The positive influence and disadvantageous factors of China's agriculture after entering WTO

Introduction: no matter from the perspective of short-term impact or long-term trend, China's accession to the WTO is beneficial to agriculture, mainly in the following aspects: 1 After China's accession to the WTO, China can enjoy the achievements made by the GATT countries in opening up trade, especially in tariff reduction over the past 40 years, and obtain the most favored nation treatment of most members in unconditional trade, especially the preferential treatment for developing countries, which creates a very favorable environment for China's agricultural internationalization and is conducive to China's effective use of the international trade Agricultural resources and market 2 It is beneficial for China to deepen the reform of rural economic system in accordance with international norms and establish a macro-control system of agriculture in line with the rules of market economy It will play a positive role in realizing the two transformations of agriculture, improving the comparative advantage and international competitiveness of agriculture, and enhancing the comprehensive production capacity of agriculture 3 It can flexibly use the relevant provisions of WTO and dispute settlement mechanism to protect domestic agricultural production and agricultural product market from the impact of large-scale import of foreign agricultural products Moreover, after China's accession to the WTO, China can also participate in the international multilateral agricultural trade negotiations as a member, maintain the international agricultural trade order and the interests of the majority of developing countries, and curb the unilateral trade actions and agricultural trade protectionism of a few developed countries For example, in the Uruguay Round negotiations, Japan and South Korea finally opened their rice market to a limited extent under various pressures China's rice was originally competitive in the Japanese and South Korean markets, but rice exporting countries such as the United States proposed to the WTO that Japan and South Korea's opening rice market was the outcome of the Uruguay Round negotiations, and only WTO members could enjoy it Because China is not a member of WTO, we can't export rice to Japan and South Korea After China's accession to the WTO, the above problems will no longer exist On the contrary, China can use the relevant provisions of the WTO and the dispute settlement mechanism to protect its own interests 4 It is conducive to reducing unfair treatment such as non-tariff restrictions on the export of agricultural products from other countries and promoting the entry of agricultural products into the international market After the Uruguay round, both developed and developing countries cancelled non-tariff measures and managed agricultural trade in the form of tariffs and tariff quotas, which greatly improved the export environment of agricultural products At present, potatoes exported to Europe by China are subject to discriminatory quantitative restrictions by the EU, which is not in line with the provisions of the WTO agricultural framework However, since China is not a member of the WTO, this discriminatory measure taken by the EU against China cannot be subject to WTO discipline After China's accession to the WTO, this problem will no longer exist 5 Expand the international market share of China's agricultural products After the Uruguay round, as developed countries reduce the level of agricultural protection and increase market access, it is conducive to China to seize the opportunity to expand agricultural exports The negative impact of China's accession to the WTO on agriculture is traditional industry Generally speaking, most of the population in developing countries is concentrated in the agricultural field due to the underdeveloped secondary and tertiary industries Agriculture is not only the base for the development of these countries, but also the protection of social stability The problem now is that a considerable number of developed countries have developed not only the secondary and tertiary industries, but also the agriculture They have a large amount of excess production capacity and try their best to push their agricultural products to the world, especially to the developing countries There is a big difference between agricultural products and industrial products, that is, when industrial products enter a country, they always bring in part of technology, while agricultural products are often products, and the technology and knowledge they contain are difficult to be used by importing countries Therefore, all developing countries take agriculture as an important industry to protect when they enter WTO In the earlier Uruguay negotiations, the agricultural issue was treated as a special issue and some preferential policies were given to developing countries China is a developing country, 70% of its population is in the countryside, and 50% of its labor force is engaged in primary industry production Therefore, in a series of multilateral negotiations on China's accession to the WTO, China has done its best to maintain agricultural stability Compared with the developed countries, China's agriculture has two disadvantages that are difficult to change First, our natural production conditions are much worse than those of major European and American countries Affected by monsoon climate and frequent drought and flood disasters, the main agricultural areas in China need large-scale farmland infrastructure construction, which greatly increases the cost of agricultural production European and American countries, with warm climate and abundant rainfall, are excellent areas for agricultural production Second, China's resource structure is seriously unreasonable, with more people and less land, and small production scale, which is an important feature of China's agriculture In general, a farmer in the United States needs to plant hundreds of hectares of land, and in Europe, it needs dozens to 100 hectares In China, the average production scale of farmers is only about 0.4 hectares We know that the technical situation can be changed, but the problems of poor natural conditions and small production scale can not be solved in a short time It is easy to understand that the poor natural conditions reduce the competitiveness So how does the small scale of production affect the international competitiveness of agriculture? First, the small scale of agricultural production makes the labor productivity very low It is uneconomical to adopt mechanized production with higher degree, because the labor force replaced by machinery still needs to share the agricultural income and greatly increase the cost when there is no stable way out for employment In the case of manual labor, the labor intensity of farmers is very high, and farmers will inevitably compare with the labor intensity of other production fields The result is either extensive management, reducing food production, or