The NDRC is out again! Well-known analysts say: has been reversed!

In order to ensure the supply and price stability of the pork market during the Mid-Autumn Festival, National Day and other festivals, in September, the state and all localities simultaneously launched the government pork reserve release work, and this week will complete the fourth batch of central pork reserve release
this year.
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At the opening of the market this morning, the price of hog futures rose after opening low, and the Tongdaxin pork index rose
slightly.
In terms of specific individual stocks, Dabei Agriculture, Aonong Biological, and Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry rose
slightly.
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From the perspective of the sector index, since August 29, the main contract of hog futures 2301 has been in a downward channel, and the latest week has fallen
sharply.
During the same period, the Tongdaxin Pork Stock Index (880936) also fell all the way, falling by 16.
8%, and accelerated its decline
after September 5, when the central pork reserve was about to be launched.
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According to the monitoring of the National Development and Reform Commission, in the week of September 19-23, the weekly average retail price of lean meat in 36 large and medium-sized cities increased by 30% compared with the same period last year, entering the secondary warning range
of excessive rise determined by the "Improving the Government Pork Reserve Adjustment Mechanism to Do a Good Job Plan for Ensuring Supply and Stabilizing Prices in the Pork Market".
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According to the provisions of the plan, the state will release the fourth batch of central pork reserves this year, and guide all localities to jointly release local government pork reserves
.
Previously, the National Development and Reform Commission has completed three batches of central pork reserves on September 8, September 18 and September 23
.
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The National Development and Reform Commission stressed that at present, the domestic pig production capacity is generally reasonable and abundant, the stock of fertile sows, newborn piglets and fattening pigs is on the rise, and the price of pigs is at a historically high level, and does not have the basis for
sustained and substantial rise.
In the next step, the National Development and Reform Commission will also work with relevant departments to continue to release central pork reserves in combination with the market situation, and further increase the intensity of investment if necessary to promote the smooth operation
of the pig market.
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The agricultural research team of Tianfeng Securities believes in its report released on September 25 that although the current expectations are pessimistic, this cannot change the logic
of the layout of the pig boom cycle.
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On the one hand, with the national cool weather superimposed on the fourth quarter of the peak consumption season approaching, the industry pressure fence and the enthusiasm for secondary fattening reappeared, the average weight of the industry's pigs out of the column continued to rise, and the secondary fattening will lead to the backward movement of some pork supply, further strengthening the industry's expectations
for the increase in pork supply in the fourth quarter.
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On the other hand, the recent official regulation of pig prices intentions are obvious, in the fourth quarter supply increase expectations superimposed policy to vigorously regulate pig prices, the market for the future market pig prices easy to fall and difficult to rise pessimistic expectations spread, in the spot has hit a new high in the year, futures, spot showed a sharp divergence trend, pig main contract LH2301 contract last week fell sharply
.
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In Wu Li's view, the pig cycle has reversed and is still in the early stage of
the upward cycle.
With the marginalization of the amount of breeding last year, the supply pressure of live pigs is expected to improve month by month in the next period of time, and the demand is seasonally improved
with factors such as cooler weather and more holidays.
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In the case of weak supply and strong demand, the pig price center or will be able to continue to rise, the current pig price more than expected to rise, pig enterprises are profitable and valuation space open
.
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Wu Li believes that in the medium and long term, the current production capacity growth rate is limited, corresponding to next year's pig price or sustained high, the pig plate configuration value is prominent! jG9 China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

Corresponding to the estimated amount of columns in 2023, from the data as of September 25, the current average market value of listed companies, of which Makihara shares are 4500-5000 yuan / head; Superstar Agriculture and Animal Husbandry, Wen's shares 2500-3000 / head; Aonong Biological, New Wufeng, Dabeinong 2000-2500 yuan / head; New Hope, Tang Ren Shen, Tianbang Food, Jin Xinnong 1500-2000 yuan / head; Tiankang Bio and Zhengbang Technology are less than 1500 yuan / head, and the average market value of multiple shares still has significant room for growth; From a price-to-book ratio perspective, most companies are also in the historical bottom range
.
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Chen Jia, chief analyst of agriculture at Changjiang Securities, believes that the core variable affecting the trend of pig cycle prosperity lies in sow production capacity, the most real indicator of monitoring sow capacity changes lies in sow prices, the current sow price reaction capacity or still at the bottom, the industry boom trend has not changed
.
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In Chen Jia's view, the core of the trend affecting the pig cycle boom lies in the industry production capacity, and the sow price that can most truly reflect the recovery of the industry's production capacity is still lying at the bottom
.
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Historically, cyclical trends have been accompanied by sow prices sowing prices
.
In the 2015-2016 pig price upward cycle, the price of binary sows increased by 56%.

In the 2019-2020 cycle, the price increase of binary sows is 222%.

In this round of cycle, in the context of the pig price increase has exceeded 100%, the sow price has risen by only 9% since March, and it is still in the recent correction, reflecting the low
enthusiasm of the industry to make up the column.
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According to the industry-level exchanges, the enthusiasm of sow to supplement the fence is not high and related to three elements: jG9 China Feed Industry Information Network - based on feed, serving animal husbandry

(1) In the past two years, the annual volatility of pig prices has exceeded 100% for two consecutive years in history, and with the questioning of data distortion of the Ministry of Agriculture, the difficulty of predictability of pig prices in the medium term has increased significantly; jG9 China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

(2) The state has always emphasized that the rise in pig prices is not sustainable, and to a certain extent, it will affect the industrial supplement; jG9 China Feed Industry Information Network - Based on feed, serving animal husbandry

(3) The real recovery of the cash flow of the aquaculture industry needs to be done after four quarters
.
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Chen Jia believes that the secondary fattening of the industry in the 4th quarter is the norm, and due to the production cycle (generally delayed by 2-3 months), it will only affect the short-term price rhythm, historically, the secondary fattening does not affect
the general trend of the pig cycle.
And since the end of the year is usually the peak consumption season, the actual impact on pig prices is expected to be relatively limited
.
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Chen Jia pointed out that most of the adjusted pork company valuations are at the bottom level
.
The average market value of the leading enterprise Makihara shares is only 5118 yuan, which is close to the bottom in August last year and is located at the historical quantile of 25%.

With the third quarter entering the performance release period, the relative advantages of aquaculture stocks are obvious
.
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