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;
According to past experience, around the Golden Week of "Eleventh", it is the time when the traditional new season corn is concentrated on the volume, and domestic corn begins to enter the alternating supply period
.
"Now the old grain is basically gone, the price of new grain per catty is 0.
95-0.
98 yuan, the same period last year was about 0.
85 yuan / jin, the highest price is only 0.
92 yuan / jin
.
" Not only that, Pan Liang (pseudonym), who grows corn in Heilongjiang Province, also happily told the "China Times" reporter that this year's corn production is generally one percent more than in previous years, and the average corn yield per hectare is about 14 tons to 15 tons, and the highest yield is currently 18 tons
.
On October 12, the "Analysis of the Supply and Demand Situation of China's Agricultural Products in October 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "Analysis") released by the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that this month, the 2021/22 corn market year ended, and the annual corn import volume is expected to be 22 million tons, up 2 million tons
from the previous month.
The annual average wholesale price of corn in domestic producing areas is 2,641 yuan per ton, which is basically the same
as the previous year.
The average annual price of imported corn after landed tax was 2,876 yuan per ton, up 19.
6%
from the previous year.
Hong Tao, director of the Institute of Business Economics of Beijing Technology and Business University and president of the China Food (Agricultural Products) Safety E-commerce Research Institute, told the China Times reporter that in the case of good corn production in the new season in 2022, China's corn supply is sufficient
in the new year.
However, the cost of corn production in China has increased this year, mainly due to the increase
in costs caused by the impact of drought and flooding in some places.
"At present, the peak period of supply and demand procurement is gradually approaching, and corn has begun to be listed in large quantities, but the current transaction price in various places is relatively unstable
.
It is understood that the corn market price in East China, North China and Northeast China is currently rising, while the corn price in Central, Northwest, Southwest and South China has fallen slightly, with obvious differences, but from the overall overall perspective of the overall price of corn shows an upward trend
.
Yuan Shuai, executive vice president of the Institute of Agricultural Cultural Tourism Industry Revitalization, said
in an interview with a reporter from the China Times.
Corn is in abundant supply
"In 2022, the amount of corn replaced by aged rice in China's stock is about 25 million tons, plus imported corn and sorghum, barley, cassava flour, etc.
, the carry-over inventory of the domestic corn market is higher than in
2021.
Therefore, in the case of good corn production in the new season in 2022, China's corn supply is sufficient
in the new year.
Hong Tao said
.
In fact, according to relevant data from the General Administration of Customs, China's corn imports in August were 1.
8 million tons, down 44.
4% from the same period last year; From January to August, a total of 16,930 tons were imported, a cumulative decrease of 20.
9%
from the same period last year.
For the decline in imports, Hong Tao believes that it is due to the impact of
factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the reduction of production in production areas such as France.
In addition, "oil eats grain", some countries have strengthened corn processing transformation to produce oil substitutes, resulting in an increase in international corn prices, and the price gap between domestic and foreign is large, affecting imports
.
Although the main corn producing areas have been affected by the weather recently, the new corn harvesting progress is slow, but in Hong Tao's view, with the support of national policies, China's corn yield and total yield are basically stable, and it is expected that the average yield of China's new corn will be an increase year
compared with 2021.
Specifically, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Henan, Shanxi and Tianjin are the years of increased production, and the corn yield increased by more than
1.
5% compared with 2021.
Liaoning, Jiangsu, Hubei and Sichuan were reduced in yields, and corn yields decreased slightly compared with 2021, while the remaining provinces were flat producing years, and the increase and decrease in corn yields compared with 2021 were all within
1.
5%.
According to the relevant data of Zhuochuang Information, the harvesting progress in North China and Northeast China, the main producing areas, has slowed down, the new season corn has not yet been concentrated, and the surplus of aged grain is not much
.
In the case of the tight overall supply pattern of the corn market, some grain holders are reluctant to sell at a high price, thereby supporting the current corn market price
.
The corn market is on the strong side
In Yuan Shuai's view, China's corn consumption is mainly used as feed, and the use of corn feed consumption accounts for about 60%
of the total consumption.
