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The three-day 2021 national medical insurance negotiations are in progress
.
According to the "2021 National Medical Insurance Drug Catalogue Adjusted List of Nominated Drugs Passed Preliminary Formal Review", there are many PARP inhibitors, BTK inhibitors, ADCs, CAR-T drugs, etc.
included in this medical insurance negotiation
.
In addition, a number of new indications for domestically produced PD-1 inhibitors have reopened medical insurance negotiations
.
Participate in the negotiation of key enterprises, including Medicare Hengrui Medicine, Cinda biological, Baiji Divine, Rongchang biological, Beta Pharma, Fosun Pharma, Hai Sike and so on
.
Judging from the experience of several rounds of medical insurance negotiations in the past years, the average decline in almost every round of negotiations has to be more than 50%, and the average decline in 2019 is more than 60%
.
50%-60%, this is the outside world's prediction of the average drop in drug prices during the medical insurance negotiations
.
According to the 2021 National Medical Insurance Drug Catalog Adjustment Work Plan, this catalog adjustment will be completed before the end of this year, and strive to start implementation in January 2022
.
So, how to seize investment opportunities next? Drugs included in medical insurance can enjoy the bonus of hospital admission and the increase in demand for new patients through substantial profit distribution, thereby gaining an increase
.
Essence Securities previously pointed out that in many medical insurance negotiations in the past few years, pharmaceutical companies’ related drugs have achieved the goal of "price-for-quantity"
.
After the price drop, third-party data pointed out that the drugs included in the medical insurance catalog after medical insurance negotiations from 2017 to 2019 have achieved 128%, 337%, and 39% growth in sales in 2020 relative to the year of inclusion
.
Yuekai Securities believes that medical insurance negotiations, as an important catalyst for increasing the volume of drugs, are an important link in linking the development and commercialization of innovative drugs
.
A longitudinal comparison of historical medical insurance negotiations shows that the overall average price reductions negotiated in 2018, 2019, and 2020 reached 56.
7%, 60.
7%, and 53.
8%.
The average price reductions of national drug purchase prices carried out in different periods were close to 50%-60%.
Between
.
The agency recommends grasping investment opportunities in innovative drugs and CXO
.
Innovative drugs are accelerating their advancement into the medical insurance catalog.
According to institutional data, there are about 20 domestically-made innovative drugs that may be negotiated for the first time.
Among them, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, BeiGene, Rongchang Biologics, and Hutchison Pharmaceuticals all have 2 innovative drugs.
Eligible to participate in the national medical insurance negotiation for the first time, Betta Pharmaceuticals, Hansen Pharmaceuticals, Fosun Kate, Nuocheng Jianhua, Haisco, Zejing Pharmaceuticals, Simcere Pharmaceuticals, Iris, CStone Pharmaceuticals, Addison Pharmaceuticals And other companies have 1 innovative drug eligible to participate in the negotiation for the first time
.
Among these 20 varieties, some varieties such as Nuocheng Jianhua's Obutinib have a relatively good competition pattern.
If they are included in the medical insurance, they are expected to accelerate the increase in volume and seize the market
.
The manager of the Great Wall Healthcare Fund pointed out that with the promotion of policies and the promotion of medical technology, the commercialization of innovative drugs has been greatly accelerated, and the growth rate in the next few years will be very considerable
.
Although affected by the epidemic factors, the pace of the approval of innovative drugs this year has been delayed, but after the end of the year China’s new crown vaccine coverage target is reached, the approval of innovative drugs will begin to resume.
It is expected that innovative drug companies should go overseas in the fourth quarter of this year.
China’s innovative drugs There will be very big changes compared to before
.
In addition, it believes that from next year, China's innovative medicines can continue to see relatively large developments
.
CXO has benefited from the global industrial chain transfer, domestic engineer dividends, cost advantages, accelerated drug review reforms and upgrades in drug innovation, and domestic CXO companies have shown a very high degree of prosperity
.
As domestic innovation continues to be hot, CXO orders are expected to continue to be saturated
.
