The pressure of RMB appreciation perplexes the domestic agricultural products market in the future

Introduction: since the beginning of April, Liandou and Zhengmai have declined by nearly 10% The author believes that this round of decline is not a simple adjustment, but a prelude to the arrival of a large-scale bear market, and the greater decline is still behind Although it is not easy to find the favorable evidence of agricultural products entering the bear market from the current supply and demand of spot goods, if we broaden our vision, we will find a factor that will have an important impact on China's economy and a major negative impact on domestic commodity futures is coming to us, which is the issue of RMB appreciation An analysis from Goldman Sachs research suggests that the yuan is now heavily undervalued The dynamic equilibrium emerging market exchange rate model of Goldman Sachs shows that the appreciation of RMB by nearly 10% will make it return to its true value The rapid development of China's economy in the past 10 years is obvious to all, but at the same time, the exchange rate of RMB is still at the level of 10 years ago, which is inconceivable for a fast-growing economy Especially after the sharp rise of raw material prices in China last year, the pressure of RMB appreciation is more and more urgent As the growth rate of China's demand for raw materials exceeds that of supply, the prices of raw materials have soared The biggest increase is for those metals with the most tight supply and the largest demand in China, such as steel, iron ore, aluminum, lead and coal prices At the same time, the price of these metal products fell by 5% to 10% Chinese manufacturers have not passed on rising prices for raw materials and energy to consumers Xinqiao capital commented that China's trade situation has deteriorated significantly in the past year or two, and China is now expensive to buy and cheap to sell As the price of imported raw materials in China rises, but the price of export commodities keeps falling, this pressure makes the possibility of RMB exchange rate adjusting for the first time in 10 years more and more likely And some recent financial news also makes us feel that the pace of RMB appreciation is approaching On April 9, the people's Bank of China announced that it would raise the interest rate of deposit reserve of financial institutions by 0.5% Zhou Xiaochuan, governor of the people's Bank of China, pointed out recently that RMB is becoming an important currency in Asian and even global markets, and the requirement of full convertibility is becoming more and more prominent, so it is imperative to build a more market-oriented RMB trading platform; although he did not disclose the time table, his comments show that the RMB exchange rate may be loose On Monday, the bond market of Shanghai Stock Exchange saw a rare decline in history, writing three records a day: the Shanghai bond index closed at 93.92 points, a record low; the Shanghai bond index fell 1.12%, the biggest one-day decline; the decline of single securities exceeded 6% The decline in the exchange bond market was triggered by the collapse of long-term bonds The collapse of national debt shows that the appreciation of RMB may be imminent If there is 10% appreciation space for RMB, it is self-evident that there will be at least 10% decline space for domestic commodity futures In fact, if we put aside all the fundamental factors, the technical analysis has clearly shown the coming of the bear market Open the chart, both Liandou and Zhengmai have gone out of a complete five wave rising pattern since 2002, showing that the bull market cycle has ended, and the next adjustment will be very long, which is what we call the bear market Liandou 409 contract has peaked at 4100 yuan / ton, and the hard wheat 409 contract has also formed a significant downward break It can be said that the fall in April is only the first wave of attack coming from the bear market Domestic agricultural futures may rebound before May Day, but they can no longer reach a new high, and the rebound high is the best time for us to sell short.