"Analysis" shows that with the improvement of pig breeding profits, feed demand has rebounded, corn feed consumption has increased steadily, and industrial consumption has remained stable
.
In fact, since mid-September, with the launch of spring corn with obvious cost-performance advantages in some parts of North China, and the high price of stale grain in Northeast China, feed enterprises' enthusiasm for purchasing stale grain has declined, and the intention to replenish warehouses has gradually shifted from stale grain to new grain
.
So can downstream demand continue to support stronger corn prices?
It is understood that the current feed production as a whole is still recovering, corn consumption of pork and poultry feed, production continues to rise significantly compared with the previous month, but there is still a gap compared with the previous year's output, "according to the law of the pig cycle, whenever the market pork price rises, the market price of corn often shows a downward trend
.
" In terms of comprehensive current factors, in the next stage, the domestic pork price in the fourth quarter may still fluctuate, accompanied by ups and downs, but there is no possibility of large fluctuations, so the impact on the price of corn will not fluctuate greatly
.
Yuan Shuai said
.
For the future corn price trend, Hong Tao believes that the current price of corn in the national reserve has risen, the price of high-quality fresh corn is better, and the market price of new corn grain will be basically stable
.
Yuan Shuai said that at present, domestic corn prices are in a relatively optimistic situation, with a large number of new corn continuous listing, domestic corn prices will face a certain correction
.
At the same time, he highlighted the increase in the cost of corn production in
our country this year.
"This year, there has been a large-scale drought in the southern part of China, and the northeast region has been affected by waterlogging, and the phenomenon of corn lodging is serious, in addition, this year's price has risen, the cost of planting land has increased, especially the increase
in fertilizer prices in the early stage.
" Therefore, in Yuan Shuai's view, under the combined influence of factors such as rising costs, changes in supply and demand, and market inflation counterforces, even if corn prices pull back, it is expected that the strength of the decline will not be very large
.
;
; According to past experience, around the Golden Week of "Eleventh", it is the time when the traditional new season corn is concentrated on the volume, and domestic corn begins to enter the alternating supply period
.
"Now the old grain is basically gone, the price of new grain per catty is 0.
95-0.
98 yuan, the same period last year was about 0.
85 yuan / jin, the highest price is only 0.
92 yuan / jin
.
" Not only that, Pan Liang (pseudonym), who grows corn in Heilongjiang Province, also happily told the "China Times" reporter that this year's corn production is generally one percent more than in previous years, and the average corn yield per hectare is about 14 tons to 15 tons, and the highest yield is currently 18 tons
.
On October 12, the "Analysis of the Supply and Demand Situation of China's Agricultural Products in October 2022" (hereinafter referred to as the "Analysis") released by the Market Early Warning Expert Committee of the Ministry of Agriculture and Rural Affairs showed that this month, the 2021/22 corn market year ended, and the annual corn import volume is expected to be 22 million tons, up 2 million tons
from the previous month.
The annual average wholesale price of corn in domestic producing areas is 2,641 yuan per ton, which is basically the same
as the previous year.
The average annual price of imported corn after landed tax was 2,876 yuan per ton, up 19.
6%
from the previous year.
from the previous month.
The annual average wholesale price of corn in domestic producing areas is 2,641 yuan per ton, which is basically the same
as the previous year.
The average annual price of imported corn after landed tax was 2,876 yuan per ton, up 19.
6%
from the previous year.
Hong Tao, director of the Institute of Business Economics of Beijing Technology and Business University and president of the China Food (Agricultural Products) Safety E-commerce Research Institute, told the China Times reporter that in the case of good corn production in the new season in 2022, China's corn supply is sufficient
in the new year.
However, the cost of corn production in China has increased this year, mainly due to the increase
in costs caused by the impact of drought and flooding in some places.
"At present, the peak period of supply and demand procurement is gradually approaching, and corn has begun to be listed in large quantities, but the current transaction price in various places is relatively unstable
.
It is understood that the corn market price in East China, North China and Northeast China is currently rising, while the corn price in Central, Northwest, Southwest and South China has fallen slightly, with obvious differences, but from the overall overall perspective of the overall price of corn shows an upward trend
.
Yuan Shuai, executive vice president of the Institute of Agricultural Cultural Tourism Industry Revitalization, said
in an interview with a reporter from the China Times.
