The Ministry of Agriculture estimates that the new supply of wheat this year is 11% higher than that of last year

Introduction: according to the monitoring of the market early warning system of the Ministry of agriculture, in terms of production, affected by price rise, benefit improvement, policy support and normal climate and other factors, the planting area of winter wheat is expected to increase by more than 10 million mu in 2005 At present, the growth of wheat seedling before winter is generally good, but it also faces many new situations, mainly some of which are serious Some of the main wheat producing areas are suffering from freezing damage, diseases and insect pests, and waterlogging, which deserves great attention Import and export: according to the statistics of the General Administration of customs, in 2004, China imported 7.2334 million tons of wheat, an increase of 16.05 times over the previous year, and exported 803000 tons, a decrease of 64.31% over the previous year In January this year, 791200 tons were imported, an increase of 19.17 times on a year-on-year basis; and 6100 tons were exported, a decrease of 91.41% on a year-on-year basis In terms of import and export countries, China imported 298800 tons of wheat from Canada and 285700 tons of wheat from Australia in January, accounting for 38% and 36% of the total imports respectively Judgment of domestic supply and demand: due to the increase of wheat output in 2004 and the expansion of wheat import scale, it is estimated that the new supply of wheat in 2004 / 05 will increase by 11% compared with the previous year At the same time, as the domestic wheat price is at a high level, the export, feed and industrial consumption have decreased, and the total consumption of wheat has decreased by 4.3% compared with the previous year However, the newly increased supply of wheat in the current year still cannot meet the current consumption, which needs to be made up by using inventory Judgment of international supply and demand: according to the latest forecast of relevant parties, the global wheat output in 2004 / 05 increased by 12.55% compared with the previous year, and the total wheat supply increased by 4.54% At the same time, global wheat consumption increased by 3.10% It is expected that the global wheat ending inventory will increase by 11% compared with the previous year, the first increase since 2000 / 01 The inventory consumption ratio was 23.92%, an increase of 1.70 percentage points over the previous year Domestic price trend: in terms of purchase price, the purchase price of wheat in the main production area continues to rise In January, the purchase price of wheat in the main production area was 74.15 yuan per 50 kg, an increase of 2.30% over the previous month and a year-on-year increase of 21.36% In terms of wholesale price, the wholesale price of common and high-quality wheat decreased slightly In February, the average wholesale price of common wheat in Zhengzhou grain market was 78 yuan / 50 kg, down 0.40% compared with the previous month, but still up 7.44% year on year; the wholesale price of high-quality wheat was 80 yuan / 50 kg, down 0.61% compared with the previous month, up 2.21% year on year International price trend: affected by the substantial increase of global wheat production and the resumption of export subsidies by the European Union, the spot and futures prices of wheat in the international market showed a continuous downward trend from January to February 2005 In terms of spot goods, the FOB price of hard red spring wheat at the Northwest Pacific port in February was US $201 / ton, down 4.51% from last month, up 6.77% year on year In terms of futures, the price of hard red spring wheat on the Minneapolis exchange in February was 123.61 US dollars / ton, down 1.86% from last month and 18.84% year on year