The outbreak of foot and mouth disease threatens the benefit of vaccine enterprises in animal husbandry chain

Introduction: on the afternoon of the 27th, the Information Office of the State Council officially announced the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease in Shandong, Jiangsu, Xinjiang, Beijing and Hebei It is understood that in the first ten days of April, two dairy farms in Daiyue district, Tai'an City, Shandong Province and Huishan District, Wuxi City, Jiangsu Province successively suffered from type I foot-and-mouth disease in Asia; since the first ten days of May, foot-and-mouth disease has also been found in hebukesaer County, Xinjiang, Yanqing County, Beijing city and Sanhe City, Hebei Province Industry insiders believe that the current epidemic is still in its infancy, with little specific impact However, if the epidemic spreads further and large-scale outbreak occurs, it will have a negative impact on animal husbandry, meat products, dairy products, feed processing industry and grain planting industry At the same time, the performance of FMD vaccine enterprises is expected to improve On the impact of the epidemic on animal husbandry, meat processing and dairy products, Qu Yongxiang, an analyst at Guotai Junan, judged that if there is a large-scale foot-and-mouth disease of cattle that is difficult to control in the short term, it will have a huge negative impact on the cattle industry, and both beef cattle and cows will be hit It is worth mentioning that the demand for pork and mutton as substitutes will increase significantly, which will stimulate the breeding of pigs and sheep and make up for the loss caused by the contraction of cattle industry to a certain extent Some insiders said that there is uncertainty about the substitution of pigs and sheep for cattle because FMD may infect pigs and sheep In this way, the affected areas may also be expanded to pig breeding, Shuanghui development of pork processing industry, Shunxin agriculture and xinwufeng; grassland development of sheep and poultry breeding and processing industry, St River, Tongwei shares and good managers of fishery and aquatic feed industry, etc At present, the listed companies in the veterinary vaccine industry mainly include Zhongmu group, Jinyu group, etc Fucheng Wufeng and Sanyuan share said that at present, Fucheng Wufeng has become the focus of attention -- the main business of beef cattle breeding, slaughtering, processing, the main production and marketing places are Hebei, Beijing and other places, the above two factors just put the company into the focus of the epidemic "The company has been banned from selling cattle, beef and other products for two weeks," Song Baoxian, Secretary of Fucheng Wufeng, confessed to our reporter: "in the two weeks prior to the announcement of the epidemic on the 27th, the relevant health inspection departments had carried out laboratory tests, blood sampling and other diagnostic procedures for the company's cattle, and the market sales situation in Hebei and Beijing were indeed affected, but the loss did not It's as serious as the market thinks After confirmed by the health and epidemic prevention department, the cattle have been vaccinated Now, the company's products have returned to normal sales " In addition to beef cattle, the impact of foot-and-mouth disease on dairy cows is also of concern Will dairy companies also be affected by the epidemic? "At present, the company is not affected by the epidemic, and its production and marketing are normal," Li Ning, Secretary of Sanyuan Co., Ltd., told reporters She further stressed that the company has a complete industrial chain of milk processing and its own breeding center, which is in good health and epidemic prevention The center is located in the urban area of Beijing, not within the epidemic area of Yanqing County, Beijing According to Zhu Weihua, an analyst at China Merchants Securities, a large-scale dairy enterprise can produce at least 200-300 tons of milk per day, while the 200 cows killed in the epidemic area can only produce 3-5 tons of milk per day, so it will not pose a threat to the local milk source On Friday, in response to the recent market rumors that "the spread of avian influenza and foot-and-mouth disease has seriously affected the company's normal production and operation activities", feed star new hope has issued a Clarification Announcement, saying that the company's production and operation activities are normal, and its subordinate feed enterprises are not affected by avian flu and foot-and-mouth disease For the upstream feed industry, soybean, corn and other agricultural products, the epidemic situation of threatened vaccine enterprises in the industrial chain also has a significant impact Qu Yongxiang, an analyst at Guotai Junan, believes that the demand for cattle feed has certain seasonality, so the occurrence of FMD alone has relatively limited negative impact on feed production enterprises However, if FMD also occurs in cattle, pigs, sheep, especially pigs, it will have a huge impact on feed processing industry Moreover, the impact of foot-and-mouth disease on feed processing industry will further affect the upstream prices of soybean, corn and other agricultural products, which will be bad for the relevant agricultural planting enterprises, but will be conducive to reducing the costs of the relevant agricultural product processing enterprises However, "the performance of vaccine enterprises will benefit in the context of the outbreak," Zhu Weihua said Among the three production bases of special vaccines for cattle, sheep and pigs designated by the Ministry of agriculture, Lanzhou bio pharmaceutical plant of China animal husbandry Co., Ltd and Inner Mongolia bio pharmaceutical plant of Jinyu group occupy the main market share In 2004, China animal husbandry Co., Ltd accounted for 55% of the FMD vaccine market in China, while Jinyu group accounted for 35% However, according to the investigation of insiders in the industry, after contacting Zhongmu and Jinyu by telephone, they have all known about the epidemic situation and have not yet received the notice of vaccine production and scheduling from relevant national departments If the epidemic is effectively controlled, the vaccine sales of the two enterprises will not be greatly improved in the short term Once the epidemic spreads, the demand for sub-1 vaccine will increase rapidly, which may bring order opportunities to the two enterprises.