The price of live pigs has rebounded to 8 yuan per catty. The fourth quarter will be a pig farm...

At present, the listed pig companies have fallen into a collective "blood loss"

The giants can't bear the daily loss of 200 million yuan

The "last perseverance" of the pig industry has also fallen

Among the 16 listed pig companies that have announced their performance forecasts for the first three quarters, Wen's shares, with the most dismal performance, lost 7.

The pig industry has intensified losses

Fundraising, salary cuts, layoffs.

Panic in the current pig industry is also increasing

Listed pig companies are difficult to change the slaughter plan

It is worth noting that although listed pig companies are trying their best to reduce production capacity, few listed pig companies have changed their slaughter plans

A reporter from China Business Daily counted the slaughter data published by the top nine listed pig companies

Kong Liang, the head of the Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Bureau of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, publicly stated that since March, the number of newborn piglets per month on large-scale pig farms has been more than 30 million and has continued to grow

At present, it may be difficult for listed pig companies to change the slaughter rhythm

Live pig prices have risen by more than 50% in less than a month

Soon after 16 listed pig companies collectively handed over their loss-making "transcripts", the price of live pigs ushered in a rebound

"In the past few days when the price of live pigs has risen, farmers have been more excited

Why did this round of live pig prices rise? Kong Hailan told a reporter from China Business Daily that the price of pigs rebounded after the National Day.

Guo Gang, a pig analyst at the Agricultural Products Division of Shanghai Iron and Steel Union, also believes that the rise in pig prices is mainly driven by market sentiment

Can the pig industry usher in a turnaround in the fourth quarter

Kong Liang said that if the production capacity is not substantially reduced, the pig price downturn will be difficult to reverse, especially in the off-season consumption after the Spring Festival next year, the price of live pigs may continue to fall and cause heavy losses in the pig breeding industry

Industry insiders said that the live pig market in the fourth quarter will face challenges

"At present 50 million to 52 million tons of pork can meet national consumption
.
" Lu Pin, an agricultural product researcher at China Everbright Futures Research Institute, said: "The average weight of live pigs in the first half of this year was significantly higher than the normal year, an increase of 15 kg from 2017.
It is expected to be quarterly The pig stock will reach the balance of supply and demand in the market at 400-420 million heads
.
Therefore, whether it is from the perspective of the normal stock of 41 million reproductive sows or from the perspective of pig stocks, the current market pork supply is Relatively surplus
.
"

Zhu Zengyong, a researcher at the Beijing Institute of Animal Husbandry and Veterinary Medicine, Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, said that the live pig inventory continued to increase from April to September, indicating that the overall supply of commercial pigs in the fourth quarter will still increase significantly year-on-year, and pork prices may fluctuate at a low level.

.
However, with the beginning of the second round of purchasing and storage and the peak of bacon production beginning in mid-to-late November, seasonal consumption of pork will increase.
Pork prices may rebound seasonally in the middle and late quarters of the fourth quarter, but there is no room for rebound.
Will be too big
.
At present, the turning point of the pig cycle has not yet arrived, and market risk management still needs to be done well this year, including the first quarter of next year
.