The momentum of domestic cottonseed price rising is obviously insufficient

Introduction: Recently, the market purchase price of the main producing areas of cottonseed in China has increased slightly As of April 4, the factory price of cottonseed in the northwest of Shandong Province has risen to 0.67-0.69 yuan / jin (moisture content is less than 12%, crude seed oil content is 15-16%), and the factory price of cottonseed in the south central of Hebei Province has also risen to 0.67-0.68 yuan / Jin, or 0.02-0.03 yuan / Jin It is understood that the main reason for the increase of cottonseed market is that the purchase of cottonseed in the cotton production area is close to the end, the supply of cottonseed is decreasing day by day, and most oil plants have the desire to purchase a batch of cottonseed in the last rush, which directly promotes the stable and rising market of cottonseed purchase price However, the author thinks that the driving force for the price of cottonseed to continue to rise in the future is obviously insufficient We should pay attention to the high risk The analysis factors are as follows: first, the oil factory is in a difficult situation and the ability to accept cottonseed at a high price is limited At the same time, the price of cottonseed is rising in some areas of China, but the sales of cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal in oil plants are not booming, and the market price is not only not rising, but also falling At present, the ex factory price of cottonseed oil in Hebei, Shandong and Henan is 5000-5100 yuan / ton, and the price of cottonseed meal is 1100-1180 yuan / ton If the purchase cost is calculated according to the current purchase price of cottonseed, the oil mill has been in a loss state For the current rise of domestic cottonseed prices, oil companies have been deeply worried With the increasing risk of high prices, oil companies are more and more difficult to bear, and will have to fade out of the market The rising market of cottonseed may stop because no one accepts it Second, the later sales of cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal will also be limited to a certain extent Because the price of cottonseed oil is about 1000 yuan (per ton) lower than the price of first-class soybean oil (5800-6000 yuan / ton) and vegetable oil (6000-6200 yuan / ton), with the recovery of temperature in various parts of the country, cottonseed oil will be widely used for blending with its obvious price difference advantage, and the sales will gradually increase However, at present, the price of 24 degree palm oil is about 4700 yuan / ton, which is cheaper than that of cottonseed oil With the approach of summer, the domestic temperature will further rise Palm oil will enter the market on a large scale for blending, which will inevitably have a serious impact on the cottonseed oil market (palm oil once occupied half of the domestic edible oil market in the summer of recent two years) Domestic cottonseed oil will again face resistance , the market will also be limited In the future, the main reason why the domestic cottonseed market will be strong is that its price is relatively low, and the market supply is tight due to the shortage of cottonseed supply and pressing volume However, cottonseed meal belongs to high calorie feedstuff after all, and its protein content is relatively low With the recovery of domestic temperature, the proportion of cottonseed meal in livestock feed will be continuously reduced Although the domestic aquaculture feed demand is relatively strong, its main feed is also mostly rapeseed meal, and the market sales scope of cottonseed meal is gradually shrinking, which will restrain the rising space of its price Obviously, the price increase of domestic cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal in the future will be limited, which will also have a negative impact on the cottonseed market 3 The lack of rising power in the soybean market has affected the domestic oil and fat market as we all know Among the domestic oil and fat varieties, the soybean and its product market has always played an important role, and has a deep impact on the cottonseed market The prices of domestic cottonseed, cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal have gone up and down with their fluctuations Previously, many domestic and foreign analysis institutions predicted that the supply of domestic imported soybeans would be cut off in April, but according to the latest information, the arrival volume of domestic imported soybeans reached 1.67 million tons in March, slightly higher than expected, and the total arrival volume in April would reach 1.8-2 million tons, with a significant increase As of the end of March, there are nearly 1.3 million tons of imported beans in China, which means that the total supply of imported beans in April is about 3 million tons With a large number of South American soybeans listed and arrived in May, the port of our country may also usher in the peak of South American soybeans import In the future, the supply of domestic imported soybeans will not be cut off and very sufficient, and the market price of domestic soybeans will not rise sharply as a result Therefore, the domestic oil and fat industry will be suppressed, which will affect the continuous increase of domestic cottonseed market price 4 The new rapeseed will be on the market in May, and the main production areas in South China will be on the market in summer The early maturing varieties in some areas of the middle and lower reaches of the Yangtze River may start harvesting in April According to the forecast, due to the bad weather in the production area this year, the rapeseed production will probably fall from 13 million tons to 11 million tons Therefore, the price of rapeseed, rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal may not fall seriously in the rapeseed purchase season However, with the large-scale listing of rapeseed oil and rapeseed meal, its market price is bound to be lower than that of cottonseed oil and cottonseed meal, and it will occupy the market share with obvious advantages The cottonseed market will still bear a great impact, and the rising market will be frustrated 5 The quality of cottonseed will generally decline, which will affect the price rise With the end of cottonseed purchase in China, the quality of cottonseed will continue to decline, and the proportion of red seed and dried seed will continue to increase Especially near the hot summer, due to the limited storage conditions, the proportion of cottonseed quality change is relatively high, which will affect the oil content and oil yield of cottonseed in the later period According to the forecast, in the later stage, the oil content of general cottonseed will decrease by 1-2 percentage points, and the accepted price of oil plant will also be lowered accordingly, which will eventually affect the continued increase of cottonseed market