The new tea market has a new look

Reporter Wang Xiaoxuan

At present, the main consumer groups of new tea brands in the market are still mainly young consumers, but the target customer groups of each brand have a high degree of overlap, and the market competition is fierce
.
Recently, the China Chain Store and Franchise Association released the "2022 New Tea Beverage Research Report" (hereinafter referred to as the "Report"), which analyzed and predicted
the common problems that are difficult to solve in the new tea beverage industry, how each enterprise responds, the next development focus and how to expand the customer group.

CAGR of over 20%

The market is constantly expanding

According to the report, the scale of new tea drinks is expected to reach 104 billion yuan
in 2022.
The scale of China's new tea beverage market has increased from 42.
2 billion yuan in 2017 to 100.
3 billion yuan in 2021, with a compound annual growth rate of more than 20%.

After the outbreak of the new crown pneumonia epidemic in 2020, the new tea beverage market as a whole has a relatively obvious growth; In 2021, it will steadily step on the scale of 100 billion yuan, and the market size will reach 104 billion yuan in 2022, which is basically the same
as in 2021.
With the adjustment of China's epidemic prevention and control policies, it is expected that after the second quarter of 2023, the enthusiasm of mass consumption is expected to be ignited, and the market size of new tea drinks is expected to recover to 145 billion yuan, recovering a three-year compound growth rate of nearly 20%.

In this Report, the new tea drink refers to the collective name of beverage shops that use tea, fruit, milk, etc.
as the main raw materials, and do not include franchised coffee shops, ice cream shops, yogurt houses, etc
.
According to incomplete statistics, the total number of new tea stores in operation at the end of 2022 was about 486,000, an increase of more than 28% from 378,000 at the end of 2020; Compared with 65.
5% in 2020, the proportion has decreased
.
From the perspective of the proportion of stores, the new tea drink in 2022 is still a sub-category with the largest number of stores in China's ready-made drinks, and its number of stores accounts for 61.
9%
of all kinds of ready-made beverage stores.
According to data from Qichcha, from 2020 to 2022, the total number of newly registered enterprises in the catering industry will reach the order of nearly 10 million, which is about equal to the total number
of restaurants in the business.
This also means that the catering industry is still attractive to entrepreneurs, and the industry competition may be more fierce
in the future.

The "Report" shows that the chain rate of new tea drinks can reach 55.
2%
in 2022.
Meituan data shows that the chain rate of the catering industry will increase from 15% to 20.
7% from 2020 to 2022
.
During the same period, the linkage rate of new tea drinks increased from 41.
2% to 55.
2%.

In the sampling survey of core business districts in many cities, the chain rate of new tea drinks exceeded 80%.

No tea drink, no chain
.
New tea drinks have certain characteristics of the retail industry, high degree of standardization, low threshold for opening stores, low cost of expanding stores, and can be quickly copied
.
In this highly competitive market environment, the concept of "slowly raising stores and raising brands" in the traditional catering industry basically does not exist, and newly opened tea shops can be quickly verified by the market, and if the business is good, it will quickly start to expand the second store and three stores; The business is not good, it is difficult to "raise well", and it needs to be quickly iterated or closed for adjustment
.

In 2022, the proportion of online orders for new tea drinks increased
sharply.
The proportion of online orders refers to the proportion of the number of orders paid by consumers online through WeChat mini programs, takeaway platforms, etc
.
, relative to the overall number of sales orders.
In 2022, affected by policies such as "prohibition of dine-in, take-out can be opened" and "QR code scanning when you arrive at the store", the proportion of online orders of many enterprises has increased
sharply.
Young consumers who have developed online social and online consumption habits have become the norm to place orders at any time through mobile apps, while WeChat mini programs, Meituan, Ele.
me, Douyin and other apps are the main channels
for placing orders.
Some sample companies said that more than 80% of all orders in 2022 came from mini programs and takeaway platforms
.

In 2022, the new tea beverage market is in the first half of the mature period
.
New tea drinks are the product of consumption upgrades, often referred to as the consumption upgrades
of "pre-packaged milk tea".
If analyzed from the composition of the ingredients of the new tea drink, the new tea drink is a "24-in-1" multi-functional leisure drink
.
A new cup of tea can be customized to feel the "similar experience" of multiple categories of snack foods from many aspects such as flavor, temperature, and taste, such as fresh milk, dairy drinks, brewed tea, tea bags, jelly cups, inhaled jelly, bottled tea, nuts, shakes, fruits, canned fruits, jams, purées, ice cream, tea, fruit candies, milk candies, etc
.

After more than 30 years of development, the new tea beverage market has roughly experienced three stages
of development.
At different stages of development, there are significant changes
from products to consumption scenarios.
Although this change is not final, it can reflect the maturity of
the new tea market.
From the perspective of convenience, the new tea beverage market has developed very mature
in some regions.

Development has challenges and opportunities

Full recovery is expected in the second quarter of 2023

The competition in the stock market is becoming more and more intense, and under the dual superposition of full competition and the epidemic, the increment of the entire new tea beverage market has temporarily disappeared
.
Although it is uncertain whether this incremental disappearance will be in the medium to long term or in the short term, several significant manifestations of the new tea beverage market in 2022 can be seen:

Continuous innovation is the norm, not a core competitiveness
.
New tea is the norm
.
According to Kamen's "2022 China Beverage Industry Product Report", 20 new tea brands launched 575 new products in 2020 and 930 new products in 2021, an increase of 61.
7%
over the same period last year.

