The national development and Reform Commission believes that the current grain price is still under control

Introduction: since last year, with the sustained and rapid growth of the national economy, China's price trend has rebounded in an all-round way, especially after the impact of the SARS epidemic on economic development subsided in the second half of the year, the overall price level has shown a rapid upward trend Based on a comprehensive analysis of the current price situation, the national development and Reform Commission believes that although the overall price level has increased significantly, it has obvious structural characteristics, the overall price level is basically stable, and serious inflation has not yet been formed According to the notice of the national development and reform system policy research working conference, in the first eight months of last year, China's total consumer price level continued to increase slightly, and since September, the rate of increase has accelerated Since this year, market prices have continued to rise In April, the total level of consumer prices rose 3% year on year, and the total level of retail prices rose 1.7% year on year According to the analysis of the national development and Reform Commission, the current rise in the general price level has obvious structural characteristics, and serious inflation has not yet been formed The reasons are as follows: from the perspective of the price trend in the international market, global inflation has not yet been formed Since the end of 1990s, the global economy has been depressed for several years, and the trend of deflation has intensified Since 2002, the global price level of non energy commodities has shown a moderate upward trend In the first quarter of this year, it rose to 106.1, but it is still at a historical low price In terms of the price of means of production, the market situation of oversupply of manufactured goods restricts the transmission of the price of means of production to the final consumer goods At present, the price increase in China has the characteristics that the price increase of upstream products is much higher than that of downstream products The specific performance is that the price increase of primary and intermediate products is higher than that of final products, the price increase of purchase price is higher than that of ex factory price, and the price increase of means of production is higher than that of means of consumption Whether inflation can be formed depends on whether the high growth of the price of means of production can be transmitted to the price of consumer crystal Historical data shows that the price of investment goods changes about one year ahead of the price of consumer goods, and the continuous rise of the price of investment goods will generally reflect the final consumer price If constrained by the final consumer demand, a considerable part of the price rise of primary and intermediate products is difficult to transmit to the final products, and only squeeze the profits of the final products At present, many products in our country are in the situation of oversupply According to the latest survey of the Ministry of Commerce, in the first half of this year, of the 600 major commodities, 138 were basically balanced in supply and demand, accounting for 23% of the total number of commodities in line; 462 were oversupplied, accounting for 7796 of the total number of commodities in line, and there were no commodities in short supply This pattern affects the transmission and diffusion of the price rise of means of production to the downstream products, thus inhibiting the overall price rise of the final products From the perspective of grain price, it is still in a controllable state: first of all, grain is a special commodity, and its demand elasticity is very small, which determines that the total demand for grain is basically stable The reason for the increase of grain price is different from that of means of production, which is mainly caused by the decrease of grain supply Grain demand is not sensitive to price, but supply is sensitive to price, which determines the limited increase of grain price With the increase of food prices, the global food supply will increase, which will also play a role in curbing the momentum of domestic food prices At present, China's grain reserves are still relatively sufficient If grain prices rise too much, the state can use grain reserves to stabilize grain prices Secondly, most of our population is in the countryside A large part of the grain consumption of rural residents is self-contained grain, and the impact of rising grain prices is limited Third, since the reform and opening up, the Engel coefficient of Chinese households has been decreasing In 2002, the Engel coefficient of urban households was 37.7%, and that of rural households was 46.2% In China, the proportion of urban and rural residents' spending on food consumption has basically decreased by more than 1% every year At present, in the consumer price index, food prices account for about 30%, and the impact of food on the overall price level is decreasing According to the national development and Reform Commission, the price rise since last year is the result of the comprehensive effect of various factors, the reflection of China's economy entering a new round of growth cycle and the nature of recovery Since the Asian financial crisis, both the price of means of production and the price of means of living have experienced continuous decline for several years In 2002, compared with 1997, the total price level of means of production and retail price of goods in China decreased by 10% and 8.9% respectively, among which the price of grain and household appliances decreased by 18.4% and 26.9% respectively At the same time, the current prices are not rising in an all-round way, mainly because the prices of means of production and grain are rising more, the prices of general consumer goods are still in a low state, and the price rise has obvious structural characteristics