The price of pigs is going up! Production capacity is restored to annual jokes

Statistics show that pork prices have been rising for a month, pig prices from the end of November 2020 the average price of 29 yuan / kg rose to today's 35 yuan / kg, up 6 yuan / kg, a bit unexpected.
, the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs released information that by the end of November 2020, the country's pig storage column and can breed sow storage column has returned to the annual level of more than 90%.
is the disclosure that pig farming has returned to the annual level of 90 percent, on the other hand is the rising price of pigs and meat prices, what is going on? A number of aquaculture experts said that at this stage the pig market is still a seller's market, whether restored to 80% or 90%, after all, is not fully recovered.
At the same time, under the development of the epidemic, imported frozen meat is facing consumption problems, consumers turn to buy relatively assured fresh meat, so that the domestic pork supply gap has widened, as an important reason to promote the recent rise in pig prices.
of pig prices has further expanded according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs data, in February 2020, pig prices reached the highest point, after breaking through the 38 yuan / kg level line fell back; In July 2020, the price of pigs will again approach 38 yuan/kg.
December 2020, pig prices are again approaching 38 yuan/kg.
2020, pig prices continue to rise, pig supply constraints and capacity gaps have become the focus of industry attention.
Originally the lack of domestic pigs, China's large number of imports of foreign frozen meat to make up for domestic demand, but since November 2020, more than a dozen provinces and cities across the country concentrated on the outbreak of imported frozen meat new crown virus test positive events, so that the public on the safety of imported frozen meat has doubts and concerns, the continuous explosion of imported frozen meat new crown nucleic acid test positive also affected the residents' acceptance of frozen consumption.
, in the New Year's Day and other traditional holidays when the peak demand season, imports of frozen meat face difficulties, the market gap significantly enlarged in the short term.
the second half of the year, there is still a great deal of uncertainty On December 30, 2020, Tiankang Bio disclosed plans for a non-public share issue, proposing to raise no more than 2.1 billion yuan for piglet breeding, pig fattening and replenishment.
Wei Hongyang, deputy director of the Animal husbandry and veterinary bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, said recently: "It is expected that pig production capacity will fully return to normal in the first half of 2021, according to the six-month fertilization cycle, the second half of 2021, pig production is likely to reach the level of normal years."
" General sow from pregnancy to piglet birth needs 4 months, 1 month after piglet weight reached 7 kg out of the column to fattening, raised to commodity pig out of the column needs 5 months, you can judge the next 10 months from the situation of commercial pig out of the column.
according to the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs in November 2020 can breed sows have been restored to the annual level of more than 90% of the judgment, the second half of 2021 pig out of the column or close to the perennal level.
production capacity has increased the supply of pigs, but has also raised expectations of a decline in pig prices.
Li Weifeng, chairman of the Guangdong Agricultural Industry Fund and general manager of Guangdong Innovation Center, said there would be no major outbreak in the future, and that perhaps our generation would not necessarily see a pig price of more than 20 yuan.
more than a year, Guangdong and other places pig production progress is very fast.
prices will fall in 2021 compared with sky-high prices in 2020, and low prices are highly likely in 2022.
when pig prices fall, many other industries, such as real estate, may leave the market midway through, and by 2022 it is not ruled out that anyone will sell a pig farm at half price.
Tao Idashan, chairman of The Tang Dynasty, has also said publicly that, according to incomplete statistics, China's major pig-breeding enterprises have released the size of pig-raising projects under construction or will be built will reach 2 billion head, while China's pork consumption is only 650 million head, the future pig industry will be overcapacity, pork prices will fall to 8-10 yuan / kg.
, however, compared with these long-term forecasts, Xu Chunyu, vice chairman of Zhengda Group's agro-pastoral food company (China), has focused on the end of the first quarter of 2021.
" at the end of the first quarter pig prices can hold 25 yuan / kg is a key window.
" Xu Chunyu believes that the outbreak will have a greater impact on market supply and demand, if the price can not hold 25 yuan / kg, then the price is expected to decline all the way, and if held, the full-year price will be relatively strong.
, purchasing director of Henan Tiankanghong Exhibition, said market uncertainty remained high in the second half of 2021.
is whether the amount of frozen meat imports is further released, and the second is the amount of sows and pigs that can breed.
expected that in the second half of next year, the stock of sows and pigs can basically return to normal year levels, the price is expected to remain at 19-23 yuan / kg. Zhang Lili, a researcher in the pig industry at
ZhuoTron Information, said that without major outbreaks and major policy changes, pig prices in 2021 may show an overall downward trend, and production capacity will be released or accelerated in the second half of the year, although the end of September 2021 coincides with the Mid-Autumn Festival boost, there is a small increase in the market, but the overall forecast for September 2021 national average pig prices or 21.5-22.5 yuan / kg.
source: Securities Times, headline changed.
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