The price of piglets rose threefold for the first time in 13 months

Since the operation of domestic pig futures, the market is dominated by stability, and market sentiment is not volatile.
in the early hedging and "insurance and futures" funds actively entered the market, the on-the-shelf price came to 24-26 yuan / kg range.
the author believes that this price fluctuation range is expected to be supported by a number of factors to achieve an upward shift.
, the outbreak of swine fever in Africa continues to pose a serious threat to the process of breeding recovery; On the other hand, inefficient farming limits the actual number of pigs that can be provided by the same number of sows.
, the deeper discount in the futures market also supports the market price to some extent, while cost and other factors limit the space below.
of production capacity recovery, according to the data released by the relevant institutions, the number of sows that can breed in December 2020 decreased by 1.68 percent month-on-month, the first month-on-month decrease since the bottom of the sow breeding column in January 2020.
the author believes that there are three main reasons for the month-on-month decline in the number of sows that can breed: first, by the influence of African swine fever, can breed sows by the threat of swine fever led to the production capacity of the elimination; The second is the replacement of three-yuan sow, because the three-yuan sow has fewer tires, the actual use time is shorter, a large number of three-yuan return sows have the necessity of elimination; Third, the seasonal production capacity of the Spring Festival will also lead to the elimination of some sows.
compared with the previous market expectations of a slow recovery of the deposit bar, the deposit bar data actually show positive and negative alternating fluctuations will lead to the final column less than expected, thereby raising the market's low expectations of prices.
The average price of piglets is still rising at present, the national average price of piglets has continued to rise, which not only proves that the piglet supply caused by weak pig production capacity is tight, but also foreshadows the future pig out of the column costs will remain high.
the price of piglets has been rising across the board recently, reflecting very clearly the supply and demand relationship between piglets and the corresponding six months later.
the level of supply and demand, the high price of piglets will also become an important part of the future cost of piglets.
compared with the African swine plague before, piglet prices rose about three times, while corn, soybean meal prices are also high, and epidemic prevention and death and other amortization costs further pushed up the overall cost of pig farming.
estimates, under the current piglet price level, the cost of buying piglets out of the column is basically more than 28 yuan / kg, the cost of self-breeding is also maintained at more than 19 yuan / kg.
the author believes that in the overall supply of pigs tight, pig prices below the cost support will be more stable.
large enterprises sales promotion Although from supply and demand and cost, the market is optimistic about the future pig price expectations, but the reality is that before and after the Spring Festival in the seasonal price decline period, in the state of spot decline, the futures market wait-and-see sentiment is relatively strong, the market for spot price down risk to maintain a cautious attitude.
, however, the reversal of the futures market is often ahead of the spot, if the spot market after the establishment of the bottom position, the futures market may have completed the turnaround.
, large listed companies with better risk control will gradually release their sales data reports in the future.
the author expects that most enterprises will still maintain the trend of sales promotion, some enterprises can even reach a higher than expected level, which will be a certain degree of market pressure.
, in addition to focusing on the number of columns, but also need to pay attention to the actual structure of the columns and the overall market structure changes.
Overall, under the support of cost, the pig market is facing the threat of African swine fever, the price of the period to form a certain support, coupled with the current futures deeper discount, once the price fell less than expected after the Spring Festival, it is expected to form a trend rebound opportunity.
the current multi-directional profit-loss ratio is relatively appropriate and can be tried with the risk under control.