.
According to the "2021 National Medical Insurance Drug Catalogue Adjusted List of Nominated Drugs Passed Preliminary Formal Review", there are many PARP inhibitors, BTK inhibitors, ADCs, CAR-T drugs, etc.
included in this medical insurance negotiation
.
In addition, a number of new indications for domestically produced PD-1 inhibitors have reopened medical insurance negotiations
.
Participate in the negotiation of key enterprises, including Medicare Hengrui Medicine, Cinda biological, Baiji Divine, Rongchang biological, Beta Pharma, Fosun Pharma, Hai Sike and so on
.
Judging from the experience of several rounds of medical insurance negotiations in the past years, the average decline in almost every round of negotiations has to be more than 50%, and the average decline in 2019 is more than 60%
.
50%-60%, this is the outside world's prediction of the average drop in drug prices during the medical insurance negotiations
.
According to the 2021 National Medical Insurance Drug Catalog Adjustment Work Plan, this catalog adjustment will be completed before the end of this year, and strive to start implementation in January 2022
.
So, how to seize investment opportunities next? Drugs included in medical insurance can enjoy the bonus of hospital admission and the increase in demand for new patients through substantial profit distribution, thereby gaining an increase
.
Essence Securities previously pointed out that in many medical insurance negotiations in the past few years, pharmaceutical companies’ related drugs have achieved the goal of "price-for-quantity"
.
After the price drop, third-party data pointed out that the drugs included in the medical insurance catalog after medical insurance negotiations from 2017 to 2019 have achieved 128%, 337%, and 39% growth in sales in 2020 relative to the year of inclusion
.
Yuekai Securities believes that medical insurance negotiations, as an important catalyst for increasing the volume of drugs, are an important link in linking the development and commercialization of innovative drugs
.
A longitudinal comparison of historical medical insurance negotiations shows that the overall average price reductions negotiated in 2018, 2019, and 2020 reached 56.
7%, 60.
7%, and 53.
8%.
The average price reductions of national drug purchase prices carried out in different periods were close to 50%-60%.
Between
.
The agency recommends grasping investment opportunities in innovative drugs and CXO
.
Innovative drugs are accelerating their advancement into the medical insurance catalog.
According to institutional data, there are about 20 domestically-made innovative drugs that may be negotiated for the first time.
Among them, Hengrui Pharmaceuticals, BeiGene, Rongchang Biologics, and Hutchison Pharmaceuticals all have 2 innovative drugs.
Eligible to participate in the national medical insurance negotiation for the first time, Betta Pharmaceuticals, Hansen Pharmaceuticals, Fosun Kate, Nuocheng Jianhua, Haisco, Zejing Pharmaceuticals, Simcere Pharmaceuticals, Iris, CStone Pharmaceuticals, Addison Pharmaceuticals And other companies have 1 innovative drug eligible to participate in the negotiation for the first time
.
Among these 20 varieties, some varieties such as Nuocheng Jianhua's Obutinib have a relatively good competition pattern.
If they are included in the medical insurance, they are expected to accelerate the increase in volume and seize the market
.
The manager of the Great Wall Healthcare Fund pointed out that with the promotion of policies and the promotion of medical technology, the commercialization of innovative drugs has been greatly accelerated, and the growth rate in the next few years will be very considerable
.
Although affected by the epidemic factors, the pace of the approval of innovative drugs this year has been delayed, but after the end of the year China’s new crown vaccine coverage target is reached, the approval of innovative drugs will begin to resume.
It is expected that innovative drug companies should go overseas in the fourth quarter of this year.
China’s innovative drugs There will be very big changes compared to before
.
In addition, it believes that from next year, China's innovative medicines can continue to see relatively large developments
.
CXO has benefited from the global industrial chain transfer, domestic engineer dividends, cost advantages, accelerated drug review reforms and upgrades in drug innovation, and domestic CXO companies have shown a very high degree of prosperity
.
As domestic innovation continues to be hot, CXO orders are expected to continue to be saturated
.