Corn is in abundant supply
Corn is in abundance and corn is in abundant supply "In 2022, the amount of corn replaced by aged rice in China's stock is about 25 million tons, plus imported corn and sorghum, barley, cassava flour, etc.
, the carry-over inventory of the domestic corn market is higher than in
2021.
Therefore, in the case of good corn production in the new season in 2022, China's corn supply is sufficient
in the new year.
Hong Tao said
.
In fact, according to relevant data from the General Administration of Customs, China's corn imports in August were 1.
8 million tons, down 44.
4% from the same period last year; From January to August, a total of 16,930 tons were imported, a cumulative decrease of 20.
9%
from the same period last year.
For the decline in imports, Hong Tao believes that it is due to the impact of
factors such as the Russia-Ukraine conflict and the reduction of production in production areas such as France.
In addition, "oil eats grain", some countries have strengthened corn processing transformation to produce oil substitutes, resulting in an increase in international corn prices, and the price gap between domestic and foreign is large, affecting imports
.
Although the main corn producing areas have been affected by the weather recently, the new corn harvesting progress is slow, but in Hong Tao's view, with the support of national policies, China's corn yield and total yield are basically stable, and it is expected that the average yield of China's new corn will be an increase year
compared with 2021.
Specifically, Heilongjiang, Xinjiang, Ningxia, Henan, Shanxi and Tianjin are the years of increased production, and the corn yield increased by more than
1.
5% compared with 2021.
Liaoning, Jiangsu, Hubei and Sichuan were reduced in yields, and corn yields decreased slightly compared with 2021, while the remaining provinces were flat producing years, and the increase and decrease in corn yields compared with 2021 were all within
1.
5%.
According to the relevant data of Zhuochuang Information, the harvesting progress in North China and Northeast China, the main producing areas, has slowed down, the new season corn has not yet been concentrated, and the surplus of aged grain is not much
.
In the case of the tight overall supply pattern of the corn market, some grain holders are reluctant to sell at a high price, thereby supporting the current corn market price
.
The corn market is on the strong side
The corn market trend is strong In Yuan Shuai's view, China's corn consumption is mainly used as feed, and the use of corn feed consumption accounts for about 60%
of the total consumption.
"Analysis" shows that with the improvement of pig breeding profits, feed demand has rebounded, corn feed consumption has increased steadily, and industrial consumption has remained stable
.
In fact, since mid-September, with the launch of spring corn with obvious cost-performance advantages in some parts of North China, and the high price of stale grain in Northeast China, feed enterprises' enthusiasm for purchasing stale grain has declined, and the intention to replenish warehouses has gradually shifted from stale grain to new grain
.
So can downstream demand continue to support stronger corn prices?
It is understood that the current feed production as a whole is still recovering, corn consumption of pork and poultry feed, production continues to rise significantly compared with the previous month, but there is still a gap compared with the previous year's output, "according to the law of the pig cycle, whenever the market pork price rises, the market price of corn often shows a downward trend
.
" In terms of comprehensive current factors, in the next stage, the domestic pork price in the fourth quarter may still fluctuate, accompanied by ups and downs, but there is no possibility of large fluctuations, so the impact on the price of corn will not fluctuate greatly
.
Yuan Shuai said
.
For the future corn price trend, Hong Tao believes that the current price of corn in the national reserve has risen, the price of high-quality fresh corn is better, and the market price of new corn grain will be basically stable
.
Yuan Shuai said that at present, domestic corn prices are in a relatively optimistic situation, with a large number of new corn continuous listing, domestic corn prices will face a certain correction
.
At the same time, he highlighted the increase in the cost of corn production in
our country this year.
"This year, there has been a large-scale drought in the southern part of China, and the northeast region has been affected by waterlogging, and the phenomenon of corn lodging is serious, in addition, this year's price has risen, the cost of planting land has increased, especially the increase
in fertilizer prices in the early stage.
" Therefore, in Yuan Shuai's view, under the combined influence of factors such as rising costs, changes in supply and demand, and market inflation counterforces, even if corn prices pull back, it is expected that the strength of the decline will not be very large
.
