The last madness of pig prices: pig production capacity restored to 90%, the next step pork or

Let everyone did not expect is that the pig "flying up"! Pork prices in more than 20 yuan has been more than a year, when can be reduced to 10 yuan? Is it still the year of "diamonds" to raise pigs? The situation may not be optimistic! First, the production capacity recovery of 90% since the beginning of 2018 non-plague, pig stock continued to decline, in 2019 the shortage of pigs about 40%, which also provides more bottom gas for pig prices.
after all, China is a large producer and consumer of pork, consuming about 55 million tons per year, more than 50% of the world's total consumption.
from August 2019, pig prices ushered in a "rocket-style" rise, the highest pig price rose to 23 yuan per catty, pork 40 yuan a jin.
However, with the increase of national regulation and control, China's pig production capacity has also ushered in a phased recovery, it is understood that in the first three quarters of 123,000 new farms to join the breeding, there are 134,000 empty-bar pig farms re-breeding, in October, nearly 800 new farms, we can see the recognition of the pig industry, many people cross the border to raise pigs.
By the end of November, pig production capacity has been restored to more than 400 million, the recovery rate is more than 90%, while sow production is restored to 41 million head, pig production capacity is expected to achieve a full recovery in March-June next year, when pig prices will inevitably cause inhibition.
, production capacity recovery, why the price of pigs also rose sharply? Since September, pig prices have shown a clear decline, has been depressed until November, the grass-roots resistance to the decline in pig prices is relatively large, so in December all parties holding pig main body are selling, slaughter enterprises can not receive pigs, can only be forced to increase prices.
average price of pigs has risen to 33.89 yuan / kg compared to yesterday's weak rise of 0.05 yuan / kg.
the wholesale price of pork rose to 43.83 yuan/kg, up 4.56 yuan/kg from 39.27 yuan/kg in November.
in November, the price of meat 20-24 yuan per catty, now the retail price has risen to 25-28 yuan per catty.
The rise in pork, on the one hand, is the increase in the amount of pickled bacon in the south, from November in the southwest, central China to buy pork consumption demand rose, November's rural pork trading volume rose 6.5 percent, up 9.3 percent year-on-year, which also let pork continue to rebound.
on the one hand, New Year's Day approaching, butchers are also accelerating the stock, the demand for pigs increased, the breeding side of the bullish mentality is strong, pig enterprises are not willing to go out of the column.
these factors, pork market ushered in a rebound, for many farmers, this may be the last madness, the last high price.
3, adverse factors increased 1, reserve frozen meat put a few days ago, the official put 20,000 tons of frozen meat reserves, this news led to a lot of hot discussion, after all, the january-September pig prices did not rise, and the reserve frozen meat has a lot to do with the successive delivery.
this time the 20,000 tons of reserve frozen meat, but also let pig prices ushered in a brief decline, but today rebounded and rose, it can be seen that the reserve frozen meat is still effective.
It seems that 20,000 tons of frozen meat reserves are not much, China's one-day pork consumption of 130,000 tons, but because frozen meat prices are much cheaper, driving the market price to cool down, compared to the direct delivery of pigs to rely on.
in fact, pig storage in November increased by 16% month-on-month, 66% higher than last year, pig prices are still rising, more direct than frozen meat.
the release of frozen meat, is also the official attitude, is expected to be the next weekly stock of frozen meat, so as to control prices.
that since the suspension of frozen meat in September, the inventory balance of more than 2 million tons, it can be seen that the official has enough frozen meat, and more safe than imported meat.
2, imports accelerated from the United States the latest news, this week the United States exported 84,200 tons of pork, up 154% month-on-month, and the largest buyer is China, China purchased 37,700 tons of U.S. meat.
the arrival of imported meat, will certainly make China's pork supply ushered in an increase.
pork imports in the first three quarters of this year reached 3.28m tonnes, while imports in October and November were 330,000 tonnes and 250,000 tonnes respectively.
in fact, the normal year of pork imports of less than 1.2 million tons, that is, 19 years of pork imports increased significantly, but also less than 2 million tons.
this year's increase in imports, but also the official control stepped up the performance, in order to stabilize pig prices.
3, the amount of slaughter increased by 4.5503 million head of slaughter how much directly reflects the market supply of pork, supply increased, that the stability of meat prices play a decisive role, but the amount of slaughter decreased, that supply is tight, pig market will inevitably continue to rise.
this year's slaughter figures, the number of slaughters fell to 8.3209 million in January from 1.5934 million in February, but has since risen back to 138 in May 521,000 head, but then fell again in June-July, with the exception of February, when slaughter fell to a one-year low of 11.7121 million, or 377,800 a day.
But with the continued recovery of pig production capacity, slaughter volume also continued to rebound and rise, which followed a "four-day increase", in October slaughter volume of 14.3327 million head, but in November has risen to 16.2624 million head, up 12.46% month-on-month, the average daily slaughter volume rose to 542.08 million head.
July lows, slaughter volumes jumped 4.5503 million.
and the increase in slaughter also shows that the supply of pork continues to increase, to stabilize pig prices can also play a certain effect, to avoid the blind rebound of the pork market.
and the current surge in pork prices has a lot to do with the hype.
, the decline in farm profits is now coming to an end in 2020, from the full-year pig market, breeding profits are still relatively impressive, this year's lowest profits are the highest in the past years.
from the profit analysis of the past 5 years, the 2016 breeding market is good, the average profit is 553.14 yuan per head, the highest is 853.83 yuan per head, which is also a historical high price.
but starting in 2019, pig profits continue to increase, with a maximum profit of 3,155.92 yuan per head, and a pig's profit equals the profit from raising four pigs in the past.
But by 2020, the profit before the Spring Festival was 2,983.8 yuan per head, which was also the highest point of the year, and then, with pork transfer blocked and pig production capacity backlog, pig prices fell to a one-year low in May, when the profit was 1,235.26 yuan per head.
the end of May, the supply of pigs increased, the market is seriously short of pigs, prices rose again, July's farm profit of 2591.65 yuan per head.
But since September, pig prices have fallen again, with October's profit falling to 1,360.4 yuan per head, but still above the peak of the normal year and 507.02 yuan per head above the 16-year high.
today's feed prices continue to rise, corn this year rose 700 yuan per ton, soybeans in the year rose 1800-2000 yuan per ton, a pig's breeding costs increased by more than 100 yuan.
this is not the most worrying, with many believe that as capacity continues to recover next year, pig prices will fall and farm profits will gradually fall.
National hope Liu Yong good think that pork should fall to 8 yuan is appropriate, and Tang God chairman think that the price of meat may fall to 4-5 yuan, although more exaggerated, but the risk of future pig farming gradually increased, is expected to fall significantly in the fourth quarter of 2021, when the price of pigs or fell to 10 yuan, meat prices in 15-18 yuan.
Most worried is that after the production capacity returned to the normal level of previous years, can breed sows are still increasing, when the pig production capacity is still rising, once really, 2022 pork is really afraid to fall to 8 yuan.
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