The main factors influencing the price of corn in the future market in China

Introduction: there are five factors that affect the overall trend of corn price in the future: first, the grain sales policies of the major corn producing provinces As China's accession to the WTO is imminent, the main producing provinces in the North generally hope to reduce the inventory level of corn before China's accession to the WTO, so the sales enthusiasm is high Especially since July, the continuous decline of corn market price has increased the sales pressure and ex warehouse enthusiasm of the northern grain sector, which has obviously increased the pressure on the domestic corn market price In addition, China's recent policy of moderately restoring the sale of aged grain will also put some pressure on the market price The second is the supply of new maize and the time of centralized supply This year's corn production in the Huang Huai Region of North China is expected to be 44 million tons, close to the level of the previous year Due to the cancellation of corn protection and purchase price policy in the region this year, the degree of market commercialization and quantity of export will be higher than that of the previous year, which will also form a certain pressure on the market price of corn However, considering that the region is also an important corn market area, the increase of export quantity will lead to the increase of its dependence on northeast corn in the future Therefore, in the spring of 2002, the corn supply in the region may be out of stock earlier than the normal year The third is the supply and centralized supply time of New Maize in Northeast China This year, the corn output of four provinces in Northeast China is expected to be 33 million tons, an increase of 3.5 million tons compared with the previous year Therefore, the export transportation capacity will be appropriately enhanced At the same time, at present, there is no obvious mentality of reluctant to sell corn among farmers and grain departments in Northeast China, so the supply to Guannei area will start smoothly at the end of this year The fourth is the enthusiasm of the grain sector in Northeast China to purchase corn This year, the quality of corn in Northeast China is generally lower than that in the previous year In addition, this year, the new quality standard of unit weight has been implemented, so the quantity of substandard corn will be higher than that in the previous year This will probably affect the enthusiasm of the grain sector to purchase, and make it difficult for corn prices in the northeast region to rise The fifth is the purchasing quantity and enthusiasm of grain consuming units At present, the domestic corn supply is still abundant, so between the fourth quarter of this year and the first quarter of 2002, the purchasing enthusiasm of feed and breeding enterprises and corn deep processing enterprises will not be very high In addition, the supply of aged grain, aged wheat and corn will begin to increase, which will to some extent limit the enthusiasm of grain users to purchase new corn, and further affect the market price of corn.