The national policy of restricting soybean oil has little effect on soybean oil import

Introduction: Gil recently, nine ministries and commissions including the State Planning Commission issued the notice on the implementation of measures to further support the development of China's soybean industry, aiming to support soybean import, encourage soybean meal export and effectively control soybean oil import At the same time, the new policy formulated corresponding measures for the sharp increase of soybean oil import last year This will undoubtedly have a certain impact on China's soybean oil import, but our analysis shows that its impact will not be too great Gil's new policy clearly states that soybean oil produced by imported soybeans can be regarded as quota import (i.e offset the quota), but its corresponding soybean meal quantity must be exported The soybean oil used by the oil processing plant or purchased by the manufacturer holding the soybean oil import quota is equivalent to the imported soybean oil This will have a direct impact on China's soybean oil import in the future, so it has an objective effect of inhibiting soybean oil import It is expected that this year's soybean oil import will be less than last year's 870000 tons However, in the long run, the cost price of imported soybean oil is lower than that of domestic soybean oil, and the cost of imported soybean oil includes 9% tariff and 13% value-added tax, while the cost of domestic soybean oil only includes 13% value-added tax, and some regions do not even include value-added tax in the cost of soybean oil Therefore, under the condition that a large number of domestic soybean oil import quotas are provided, the import demand of soybean oil will still be strong in the future Taking South American crude soybean oil as an example in May this year, although its current CNF quotation has been raised to 530 US dollars / ton, the import cost within the quota is 5500 yuan / ton, which is also significantly lower than the national average price of 5850 yuan / ton of secondary soybean oil At present, the cost price of imported refined soybean oil is only 5800 yuan / ton Gil therefore said that the impact of the new policy will not be great As long as the price of soybean oil is low, China will still import it This also proves why China recently imported a large amount of soybean oil from the United States and South America According to the latest statistics of the General Administration of customs, China imported 98900 tons of crude soybean oil in January, an increase of 1692.4% year on year In addition, up to now, China is expected to have ordered 600000 tons of imported crude soybean oil delivered from January to July this year Gil in short, we believe that the new policy will further promote and develop China's soybean industry, help protect the whole domestic crushing industry, to some extent, curb the impact of low-cost imported soybean oil on the domestic market, so as to stabilize the domestic soybean oil price Its purpose is to attract domestic manufacturers to use import quota to purchase domestic soybean oil with imported soybean as raw material If a considerable amount of soybean oil import quota can be used to purchase domestic soybean oil in the future, it will objectively reduce the direct import of soybean oil Therefore, the policy intention is not to affect the purchase of imported soybean oil by adjusting the price comparison between domestic and imported soybean oil GiL