The main theme of this year's domestic corn market

Introduction: industry authorities believe that the industry authorities believe that the domestic corn price will show a rising trend in 2003, and it is expected that the corn price will still fall slightly in the short term, and it will pick up after May, and come out of a round of rising market It is conservatively estimated that the price of Jilin corn car plate in the main production area will reach about 1000 yuan / ton before the new year Since the second and third months after the festival are the off-season for the production and marketing of breeding and feed enterprises, and before that, the breeding and brewing enterprises have sufficient sources of goods, and the corn demand is not large in the near future, driving the price down In March and April, with the completion of the northeast corn acquisition, the enthusiasm of farmers in the northeast and related areas to prepare for farming and sell grain will be active again; After the electrification of the Northeast Railway is completed, the shortage of corn transportation capacity in Northeast China will be greatly relieved; According to the industry information, this year's national grain storage rotation and northeast three provinces and Inner Mongolia Chen corn auction sales will also be held, at that time, these factors will jointly promote the corn price to fall in the short term According to the analysis of relevant people, although the domestic corn price faces a short-term decline situation, the decline should be small Currently, the corn price in Jilin, the main production area, has dropped to 900 According to the protection price of 860 yuan / ton of corn purchased this year, plus the purchase cost and appropriate profits, the sales price should be about 900 yuan / ton, while the current price of Jilin corn car board is only 920 yuan / ton, which shows that the space for corn price to fall is basically closed The fundamental factor determining the price trend of corn market is the relationship between supply and demand According to the analysis of corn supply and demand at home and abroad and corn present and futures market, supported by many favorable factors, the price of corn market in China will rise steadily from May to the time when corn is renewed First of all, according to the latest research report of the State Food Administration, In terms of GAD supply, although corn in the main production area got a good harvest last year, farmers did not increase their income, and soybean prices rose Farmers will plant soybeans in part of the land where corn is planted, and the country will expand the planting area of high oil soybeans in Northeast China, This year, the planting area of corn in China will decline According to the prediction of the national grain and oil information center, the new supply of corn in 2002 / 03 is expected to reach 12.2 billion tons, including 124 million tons of corn output Because the international corn market price is still at a high level this year, and China's corn supply is still sufficient, it is expected that the domestic corn import volume will be low this year, only 20 Ten thousand tons In terms of GAD consumption, although it is unlikely to see rapid growth in corn consumption in the short term, it will maintain a steady and slightly increased trend It is estimated that the total domestic corn consumption this year is 129.4 million tons, including 89 million tons of feed corn, an increase of 2 million tons year on year; 12.5 million tons of industrial corn, an increase of 2 million tons; 10 million tons of corn export, an increase of 140 million tons In terms of GAD inventory, in 2002 / 03, China's corn final inventory will be reduced by 5.2 million tons, which is the third consecutive year of reduction Authorities predict that in 2001 / 02-2002 / 03, China's corn inventory level (including state-owned and peasant household stocks) will reach the lowest level since 1996 / 97 In addition, last year, after the opening of corn market in North China, Huang Huai Region, The corn inventory has declined significantly, and the impact of the local grain sector's corn inventory on the market has been significantly reduced In addition to the development of the breeding industry and corn deep processing industry, the local corn supply is insufficient, which prompted the northeast corn to enter the customs in advance at the end of last year Moreover, the recent stock exchange asked for public opinions on the corn futures contract and relevant trading rules, It indicates that corn futures may be reintroduced in China again, which will play a huge role in promoting the development of China's corn industry and the development of corn spot price Finally, GAD, this year's international situation is volatile, the nuclear crisis on the Korean Peninsula and the tension in the coming war between the United States and Iraq will certainly drive the price of international agricultural products up Chicago corn futures is likely to rise sharply after the outbreak of the war, and the price of corn in the international market is expected to continue to rise According to the relevant industry insiders of GAD, there are still uncertain factors in the domestic corn market from China's corn export policy this year Although the market practice of one year since joining the WTO proves, China has the ability to maintain a high level of export while ensuring the basic stability of domestic corn prices The U, Two corn exporters, COFCO and Kyrgyz, have not yet begun to offer their prices for shipment beyond April