Soybean meal and fish meal prices are firm in Japan

Introduction: according to the report of Japan economic news on November 7, the market price of soybean meal and fish meal, which are widely used in Japan to produce raw materials for livestock feed, is now in a strong tone Due to the aftereffect of mad cow disease, the meat and bone meal, which could have accounted for a large proportion of feed raw materials, can't be reused now Therefore, the vacancy of 400000 tons per year is placed in front of the feed raw material market Naturally, the demand for soybean meal and fish meal is greatly increased, which obviously is the main reason for the high price of soybean meal and fish meal in the Japanese market The general view of market participants is that the market of soybean meal and fish meal will be strong for some time in the future, that is to say, by the end of this year And the change of the commodity market will make the operating cost of feed manufacturers generally rise, and even make the input-output worsen Soybean meal is a by-product of soybean oil extraction In Japan, the international market price of the Chicago Board of trade (CBE) for more than three months is generally used as a reference for the monthly pricing of small quantities of soybean meal This practice has always been used, and feed wholesalers do the same for sales to livestock farmers The selling price in November was about 41 yen per kilogram of soybean meal Although the price is lower than the international market price of the Chicago Mercantile Exchange in October, it has been suspended at the selling price level of soybean meal in September There is a great relationship between the fluctuation of market price and the quantity of goods in stock At the end of September this year, the national soybean meal inventory in Japan was 95000 tons, which was 33% lower than that in the same period of 2000 The decline of one-third share made people feel the imbalance between supply and demand In addition, due to the sluggish personal purchase caused by the economic downturn, Japanese oil extraction manufacturers are generally adjusting their production plans downward to reduce inventory as much as possible, which also causes the decline of soybean meal production On the other hand, the urgent situation is that it is suspected that the raw material of meat and bone meal is infected with BSE Most livestock are forbidden to use the feed mixed with meat and bone meal, so the demand for meat and bone meal as a substitute for feed materials has increased dramatically, and the supply and demand relationship has become tense Among the soybean meal futures traded on the Tokyo Grain Exchange, the supply and demand of soybean meal delivered in May 2002 will rise this year due to insufficient quantity under the condition that the demand of the whole feed market is expected to decrease while the market is weak Fish meal is also a bulk commodity in feed materials At present, the wholesale price (delivery at import port) of Chilean fish meal is about 101500 yen per ton, which is 7.4% higher than that of the same size and delivery conditions in September However, this year's fish meal production in Chile has declined compared with previous years due to the decrease of fishing quantity, and the demand for fish meal, which is mainly used for fish farming, has become tense At present, feed manufacturers are scrambling to buy fish meal for this part of use, so the supply and demand of fish meal in the whole market is not optimistic In addition, the market of corn for feed is relatively weak at present because the negotiations between Japanese feed producers and importers ended before the outbreak of BSE The export price of corn to Japan is about US $113 per ton (near future, delivery at import port), which is 9.6% cheaper than that of imported corn with the same specifications and delivery conditions in September The supply quantity of compound feed on the market in Japan does not fluctuate greatly at present, but shows a state of horizontal arrangement However, with the relatively cold demand for meat in Japan, the number of domestic animals raised in Japan will be reduced In order to reduce the extra cost of increasing the price of beef and fish meal, feed manufacturers are avoiding the increase of corn price and have adopted the early start of new trade negotiations on delivery after the beginning of next year, which also leads to the fall of corn price Japan's feed manufacturers have raised their factory listing prices from October to November after seeing a general rise in the prices of major feed materials However, the end-user, i.e the large and small livestock farmers in Japan, is worried about the impact of BSE on their income, and whether the price increase can be fully implemented This will be a delicate market phenomenon.