, the country's "price stabilization" measures will be recovered
.
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　　The pig-to-food ratio is generally the ratio of the price of live pigs to the price of corn, which is the main feed for live pigs
.
According to general experience, the ratio of the price of live pigs to the price of corn is 5.
5 to 1, and live pig farming is basically at a break-even point
.
The higher the pig-to-food ratio, the better the profitability of breeding, and vice versa
.
t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Recently, the price of corn has continued to fall, which directly reduces the cost of the pig breeding industry
.
If the value of 5.
89:1 last week stabilizes, the problem of continuous losses in the industry chain will be solved
.
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　　Institutions increase in phasest3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　In fact, after the continuous price cuts of corn and the state's continued purchase and storage changed to "purchase and storage depending on the situation", the market has also diverged on the outlook for live hog futures
.
t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　CITIC Futures believes that the pigs will rebound in stages in the coming period
.
t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The content of the research report mentioned: In terms of stage, under high temperature on the supply side, big pigs are prone to heat stress; the impact of heavy rainfall will increase the probability of epidemics.
The enthusiasm of big pigs for slaughter will increase in the early stage, and the impact of the recent epidemic will decrease.
The selling volume has decreased
.
However, after the floods in Henan and other places, the selling of soaked pigs increased, which led to the weakening of pig prices
.
The consumer side is currently in hot weather and the heat is unbearable.
Residents’ enthusiasm for pork consumption has declined.
The slaughter company’s white striped pork is not selling well, and the willingness to increase prices is not strong.
But looking backward, as the weather turns cooler, there is still room for demand to increase.
In terms of policy, purchasing and storage are continuing.
The recent press conference of the National Development and Reform Commission stated that “the number of newborn piglets will decrease from January to February this year.
The price of live pigs may continue to rebound in stages
.
The policy has formed a certain underpinning
.
However, in the long-term perspective, the production capacity of live pigs is still in a large cycle of increasing supply and a large amount of frozen product stocks are putting pressure on pig prices.
Pig prices are expected to continue to weaken after the rebound
.
t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　The wording mentioned: the African swine fever epidemic in the south is showing signs of resurgence.
The epidemic situation in the Bulianghu area of ​​Guichuan is more serious, and the live pigs are intensively slaughtered and externally adjusted, resulting in low prices of live pigs in these areas
.
In the long run, live pigs are still in a cycle of capacity expansion.
Data from the Ministry of Rural Agriculture in June showed that the production of reproductive sows and live pigs had recovered to or even slightly exceeded the level at the end of 2017, showing signs of oversupply
.
In addition, the official and frozen meat stocks are still sufficient, and the terminal consumption is sluggish, which will still put pressure on pig prices
.
On the disk, the price of pigs fluctuates in the range of 1,8000-19,000 yuan/ton, and it is expected to fluctuate in the short term
.
t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Further reading:t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　According to a report from the National Bureau of Statistics on July 26, according to the monitoring of the market prices of 50 important means of production in 9 categories in the national circulation field, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 15.
6 yuan in mid-July 2021 compared with early July.
/Kg, down 2.
5% month-on-month
.
t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Since July, China has successively carried out three auctions of central reserve frozen pork purchasing and storage
.
According to data previously released by the National Bureau of Statistics, in early July, the price of live pigs (external three yuan) was 16 yuan/kg, up 15.
1% from the previous month
.
In the past more than 20 trading days, the cumulative increase of live pig futures exceeded 10%
.
The industry generally believes that the price of live pigs will be in a state of shock adjustment in the short term
.
As the consumption peak season approaches in the second half of the year, pig prices are expected to rebound moderately
.
t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Gao Feng, a spokesperson for the Ministry of Commerce, said a few days ago that from the current situation, with the gradual digestion of large pigs for hurdles in the early stage and the support of the national purchasing and storage policy, it is expected that the prices of live pigs and pork in the second half of the year will be stable and consolidate
.
 t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

　　Wan Jinsong, Director of the Price Department of the National Development and Reform Commission, pointed out that the excessive drop in live pig prices has been curbed, and the confidence of farmers has been restored
.
It is expected that the number of slaughters will decrease from July to August, and the effect of purchasing, storing and supporting the market will gradually appear.
It is expected that the price of live pigs will continue to rebound in stages in the future
.
In the next step, we will continue to track market prices, issue early warning information in a timely manner, actively carry out purchasing and storage, and further strengthen regulation and adjustment when necessary to prevent large fluctuations in the prices of live pigs and pork
.
t3h China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry