The number of confirmed cases exceeds 1.06 million. Why does Hong Kong suspend national nucleic acid testing?

According to data released by the Centre for Health Protection of the Department of Health of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region Government, on March 21, there were 14,152 new confirmed cases in a single day in Hong Kong
.

Among them, 4,296 cases were confirmed by nucleic acid testing, and the remaining 9,856 were positive cases reported by rapid antigen test

So far, the cumulative number of confirmed cases in Hong Kong has increased to 1.
06 million
.

However, on March 19, a team from the Faculty of Medicine of the University of Hong Kong estimated that 3.
58 million people in Hong Kong had been infected with the new crown virus, nearly half of the population of Hong Kong
.

Jin Dongyan, a virologist at the University of Hong Kong, told the health community that the large-scale human infection, coupled with the fact that about 90% of the people have been vaccinated, has basically formed an "iron wall"
.

"In other words, the Hong Kong SAR is close to the herd immunity level,
" Jin Dongyan said
.

Under such circumstances, on the morning of March 21, the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong Special Administrative Region, Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor, said at a routine anti-epidemic press conference that the compulsory nucleic acid testing for the whole people would be suspended
.

It has been nearly two months since the fifth wave of the epidemic in Hong Kong broke out at the end of January
.

During this period, the voices calling for nationwide nucleic acid testing have not stopped

Jin Dongyan commented that suspending the nationwide nucleic acid testing is a key decision to stabilize and control the epidemic.

Chief Executive Carrie Lam is leading Hong Kong's anti-epidemic work in the right direction

In the anti-epidemic work in mainland China, the screening of infected people through nationwide nucleic acid testing is an effective means to quickly block the transmission channels of the epidemic and curb the spread of the epidemic
.

Why doesn't Hong Kong do national nucleic acid testing? Behind the decision to suspend mandatory nucleic acid testing for all people, where is the Hong Kong epidemic heading?

Analyzing the cost and benefit, the nucleic acid test for the whole population in Hong Kong is not cost-effective!

Analyzing the cost and benefit, the nucleic acid test for the whole population in Hong Kong is not cost-effective!

Jin Dongyan told the health community that the central government hopes that the Hong Kong SAR government will meet the requirements of stabilizing the epidemic through precise and scientific prevention and control.
" decision
.

He analyzed that many of the infected people in Hong Kong have already been infected, and most of the rest will not be infected
.

Even if they are infected, they are basically asymptomatic or mild because they have received two shots of the vaccine

"If the speed of nucleic acid testing cannot keep up with the speed of patients' self-healing, it will be of little significance after doing so
.

" He said, in addition, Hong Kong's current prevention and control goal is to reduce severe cases and deaths

Jin Dongyan introduced that since the large-scale outbreak of the epidemic, due to insufficient isolation facilities and insufficient medical resources in Hong Kong, the infected citizens have not received corresponding support
.

Hong Kong people rely on civic awareness, consciousness, and the level of civilization of the city to conduct self-isolation and treatment at home

The number of infected people in Hong Kong is now large, possibly far beyond the 1.
06 million announced
.

It has been difficult to find out all infected people through nucleic acid testing of all staff

Even if most of the infected people are identified, there is still a real problem: there are not so many isolation facilities
.

Moreover, if a larger number is announced, it may also trigger general anxiety among the public
.

He said that at present, what Hong Kong needs to do is to treat critically ill patients, provide necessary supplies to mildly ill patients in the community who are isolated at home, and give them psychological and spiritual support, so as to achieve the goal of stabilizing the epidemic.
, and let Hong Kong allocate a lot of manpower and material resources to conduct nucleic acid testing for all staff, it will be a waste of resources, and may even cause Hong Kong to be out of order
.

”

"The biggest lesson Hong Kong has learned is to vaccinate the elderly as soon as possible
.
" Jin Dongyan analyzed that compared with Singapore, the epidemic in Hong Kong was an accidental outbreak, and Singapore was artificially liberalized
.
However, due to the planned liberalization, the vaccination rate of the elderly in Singapore is 97%, and most of them have received three shots, at least two shots
.
Therefore, although the number of infected people in Singapore is similar to that of Hong Kong, the mortality rate is 1/5 of that of Hong Kong
.

Therefore, vaccination is the top priority of Hong Kong's epidemic prevention and control
.
He said that instead of using large-scale manpower and material resources to conduct nucleic acid testing for all employees and establish isolation facilities, it is better to concentrate more strength and resources to let everyone get vaccinated, especially the elderly
.

The opportunity for nucleic acid testing of all staff has long been missed

The opportunity for nucleic acid testing of all staff has long been missed

Why didn't Hong Kong conduct nucleic acid testing for all employees as soon as possible? It involves the timing of starting nucleic acid testing for all employees
.

According to previous reports in Hong Kong, positive cases have been detected in Hong Kong since mid-January, and this round of infection has more than one source of infection
.
Judging from the development of the epidemic, the number of confirmed cases in Hong Kong has risen sharply since February 4, and the upper limit of the number of confirmed cases in a single day has been continuously updated
.
On February 21, the number of newly confirmed cases in Hong Kong reached 7,533 in a single day
.

On February 22, Chief Executive Carrie Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor announced that all staff would be tested for nucleic acid
.
Jin Dongyan analyzed that at that time, Hong Kong had already experienced a large-scale epidemic, and it was impossible to clear it through the national nucleic acid test
.

According to the experience of mainland China, the timing of nucleic acid testing for all staff should be as early as possible, and it should be carried out as soon as the signs of the epidemic are found
.
"A few weeks after the outbreak of the epidemic, Hong Kong plans to conduct nationwide mandatory nucleic acid testing, and it is obviously too late
.
" Zhang Hongtao, a former associate professor at the University of Pennsylvania School of Medicine, also told the health community
.

Image source: Xiaomu Digital Station

In addition, Hong Kong has been unable to carry out nucleic acid testing for all employees, and there are also constraints such as manpower, material resources, venues, and community organization capabilities
.

In an interview with the media in late February, Li Dachuan, the leader of the testing and medical team of the special class supported by the central government for anti-epidemic work in Hong Kong, and the deputy director of the National Health and Health Commission's Medical Administration and Hospital Administration, proposed to start nucleic acid testing for all employees, in addition to preparing sufficient isolation.
In addition to point and treatment manpower, the requirements for organizational skills are also very high
.

The first condition is the participation of all staff, and the second is that the organization is effective
.

"Within the specified time, all personnel can collect nucleic acids, which is very demanding for organizations
.
" He said that there are some good practices and experiences in the mainland.
The entire city is managed in a grid, a grid There is a grid worker inside, find out how many people are in the grid, and then make preparations in advance, and arrange the appropriate sampling force according to how many people there are
.

The third condition is that those who test positive must be quarantined and controlled in a timely manner, so as to achieve the purpose of cutting off the transmission route
.

At the press conference on March 21, Carrie Lam said that in order to achieve the goal of being thorough, orderly and effective, the SAR government has continued to refine the testing plan over the past month, assessing the manpower, material resources and venues required for the work, as well as To formulate supporting measures to restrict the movement of people, if the nationwide forced inspection is to be carried out, the scale will be unprecedented in Hong Kong
.

According to reports, the evaluation results show that the total number of people tested is about 7.
2 million, and a total of 500 testing stations need to be set up to operate 14 hours a day.
If a 3-day testing cycle is used to conduct nucleic acid sampling for 2.
4 million people every day, it will take 80,000 A number of staff were involved, including testing station operators, samplers from the mainland, drivers who carried confirmed patients to community isolation facilities, and disciplined forces maintaining order
.

Carrie Lam also mentioned that mainland experts have admitted frankly after visiting Hong Kong that the community organization in Hong Kong is weak
.
She also said that there are many street management organizations in the mainland, which can completely "never miss a single household" in the nationwide testing, while Hong Kong's ability in this regard is weak
.
Even if there is a legal basis for compulsory national screening, it may be difficult to achieve the goal of national screening
.

Antigen testing has gained mass popularity in Hong Kong

Antigen testing has gained mass popularity in Hong Kong

In addition to the unsatisfactory conditions for nucleic acid testing of all employees, Hong Kong's anti-epidemic has a big difference from the mainland - it is more dependent on antigen testing
.

It is reported that under the attack of the fifth wave of the epidemic, the Hong Kong SAR government has previously purchased a large number of rapid antigen test kits for testing of different groups of people
.
The Centre for Health Protection of the Hong Kong Department of Health has also launched the "2019 Novel Coronavirus Rapid Antigen Test Positive Results Reporting System"
.
Citizens can test and report on their own
.
Antigen test results can be counted in the government's COVID-19 case tally
.

With the popularization of antigen detection reagents in late February, the number of newly diagnosed cases in Hong Kong in a single day has skyrocketed
.
On March 3, the number of new cases in Hong Kong exceeded 56,000 a day, setting a record for the highest number of new cases in a single day
.
Jin Dongyan introduced that this was not caused by the "surge" of patients, but was due to a change in the official statistical strategy: the company and the government only confirmed the nucleic acid positive twice, and it can be reported when the nucleic acid is positive once
.

According to official data released by Hong Kong, as of March 20, the cumulative number of positive cases in Hong Kong's fifth wave of the epidemic has exceeded 1 million, of which 679,452 have been tested by nucleic acid and 355,607 have been reported by antigen testing
.
Jin Dongyan said that antigen testing is the best supplement to nucleic acid testing, and it took a lot of time to find cases during the outbreak
.

In terms of risk assessment and shunting, high-risk, medium-risk, and low-risk patients are the evaluation criteria
.
High-risk patients (such as the elderly in serious condition, those with warning symptoms, etc.
) will be sent to the hospital for treatment; medium-risk patients (such as those with stable physical condition but no home isolation conditions) will be sent to community isolation points until they meet the discharge conditions Leave again; low-risk people (with mild symptoms and home isolation conditions) will be quarantined at home, and they can be released from isolation when their condition improves
.

In addition, in order to prevent false test results, positive declaration patients need to provide a photo of the rapid antigen test result and a photo of their ID card for records
.
Thereafter, the CHP will provide corresponding isolation and treatment measures for positive applicants, such as arranging medical assistance and admission to treatment or isolation facilities
.

Source: Wenhui.
com

Will Hong Kong passively "coexist with the virus"?

Will Hong Kong passively "coexist with the virus"?

"National antigen testing may not be necessary at present
.
" Jin Dongyan analyzed that because the scale of infection in Hong Kong is already too large, it is estimated that there are about 3 million people, and these people will not be infected again in the short term
.
Among the remaining people, most of them have been vaccinated to produce antibodies, or have been exposed to the virus, and their own antibodies have been stimulated.
"These people will be fine if they close their eyes
.
"

He said that even if these vaccinated people are infected, their disease course will be very short and their symptoms will be very mild.
"Even if there are sequelae, it will not be too serious, and it is not worth worrying too much
.
"

Jin Dongyan said frankly that the current situation of the epidemic in Hong Kong has made it difficult to stop the spread of the virus
.
We can only wait for the epidemic to develop to a certain extent and show a natural decline
.
There are still some who have not been vaccinated, or the protection is not enough after being vaccinated, and the virus will find them
.
When the virus completely finds the person it is looking for, it will stop running
.

"It's basically close to herd immunity,
" he said, but it's also better than doing some useless work
.

Fortunately, the daily number of newly infected people in Hong Kong is already on a downward trend
.

Jin Dongyan said that Hong Kong should now focus on helping critically ill patients and vaccinating the elderly
.
In addition, it should also be placed on the next opening plan and how to resume normal production and life
.

"Otherwise, the lives of some ordinary people will become a problem
.
"

References:

References:

1.
The Beijing News: "Why is it difficult to implement Hong Kong's suspension of compulsory nucleic acid testing for all people?"

1.
The Beijing News: "Why is it difficult to implement Hong Kong's suspension of compulsory nucleic acid testing for all people?"

2.
Southern Metropolis Daily: "Latest Announcement by Carrie Lam"

2.
Southern Metropolis Daily: "Latest Announcement by Carrie Lam"

3.
Phoenix TV: "Hong Kong newly diagnosed 8,674 cases, Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor's response to why not to test the whole people as soon as possible"

3.
Phoenix TV: "Hong Kong newly diagnosed 8,674 cases, Lam Cheng Yuet-ngor's response to why not to test the whole people as soon as possible"

4.
Jiemian News: "How did Hong Kong implement the new crown antigen test? 》

4.
Jiemian News: "How did Hong Kong implement the new crown antigen test? 》