The number of infected people in Shanghai is increasing by nearly 20,000. When will the turning point come?

Four days after the "big battle" of the epidemic in Shanghai, the city with a population of 25 million has not yet lifted the blockade, and a new round of nucleic acid testing is underway

The epidemic is still running at a high level.

Even though the data is already at a high level, yesterday's press conference on the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council revealed that the current Shanghai epidemic is "still in a state of development", "a lot of community transmission has occurred and spilled over to many provinces and cities, and the prevention and control situation is very severe.

Wuhan mode reappears: global static, all -out battles and the help of 38,000 medical staff

On March 28, Shanghai added 3,500 new cases of infection.

Two days later, the Shanghai Municipal Leading Cadre Conference made a request to adopt "global static management" and pressed the all-round pause button for this bustling and busy "magic capital"

On April 2, Sun Chunlan, member of the Political Bureau of the Central Committee of the Communist Party of China and Vice Premier of the State Council, emphasized when investigating the epidemic prevention and control work in Shanghai: "Go out to fight as hard as you can, use speed to control speed, and use the shortest time to curb the spread of the epidemic

Starting at 6:00 a.

According to media reports at the time, the goal of this "Shanghai Grand Battle" was to complete nucleic acid testing of 25 million people within 36 hours

In order to win this "big battle", it is imperative to mobilize the whole country to help Shanghai, and this can only be achieved in China with a national system

On April 3, thousands of medical staff from Wuhan, Tianjin, Nanchang and other places, carrying medical supplies, took 10 high-speed trains to Shanghai

In addition, it is reported that in addition to medical staff, Jiangsu and Zhejiang provinces around Shanghai will urgently provide a total of 60,000 isolation rooms for relevant isolation personnel during Shanghai's fight against the new crown epidemic

On April 4, Jiao Yahui, director of the National Health and Medical Commission's Medical Administration and Medical Administration Bureau, said in an interview with CCTV News that more than 38,000 medical personnel have been dispatched from 15 provinces across the country, and 2.

Among them, 9 provinces have sent more than 11,000 medical personnel to undertake the task of medical teams in Fangcang shelter hospitals; another 4 provinces have sent medical personnel for nucleic acid sampling, totaling more than 23,200 people

From January 24, 2020 to March 1, 2020, a total of 344 national medical teams were dispatched across the country to support Hubei, including 38,478 medical personnel in Wuhan

In Shanghai, this epidemic has almost replicated the anti-epidemic model of Wuhan that the whole country rushed to support two years ago in a certain sense

However, the main responsibilities of the two groups of medical workers who came to Wuhan and Shanghai to support them are different

According to the "People's Daily", more than 11,000 critical care medical staff across the country rushed to Hubei, nearly 10% of the total number of critical care professionals
.
Among them, among the medical staff supporting Wuhan, critical care medical professionals accounted for 1/3
.

In this Shanghai epidemic, the vast majority of infected people are asymptomatic infected people, and the makeshift hospitals that centrally isolate them may require more human support
.
Therefore, among the medical personnel who rushed to Shanghai this time, more than 11,000 medical personnel took on the task of the medical team of the Fangcang shelter hospital
.

On the evening of April 5, the construction of the square cabin hospital of the National Convention and Exhibition Center (Shanghai), known as the "Four Leaf Clover", is expected to provide more than 40,000 beds
.
According to 8:00 Jianwen, the large-scale makeshift hospitals that have been built and put into use in Shanghai include Shanghai New International Expo Center makeshift hospital (about 15,000 beds) and Shanghai Lingang makeshift hospital (about 13,600 beds).
)
.
In addition, Shanghai has also converted a number of sports venues or exhibition centers such as Minhang Gymnasium, Jiading Gymnasium, and World Expo Exhibition Center into makeshift hospitals and put them into use
.

According to the "Management Specifications for the Setup of Fangcang Cabin Hospitals", these Fangcang shelter hospitals mainly treat asymptomatic infected persons and mild cases of basic diseases and mental diseases without acute attacks and under the age of 60 who have the ability to take care of themselves
.

At present, the total number of beds in the Fangcang shelter hospitals in Shanghai is not clear, but according to the daily new number of infected people in Shanghai and the overall number so far, the shortage of Fangcang shelter hospitals is likely to be a high probability event
.

The lockdown in Wuhan lasted for a full 76 days, so with reference to the epidemic in Wuhan, a more important question is, how long will Shanghai be under global static management this time?

Shanghai can't and won't press the pause button for too long
.

In 2021, Shanghai's GDP will be 4.
32 trillion yuan, creating an average daily value of 12 billion yuan
.
Before Shanghai "drawn the river and sealed it", Wu Fan, a member of the expert group of the Shanghai Leading Group for Epidemic Prevention and Control and the Vice President of Shanghai Medical College of Fudan University, once made it clear that Shanghai is not only Shanghai for the people of Shanghai, but also carries the national economic and social development.
important functions, and even have an impact on the global economy
.

Why are cases still increasing? When did the inflection point occur?

The Armageddon has begun, but the epidemic is still spreading, and the number of people increasing day by day has not seen an inflection point
.

At the press conference of the Joint Prevention and Control Mechanism of the State Council on April 6, Lei Zhenglong, deputy director and first-level inspector of the CDC of the National Health and Medical Commission, said that the current epidemic in Shanghai is "still in a state of development" and "a lot has happened.
The community spread and spilled over to many provinces and cities, and the prevention and control situation is very serious
.
"

On April 4, the first day of Jin Rui's battle, Shanghai recorded more than 10,000 new additions in a single day, and the epidemic was running at a high level
.
Many communities in Shanghai have been closed since March 2, and it has been more than a month.
However, due to the continuous emergence of positive cases, residents have to accept "48+48", "7+7", and even after 14 14 years of isolation and containment with no future in sight
.