In the first three quarters of 2022, the 50 brands monitored launched more than 1,677 new products, with an average of 11 new products
per brand per quarter.
The original intention of the new is to let consumers have a new experience, but the current shelf life of new tea is half a month
.
After a new product is launched, in about half a month, each brand can complete the launch of similar products one after another
.
From flavor characteristics to the selection of ingredients to production, if you look at the larger classification, the absolute "moat" of new tea drinks in the product is almost non-existent
.
In a fully competitive environment, the product is no longer the secret
of new tea drinks.
The sustainable development of an enterprise that manages thousands of stores should not only focus on products, but also be based on management, brand building, enterprise insight and food engineering research and development capabilities
.
In 2022, a number of first-line tea brands have independently created coffee product line brands, which is also a significant feature
of the market changes in the new tea beverage market in 2022.

The analysis of the "Report" believes that 2022 is difficult for many enterprises, and the first problem they face is survival, and new tea drinks are no exception
.
How long can a business survive without revenue? How long will the temporary closure last? If it is all released, will the cash flow be able to flow? The rent is still being paid, do you want to close the shop directly? What are the arrangements for employees after closing? Whether employees are laid off or not, or is it better to take the opportunity to optimize? If you don't open dine-in, only open takeaway, how to layout which stores are open? In addition, there are many problems
such as team morale damage and lower profit expectations.

Food safety risks that cannot be completely eliminated The catering industry is a labor-intensive industry, although the standardization and digital intelligence of new tea drinks in recent years will be higher than that of the catering industry, there are still a large number of employees operating in the processing, production and sales links, and potential food safety problems can only be reduced through various management means and cannot be completely eliminated
.

There is a lot of news about the head brand, and the "hot search physique" is significant Through the analysis of public opinion, it can be seen that all parties in the society pay high attention to the head brand of new tea drinks, and news reports can often rush to the hot search list
.
It is more common for the hot sales of single products to cause heated discussions, and there is a lot of negative news
.

Explore and grow in continuous trial and error As a non-rigid attribute product, although the new tea drink represents the individual consumption needs of a new generation of young consumer groups to a certain extent, it is still a small category, which has not yet attracted the attention of tea culture research experts, agriculture-related experts, nutrition and health experts, and basically belongs to the state of industry enterprises groping forward at the business level and growing in trial and error
.

High sugar and vegetable fat powder are the two most common misconceptions about new tea drinks The report said that in the survey, many consumers were found to have misunderstandings about new tea drinks, and the most representative misunderstanding was to equate new tea drinks with synonyms
for "high sugar" and "vegetable fat powder".
This may be the key to determining how high the
ceiling of a new tea drink is.

Misconception about "tea is high in sugar" In fact, sweetness is a sensory judgment of people's sense of taste, and drinks made in freshly made beverage stores taste sweeter
.
When comparing your own DIY drinks, you can't drink the sweet feeling
with a lot of sugar.
This is because the type of sugar varies depending on the rate at which sweetness is released in the mouth, which affects people's perception
of sweetness.
The most commonly used syrup in beverage stores, which is made of fructose and sucrose, can quickly perceive a full, full sweetness, that is, feel particularly sweet
.
Compared with preserves and individual bottled drinks, new tea drinks can only be regarded as "medium sugar"
.

The misconception that "there is a lot of vegetable fat powder in tea drinks, and vegetable fat powder is carcinogenic" The survey found that some consumers directly equate new tea drinks with vegetable fat powder, trans fatty acids, and carcinogens, which is also one of
the key reasons for boycotting new tea drinks.

The analysis of the "Report" believes that 2023 is expected to usher in a new tea market
.
In December 2022, the "Notice on Further Optimizing the Implementation of the Prevention and Control Measures for the New Coronary Pneumonia Epidemic" of the joint prevention and control mechanism of the State Council, known as the "New Ten Articles", was released, and the epidemic prevention and control work entered a new stage
.
At this point, industry insiders said that the performance of the new tea drink short-term market can make a relatively clear prediction: it is expected that in the first quarter of 2023, especially after the Spring Festival, with the in-depth implementation of epidemic prevention and control work in various places, the new tea drink market will gradually enter a stable operation state
.
The entire new tea beverage market is expected to fully recover in the second quarter of 2023, and is expected to usher in a "celebratory" sales market, with overall performance improving and franchise business expected to fully recover
.
Finally, the year-on-year increase in full-year results will be achieved in 2023
.

In the future, new tea drinks have challenges and opportunities
.
Industry insiders said that there are nearly 800 million people in China who have not drunk new tea, which has huge development potential, and the industry will continue to move forward on the road to meet consumer needs
.
The development of new tea drinks, that is, tea drinks 3.
0, is still based on the model of "brand + explosive products" to meet consumer needs
through rapid iteration.
The focus of explicit iteration is on products, with head brands leading R&D and innovation, followed by other brands; The hidden iteration is in the brand power, in letting consumers know the brand, and it is also the core competitiveness
of the new tea drink that can resonate with young consumers.

In addition, many brands are also exploring and expanding consumer groups by creating products in different scenarios, and there are unlimited possibilities in product innovation, with the growth of various consumer needs, there are still many innovative opportunities and iterative directions
for new tea drinks.
At the same time, the brand needs more content to escort, explore more consumption scenarios and consumer groups, through modern design and digital management, create a third space based on tea culture with higher ping efficiency, and will also try a series of products
suitable for different leisure scenes such as camping, cycling, fishing and so on in the future.

China Food News(2023.
01.
09.
07)

(Responsible editor: Luo Chen)