The price turning point is expected to fall by half

June 7, business club news as China's large use of popular Chinese herbal medicine variety 37, the current price has increased by 20 times compared with the lowest in 2006, the downstream pharmaceutical enterprises have lost money for three consecutive years However, the industry said that the high fever will subside this year and next At the same time, the rational return of the price of Panax notoginseng will also drive the overall cooling of the price of traditional Chinese medicine Thirty seven prices are expected to drop by half compared with last year Some pharmaceutical companies are hoarding and speculating, and Yunnan is suffering from drought and natural disasters As a result, supply fails to keep up with demand In recent three years, the annual gap in thirty seven prices has reached 2 million kg, and the price of thirty seven has continued to rise According to the monitoring of Yunnan Wenshan No.37 Research Institute, since this year, the overall average price at the highest time has risen to 600 yuan / kg, and the price of the head of Panax notoginseng (the connecting part of the main root and the pole) has reached the level of 860 yuan / kg The highest price this year is 20 times the lowest in 2006 According to several enterprises in the industry, the high price of 37 has brought heavy cost pressure to downstream production enterprises, and most of them have been in a loss state for three consecutive years Cui Xiuming, President of Yunnan Wenshan notoginseng Research Institute, said that the two products with the largest dosage of notoginseng are Xuesaitong series and compound Danshen series In addition to three Xuesaitong powder injection production enterprises, the oral preparation has certain profits in addition to the two products of Xuesaitong dropping pill and Xuesaitong Soft Capsule, and the oral preparation has almost all losses in addition to the products The production enterprises only use low production to overcome the difficulties In addition to the compound Danshen dropping pill, the traditional compound danshen tablet has a very serious price inversion phenomenon, most of the production enterprises can only stop production However, according to the latest report from Yunnan Wenshan No.37 Research Institute, from the perspective of planting and development of No.37 in 2012, the downward price of No.37 will be the general trend In 2012, the planting area of Yunnan's Sanchi production area reached about 160000 mu, the highest level ever Among them, in 2012, the harvesting area of Sanqi is about 50000 mu, and the estimated output can reach 8.5 million kg, while the current annual demand for Sanqi is about 7 million kg Therefore, the price of 37 should fall to about 300 yuan / kg, half of the current average price In addition to the fact that the output of Panax notoginseng is expected to increase to the highest level in nearly five years, Cui Xiuming also said, "if there is no influence of extreme climate and policy factors, the planting area of Panax notoginseng in Yunnan will reach more than 240000 mu in 2013, which will double that of 2007 Among them, the harvesting area is more than 60000 mu, and the output is likely to exceed the 10 million kg mark The situation of oversupply will appear In 2014, the area of 37 harvest is only calculated as 120000 mu, and it will reach more than 18 million kg If this situation occurs, the price decline of March 7th will be inevitable As a symbol of the price trend of traditional Chinese medicine, nearly every price rise of traditional Chinese medicine in the past three years has been in the forefront of "three seven" Will this decline of "three seven" drive the price decline of other varieties? Jia Haibin, deputy director of traditional Chinese medicine information center of China Association of traditional Chinese medicine, believes that "three seven" prices indeed have a gradual downward trend However, the most rapid decline is expected to be in 2013, and whether the driving effect can appear remains to be comprehensively analyzed in all aspects Information from www.tcd.com also shows that the overall trend of TCD this year has been declining In the first two years, drug market transactions were active, some varieties were affected by drought and rain, and businesses all over the country were hoarding The high-efficiency benefits for two consecutive years also promoted the enthusiasm of drug farmers and farmers for planting unprecedented high In particular, the situation of seed retention and seedling grabbing was serious all over the country last year, with the prices of many seeds and seedlings doubling continuously It is expected that in the second half of this year and next year, the output of medicinal materials will be larger than that of sales, and the time for both old and new products to be digested will be extended The industry believes that the second half of 2012 will not be optimistic.