The price of domestic edible oil will fall in the later period

Introduction: in the near future, the overall performance of domestic edible oil market is relatively dull Soybean oil prices continue to be depressed, peanut oil prices have been bleak correction, palm oil prices have risen, but the future market is still not optimistic In terms of the current domestic and foreign market development situation, the author believes that the price of domestic edible oil market will change in the later period, especially in the middle and last ten days of April 1 CBOT soybean prices fell sharply Recently, Chicago futures soybean and soybean meal prices fell sharply In May, soybean contracts fell 21 cents to 1024.5 cents per bushel The recent sharp drop in soybean futures prices is mainly affected by the corn futures market Recently, Argentina soybean spot market price also fell, following the Chicago soybean market trend In addition, South American soybeans began to appear on the market At present, the hype of South American soybean production reduction has basically come to an end According to the latest USDA report, soybean production in South America in 2003 / 2004 is expected to be around 90 million tons, slightly less than last year's 91 million tons, but the CBOT soybean price is still in a downward trend Recently, the U.S Department of agriculture predicted that the sown area of soybean in 2004 would reach 75.41 million mu, exceeding the historical record of 74.266 million acres in 2001, and also higher than the average expectation of 74.445 million acres in the market and the average value of 73.4 million acres last year This data is the largest sown area of soybean in the history of the U.S and the first rebound after three consecutive years of decline in sown area At present, South American soybeans have begun to be harvested one after another, and will soon be fully listed in the near future, which will inevitably form a strong pressure on the market price of CBOT soybeans, so it will also affect the price of imported soybeans in China 2 A large number of imported soybeans have arrived in Hong Kong, and the arrival progress of imported soybeans has been accelerating since this year From January to February, China imported 3.82 million tons of soybeans, a year-on-year increase of 88.8%, including 1.98 million tons in January, a year-on-year increase of 53.1%, 1.84 million tons in February and 1.23 million tons in March According to the latest report, China's import of soybeans in April is estimated to reach 18-19 ships, with a total volume of nearly 1-1.05 million tons In May, the import of soybeans reached more than 2 million tons, most of which came from South America, while the U.S soybean arrivals are rare With the start-up of various oil plants, the domestic soybean oil production will increase rapidly, and the market price will face a decline 3 The impact of imported soybean oil: South American countries are famous for mass production and export of soybean oil With the listing of new soybean products, the output of South American soybean oil will grow rapidly In April, the newly produced soybean oil in South America will be launched in a centralized way, and the market price will also be pushed to a new low China's importers are bound to take advantage of this opportunity to increase the purchase volume of South American soybean oil According to relevant statistics, in January and February this year, China imported 550000 tons of soybean oil, far higher than 120000 tons in the same period last year Due to the outbreak of avian influenza in China, oil factories were shut down, and Chinese importers signed a large number of contracts for importing soybean oil According to the shipping schedule, the arrival will be centralized in March and April It is reported that the arrival volume in March alone will reach 200000 tons In addition, the soybean oil production of various oil plants is relatively large in the near future, and the supply of soybean oil in the first half of April will be very sufficient, which brings great pressure to the market price rise 4 A large amount of palm oil has arrived at the shore Although the price of palm oil in China has risen slightly at present, due to the obvious pressure on port inventory, the spot transaction in the market is still in a low state With the gradual warming of the weather, the pace of palm oil import will be accelerated; on the other hand, the current international price of palm oil has declined, and some Chinese buyers show new interest in purchasing, which provides a good opportunity for Chinese importers to enter the market In April, a large amount of palm oil will be concentrated in Hong Kong, and there is a price difference of more than 1000 yuan / ton between palm oil and soybean oil Therefore, the large-scale listing of palm oil will inevitably impact the domestic edible oil market Fifthly, peanut oil market blending phenomenon is serious for a period of time, manufacturers have different opinions on whether peanut oil can continue to run at a high level in the later period From the perspective of the whole edible oil market at present, it is expected that the sharp increase of peanut oil price in the later period will be beyond our ability Although the price of raw materials is currently stable due to the tight supply, the consumption of peanut oil is only in the particularity of several cities in the North, and the processing and sales market of the whole crude oil market is quite chaotic at present, and many dealers mix it with peanut oil Mixed with palm oil (at present, palm oil and peanut oil have a price advantage of more than 5000 yuan), the purity of market crude oil is greatly affected, and the cost price is inevitably under pressure Vi the rapeseed harvest is coming According to the information from the relevant departments, in 2004, the planting area of domestic rapeseed reached 104 million mu, an increase of 4.3 million mu over the previous year, and the output will increase over the previous year As domestic rapeseed began to be harvested and listed at the end of April and the beginning of May, it will directly affect the trend of domestic oil market A large number of rapeseed is going to be listed in an all-round way, and the pressure of centralized listing will also have an impact on the domestic edible oil market VII Imported grease and oil are still abundant The Ministry of agriculture has issued permanent regulations on genetically modified soybeans, so that there are no policy variables in soybean import, and oil sources tend to be stable China and ASEAN have established a free trade zone since January 1 this year This year, 10% tariff will be implemented for oil import, and quota will be cancelled for mixed oil The main import of palm oil, palm kernel oil and coconut oil in China will be unrestricted Before the port, palm oil and other goods are abundant with large stock; this year, China's rapeseed import will increase; the demand for soybean meal will increase and the price will rise, which will drive the increase of soybean oil supply, especially the large increase of finished small package edible oil; since April, Brazil and Argentina in South America will be listed in large quantities In a word, under the influence of a large number of imports of soybean, soybean oil and palm oil, a good harvest of domestic rapeseed, and the change of national oil storage, the domestic market price of edible oil will decline with the trend in April On the one hand, the domestic oil supply is still sufficient, while the market demand is hard to cheer up, and the downward pressure on soybean oil price still exists On the other hand, the blending ratio of cotton oil and palm oil in soybean oil will be larger and larger with the temperature rising obviously in April Due to the relatively low price of cotton oil and palm oil, the market volume will increase significantly, which will squeeze the market share of soybean oil At the same time, from May to June, the newly produced rapeseed will be fully listed, which will also impact the domestic soybean oil market However, in April, due to the further tightening of domestic soybean supply, the supply of imported soybeans is likely to be phased out, and local oil plants will reduce production and stop production due to the shortage of raw material supply, which will lead to the decline of soybean oil production, so it is difficult for soybean oil prices to fall further It is expected that the price of domestic edible oil market will continue to fluctuate and decrease in the future.