Many people wonder why the community has been closed, and new cases continue to emerge?

Jin Dongyan, a professor at the School of Medicine at the University of Hong Kong, believes that generally speaking, after a strong policy of closing the city is implemented, the effect can be seen within a few days, but the number in Shanghai has not been suppressed, which is confusing
.
However, there is currently limited information officially released, making it difficult to draw conclusions
.

He analyzed three possibilities to Badian Jianwen: First, there is a large stock of infected people, which are distributed in different regions and are discovered one after another; second, large-scale nucleic acid screening and clustered transmission caused by residents’ panic buying; third, When quarantined at home, one person infects a family
.

Virologist Chang Rongshan warned that the location and facilities of nucleic acid testing are likely to be the cause of the spread of the virus
.

Although folks suspect that takeaways and express delivery will carry and spread the virus, residents spontaneously promote "non-essential online shopping"
.
However, Chang Rongshan believes that compared with take-out and express delivery, the probability of human-to-human transmission will be higher because the places and facilities for nucleic acid testing are contaminated
.

At present, it seems that in the face of Omicron, which has a strong spread and asymptomatic infections accounted for nearly 99%, Shanghai has returned to China's most familiar epidemic prevention plan-nucleic acid testing, isolation and shelters
.
On April 4, Shanghai announced that it would conduct nucleic acid testing for all employees
.
On the 6th, the second round of nucleic acid detection and antigen detection in key areas was launched
.

After several investigations of the population of 25 million, can the inflection point of the epidemic come?

Experts have made different judgments
.

Zhao Dahai, a professor at the School of International and Public Affairs of Shanghai Jiao Tong University, told 8:00 Jianwen that with the completion of the second round of testing, the epidemic in Shanghai will usher in a turning point this weekend.
A considerable part of the area can resume normal operation
.

Chang Rongshan believes that the current single-day increase in Shanghai is far from reaching a high level, and the epidemic is still in a period of spread
.

Chang Rongshan explained that the epidemic of infectious diseases is generally divided into 5 stages, namely the introduction stage, the diffusion stage, the outbreak stage, the decline stage and the termination stage
.
The introduction period of the epidemic in Shanghai began in early March, and it continued for a month before reaching the peak of new additions in a single day, and the spread period dragged on for a long time
.

"Generally speaking, the number of infections will double in the early stage
.
The current number does not see a significant decline, and the upward trend is not rapid
.
"

He predicts that Shanghai will enter the outbreak period from April 10 to May 10
.
It is conservatively estimated that the Shanghai epidemic will not enter the decline period until late May
.

Jin Dongyan said that the inflection point was discovered after the fact.
Judging from the data released so far, it is difficult to judge the scale and direction, and it is difficult to predict the inflection point
.

It is not only Shanghai that enters Wuhan time

In this spring, it is not only Shanghai that enters Wuhan time
.
The unexpected outbreak of the epidemic in Shanghai has allowed the Chinese people to experience the super-powerful transmission of Omicron, and it has almost brought the anti-epidemic situation across the country into a state of more grass and trees
.

In the inland border areas, this kind of tension has long been a new normal under the severe epidemic situation in Omicron
.
According to Xinhua News Agency, after the first confirmed case appeared in early March, Wuchang City, Heilongjiang implemented a global closure and control of Lalin Town, and urban management, traffic, and public security officers conducted 24-hour social control patrols
.
The situation of the epidemic in Shanghai this time has effectively spread this tension to more regions, especially the economically developed Yangtze River Delta region
.

Beginning in early March, due to the impact of the epidemic in the urban area of ​​Langfang, Dachang and Xianghe, although there have been zero cases, were also required to "block and manage" for 17 days
.

Since a confirmed case was found on April 1, since April 2, many counties and districts under the jurisdiction of Baoding City, including Gaoyang County, have adopted global lockdown management and nucleic acid screening for all employees
.
And "during the closure and control management period, except for special personnel such as nucleic acid testing, epidemic prevention and supply protection, and emergency emergencies, all personnel remain at home and leave the community (village) to wait for the notification of nucleic acid testing
.
" Until April 7, the number of recent confirmed cases Only in Gaoyang County, which has zero and 5 rounds of nucleic acid all-yin, adjusted the regional seal control to regional control
.

On April 6, the third day after Shanghai's "Zhen Rui battle", Kunshan City issued its Circular No.
32 of 2022 on Epidemic Prevention and Control, announcing that "the city will remain relatively silent" for three consecutive days, and citizens need to comprehensively reduce the number of non-essential diseases.
Necessary activities, and participate in nucleic acid testing for three consecutive days
.
According to statistics, from March 10 to April 4, Kunshan, a new city whose permanent population has just exceeded 2 million, has detected 1 confirmed case and 77 asymptomatic infections
.

However, a problem left by the rapidly triggered and increasingly strict prevention and control policy is, when does the city need to enter a state of closure, and to what extent does the epidemic need and must trigger global static management? And what can its people use to predict whether they need to hoard supplies to face a lockdown?

In this vacuum period when no one can tell when the lockdown and control management will be triggered, the rumor of "to lock down the city, quickly stock up on vegetables" has also become the most widely circulated rumor
.
Just yesterday morning, a Nantong netizen left a message on Weibo: "It's seven o'clock, and the city is not locked down.
Those who grab high-priced dishes have become a big injustice.
.
.
" On that day, the cumulative number of new local diagnoses in Nantong was 0.
Added local asymptomatic to 13
.