The price of live pigs has fallen for 22 consecutive weeks, and "Pig is strong" has hit the PPI

 　　Monitoring data from the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs on 500 bazaars across the country showed that in the fourth week of June, the national average price of live pigs was 13.
76 yuan/kg.
Starting from 36.
01 yuan/kg in the third week of January, it has fallen for 22 consecutive weeks.
The decline reached 62%
.

　　From a dynamic perspective, the most important factor determining the future trend of pork prices is the number of sows available on the supply side
.
According to the data of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs, the domestic live pig stock is stable at around 417 million.
If a total of 43.
65 million reproductive sows can provide 16 fat pigs per year, then the existing reproductive sows The number of fat pigs provided by the stock in one year can reach more than 698 million, which corresponds to the normal consumption of 500 million to 600 million pigs per year by the Chinese people, which means that the current production efficiency of reproductive sows can fully meet the demand, and as long as The supply is in a state of continuous easing, and pork prices will hardly show a rise in excitement
.
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　　Looking at the demand side, according to tradition, pork has always been an important dish on the people's dinner table, but this consumption program has been increasingly deconstructed by consumption upgrades and the recalibration of consumption behavior
.
On the one hand, the Engel coefficient of national residents is 30.
2% in 2020, a sharp drop of nearly 10 percentage points compared to 10 years ago.
The decline in the Engel coefficient reflects the decrease in the proportion of residents’ food expenditure in total consumption, including pork consumption.
On the other hand, the focus of consumption of domestic residents, especially more urban residents, has shifted to the level of improving the quality of life.
Light food consumption with the purpose of "low fat, zero calorie, weight loss, and weight reduction" has attracted more and more people.
It is popular among first-tier cities and spread to second-tier, third-tier and even fourth-tier cities
.
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　　Of course, there are different opinions on whether eating less or not pork can achieve the effect of weight loss and weight loss, but the calorie and fat content of pork significantly exceeds that of chicken, beef, and fish.
Therefore, eating less red meat and more white meat is unquestionable.
It has become a substitute consumption tendency of many people, and the lighter consumption of consumption further reminds us that pork is no longer a necessity for many people’s lives.
If the price of pork rises again in the future, people can "vote with their feet" on pork.
And "voting by hand" for chicken, fish, etc.
with lower fat content, and this substitution will become more and more intense in the context of light food consumption, spread more widely and faster
.
The data shows that in the past 20 years, it has declined at an average annual rate of about one percentage point, and under the influence of substitution consciousness, the pork consumption ratio will continue to decrease, which will squeeze the rising space of pork prices
.
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　　According to the latest monthly statistics released by the National Bureau of Statistics, the national consumer price (CPI) rose by 1.
3% year-on-year in May, a record high since October last year.
At the same time, the factory price of industrial products (PPI) rose by 9.
0% year-on-year, setting a record in 2008.
The highest in history since October, but it is worth noting that food prices rose only 0.
3% in May due to the sharp drop in pork prices.
For the food sub-item that accounts for nearly 30% of the CPI weight, its price Being suppressed has undoubtedly played a big pull-down effect on the upward trend of CPI
.
However, the biggest contribution of pork prices is not to directly squeeze the upward space of CPI, but to suppress the transmission channel of PPI to CPI, and ease the risk of further upward CPI
.
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　　The analysis found that, unlike most food prices, which are relatively weak, non-food prices in the CPI, such as transportation and communication, entertainment and leisure goods prices, all increased in May at different levels.
At the same time, refrigerators, televisions, washing machines, etc.
Other durable consumer goods have also increased significantly.
Both types of commodities are closely related to the increase in the prices of the means of production in the PPI.
For example, the increase in oil prices will drive up the price of air tickets and travel, and will also raise the production and manufacturing costs of durable consumer goods
.
In addition, food, clothing, and general daily necessities are the overlapping content of CPI and PPI.
The increase in the price of subsistence in the PPI will inevitably directly reflect the CPI
.
Therefore, it has to be admitted that the trajectory of the rise in PPI caused by the rise in global commodities and transmitted to the CPI has been very clear this year
.
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　　However, the practical results of the domestic market operation prove that only when the two are in a synchronized state can the PPI conduction to the CPI smoothly.
Without the resonance and response of the CPI, the conduction strength of the PPI will be very limited
.
Based on the current reality, although the weight of pork in the CPI is only about 2.
5%, due to its high year-on-year volatility, pork has become the most important sub-item that affects the CPI year-on-year
.
From the actual impact results, based on the relevance of the industry, the decline in pork prices will flow back to corn, soybean meal and other food products, which can at least restrain the pace and intensity of the latter’s rise; at the same time, the substitution of meat in the horizontal direction is not a substitute for each other.
One-way, sluggish pork prices will also drag the prices of chicken and beef to a certain extent, thereby reducing the risk of food price increases as a whole.
As long as food prices are suppressed, the CPI will basically lose its upward momentum.
In this case, even if the PPI sings and sings, it may be high and low
.
In fact, looking at the trend in the first five months, CPI rose only 0.
4% year-on-year, while PPI reached 4.
4%.
The "scissors gap" between the two continues to expand, indicating that the former did not follow in the footsteps of the latter or was transmitted by the latter.
, The role played by the low pork price should be indispensable
.
(The author is a director of the China Marketing Association and a professor of economics)Adz China Feed Industry Information Network-Based on feed, serving animal husbandry