The new trend and Enlightenment of oil market at present

Introduction: 1 In recent two years, the import of soybeans in China has shown a rapid growth trend Since 1999, the import volume exceeded 10 million tons for the first time, and reached a record 13.2 million tons in 2001 According to the data provided by the General Administration of customs, China imported 11.32 million tons of soybeans in 2002 It is expected that the import volume of soybeans in 2003 will probably increase to the highest level in history, which is more than 30% higher than the actual import volume in 2002 From January to February, China imported 2.7 million tons of soybeans According to the latest report, the import of soybeans to Hong Kong in March will reach 2 million tons, an increase of 200000 tons over the previous estimated 1.8 million tons In April, South American soybeans will enter the domestic market in large quantities At present, the total quantity of soybeans ordered by China from April to May is about 3.4 million tons, of which 1.4 million tons are soybeans shipped in April and 2 million tons are soybeans shipped in May It can be seen that there is a large amount of imported soybeans arriving in Hong Kong in April With the start-up of various oil plants, the domestic soybean oil production has increased sharply, and the market price is facing a decline The main reasons for the increase of imported soybeans are various: first, the domestic consumption is growing rapidly, and the supply gap is large; second, the domestic processing capacity is growing rapidly, and the processing demand is urgent; third, the international output is growing rapidly, and the price is falling sharply, which is superior to domestic soybeans in terms of oil content and price However, the domestic price response is often lagging behind, importers and producers can not grasp the market trend well, and there is a great blindness in import, which brings a huge impact on the domestic market, causing a great rise and fall in the domestic market, and has a lot of negative effects According to the report of national grain and oil information center, the yield of rapeseed in China will reach 12.4 million tons in 2003, 17.8% higher than 10.53 million tons in 2002 As the domestic rapeseed will be harvested and listed at the end of April and the beginning of May, it will directly threaten the domestic oil market In the near future, due to the bad weather, people's estimates of China's rapeseed production began to decline, and even thought that the total output of rapeseed would be less than 12 million tons, but more likely to be 11 million tons However, it is a fact that a large number of rapeseed has been listed in an all-round way, and the pressure of centralized listing is also expected to impact the domestic edible oil market T6e 3 The import of palm oil has the most direct and rapid impact on the domestic palm oil market since the first ten days of March, which has caught the market dealers by surprise However, the significant decline of the international palm oil market price has led to the decline of the domestic port price and the corresponding decline At present, China's oil quota has been issued The quota of palm oil is 2.6 million tons, which is a huge amount With the gradual warming of the weather, the pace of palm oil import is expected to accelerate In April, a large number of palm oil may be concentrated in Hong Kong, and the large amount of palm oil will enter the market, which will inevitably impact the domestic edible oil market and promote the overall decline of market price It has become a fact that the domestic oil price has been affected in the later period This is due to the short transportation route of palm oil, which can be completed as soon as 15 days from the contract to the arrival of the goods Therefore, the impact on China is the most direct and rapid In recent two years, the influence of palm oil has gradually penetrated into the mainland from the coast, and the influence area is still expanding T6e 4 Although the price of peanut oil raw materials has increased, it has little impact on the whole edible oil market In recent years, the supply of peanut market in all parts of the country is tight, At the same time, the price of peanut oil in Nanjing, Jinan, Xiamen and other parts of the market has reached the peak in recent years However, from the perspective of the current peanut oil market, the trend of price increase in peanut oil market has been eased, especially peanut oil is mainly consumed in the main peanut producing areas, so the trend of peanut oil price is right The whole edible oil market has little impact T6e 5 Significant changes in the domestic market structure t6e 1 Obvious squeezing advantages in Guangdong As Guangdong is the main consumption area of soybean meal, the price is higher than Shandong, Dalian and other regions Under the condition of the same price of imported raw materials, Guangdong has obvious advantages of crushing compared with other regions With the continuous establishment of new local factories, the crushing capacity will be further expanded, and the southward decline of soybean meal in Shandong and Dalian will become a history T6e 2, Shandong, Dalian area processing plants are too intensive, processing capacity is serious surplus, and brought a series of problems, such as to ensure the start of construction, blindly excessive import of soybeans T6e 6 The domestic market is gradually mature Since last year, one of the most significant characteristics of the changes in the domestic oil market is that the range of price fluctuation has been reduced, the frequency of shocks has been accelerated, and each wave of fluctuation has a short stay time, and the opportunity is fleeting This is because in the case of a large number of imported oil and grease, the total supply and demand is generally balanced, and the price area is stable, but at different times, a certain variety can Can supply and demand imbalance, or affected by some policies or news, the price will change accordingly At the same time, people's management concept has changed, and their response to the market is more sensitive and mature For oil companies, opportunities have increased, but the difficulty of seizing them has increased, which requires us to accurately analyze the market, improve the operation speed, and never be greedy for profits Especially in the second quarter, when the trend of the domestic edible oil market is not good, we should grasp the market rules according to the situation and grasp the business opportunities in the future changing market t6e
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