trying to improve prices Second, the low commodity rate associated with small-scale production has also driven up prices Taking grain as an example, the commodity rate of family farms in developed countries is almost 100%, but the production scale in China is small, and the commodity rate of grain production is only about 30% The value input of chemical fertilizer used in the production of rations should also be recovered in the sales of commodity grains, which will increase the cost of commodity grains The lower the commodity rate, the greater the impact Third, the transaction cost of small-scale production is high, and the circulation cost accounts for a large proportion of grain sales price The small scale of farmers' production makes the absolute income of agricultural production very small Assuming that farmers mainly grow food, the production is only enough to maintain a very low standard of living In 1998, according to the national purchase price higher than the market price, the national average net income per mu of grain production and its by-products was only 134.47 yuan, plus the working price of 135 yuan, a total of 269.47 yuan If 100 mu land is planted per household, the income is still considerable, but if only 7 mu land is planted per household, the income is only 1886.29 yuan, calculated by 4 people per household, the per capita income is only 471.57 yuan, which is a very poor population The small scale of agricultural production determines the weak position of agriculture in the whole national economy Under such a resource structure, excessive import of food may have serious consequences Only from the perspective of domestic economy: first, a large number of foreign low-cost grain will enter China, which will cause the bankruptcy of farmers The special bankruptcy of farmers in China does not mean that they are unable to pay off their debts and operate, but that agriculture is going backward to the natural economy and the commodity rate of grain production is obviously falling The direct consequence of the bankruptcy of farmers is that a large number of agricultural labor force flows into cities and non-agricultural industries, disturbing the normal economic order Second, the income of farmers will decline significantly Every 1% drop in the grain commodity rate means that the cash income of farmers across the country will be reduced by several billion yuan, and the net income will also be significantly reduced What's more, if farmers focus on grain production, the cash income of grain farmers will be reduced by 30% as the commodity rate of grain is only 30%, and every 10% decrease in commodity rate will undoubtedly widen the income gap between urban and rural areas and aggravate the contradiction between urban and rural areas Third, it will also cause a serious blow to industrial production At present, Chinese farmers need to buy about 200 billion yuan of agricultural means of production every year, which is a big market If agriculture goes backward to the natural economy, then farmers will reduce the purchase of agricultural means of production in a large amount In addition, the consumer goods market shrinkage caused by the decline of farmers' income will lead to a serious crisis in industrial production If the sales of industrial products in rural areas are reduced by 50 billion yuan, then due to the chain reaction of related industries, the whole society will have hundreds of billion yuan of unsalable industrial products Therefore, China's accession to the WTO is a historic turning point for its economy Although it will promote the change of China's economic system, especially the foreign trade system in a short period of time, and promote the process of China's agricultural internationalization, China's agricultural sector will not be able to join the WTO under the circumstances that the production conditions are obviously unfavorable and the conditions for agricultural internationalization are not yet available Avoid big challenges In the negotiation of China's accession to the WTO, the problem of agriculture has become one of the difficulties in the negotiation of China's accession to the WTO Specifically speaking, in the negotiation of China's accession to the WTO, China should, in accordance with the WTO rules, to a certain extent give up part of the domestic market and reduce trade protection, so the direct adverse impact on China's agriculture is mainly manifested in the following aspects: 1 The domestic agricultural product market is facing the pressure of opening to the outside world In the past, the price of some agricultural products, such as grain, was lower than the international market price for a long time, so there was no import tariff The import restrictions on agricultural products were mainly non-tariff measures such as import license and quota, and monopoly operation was carried out through state-owned import and export companies However, according to the provisions of the WTO agricultural agreement, in the future, each member can only restrict the import of agricultural products through tariff measures, and can no longer use non-tariff measures The change of import protection means that China will gradually open its domestic market according to international rules Therefore, with China's accession to the WTO, the opening up of domestic agricultural products market is inevitable, and domestic agricultural products will face the impact and challenge of the world market 2 It will have an impact on domestic agricultural production, mainly in two aspects: First, while trade protection is relatively reduced, the low price advantage of China's agricultural products is gradually disappearing with the increasing cost of agricultural products At present, the price of main domestic agricultural products (especially grain price) is close to or exceeds the international market price, and the domestic agricultural products market will face the impact of low price agricultural products in the international market Second, the space and strength of the government's regulation of agricultural production will be affected Although most of the current agricultural policies implemented in China are in line with the "green box policy" of the agricultural agreement and do not need to make a concession commitment, in the future, China's support in the price protection system of agricultural products, the price subsidy of means of production and other aspects will be limited 3 It is possible to increase the foreign exchange burden of China's import of grain and oil Because our grain variety structure is not enough, we need to import the grain varieties we lack every year, such as durum wheat from the United States However, in the past, we could still export some grain to achieve the balance of import and export Now that our grain can't be exported, it will become a net importer, and the situation will change According to the prediction of FAO and other international agencies, the developed countries weakened agriculture in the Uruguay round of agricultural negotiations