The Iraq war affects the world grain pattern

Introduction: on March 26, the Ministry of Commerce announced that if the war in Iraq ends in a short time, it will not have a significant impact on the economy and food trade, but if it is a long-term war, it will affect the global economy and the food market Song Guoqing, a professor of China Economic Research Center at Peking University, said in an interview with this newspaper, "although the war in Iraq will increase the cost of grain transportation, and also make the United States restrain the grain export of Asian countries, these effects are only apparent in the long-term situation of the war At present, the effect is not obvious." According to the information from the Ministry of Commerce of the people's Republic of China, although the futures and spot prices in the grain market have not fluctuated greatly due to the war at present, there have been some changes in the grain trade in the international market: due to the suspension of the "oil for food" plan by the United Nations, the trade between Australia and other major grain exporting countries to Iraq has been terminated For AWB alone, the war cost it a $800 million wheat market trade in Iraq and forced it to look for new buyers At the same time, war will lead to increased freight Although the oil price of baa5 fell after the war, mainly due to the repeated hype in the early market, many experts expect that freight will continue to be bullish as the war continues In addition, at present, some shippers are not willing to offer forward freight The increase of freight is bound to increase the import cost of importers In addition, the pattern of grain import in Asia will be changed due to the war First of all, trade in the Middle East will undoubtedly suffer Food imports will be suspended If the war lasts too long and there is a rush to buy, the situation will become more serious Other countries and regions may also have supply shortages due to transportation difficulties of major grain suppliers such as the United States, and seek new suppliers again Some non-traditional grain suppliers will join in, and the traditional trade pattern will change The outbreak of the Iraq war has not had a significant impact on China's grain market But if the war lasts for a long time, it will certainly have a certain impact on China's grain import and export In terms of import, the war will play a certain role in restraining China's grain import As the main source of wheat and soybeans imported by China, the United States will increase its imports due to the increase of freight even if the export supply is not interrupted during the war Due to the rise of oil price in the early stage, the freight from Meiwan to China has risen to about 27 US dollars per ton, and the freight from Pacific Northwest Coast to China has also risen to 18 US dollars per ton Therefore, the freight has not changed significantly in recent days But if the war continues, it is bound to cause freight to rise again At present, some shippers are quite cautious and only willing to give a quotation for the freight of recent ships In addition, due to the war, the increase of insurance premium will directly lead to the increase of import cost The increase of import cost will directly affect the enthusiasm of importers, which will lead to the decrease of quantity On the soybean side, the soybean market will not be significantly affected, given that China has licensed Brazilian soybeans The enthusiasm of wheat importers will be affected To some extent, it will increase the number of substitution of domestic high-quality wheat and play a supporting role in the price of domestic high-quality wheat In terms of export, due to the war, China's grain export will face some new opportunities As a result of the war, Asian countries have been restricted to import grain from Europe and America, which makes them have to turn their eyes and seek new sources of import China's wheat and corn will be a better choice for Asian countries and regions First, China's wheat and corn prices are low; second, China's wheat and corn are abundant; third, the Chinese government encourages the export of corn and wheat In addition, small tonnage shipping can be adopted in transportation, which is conducive to the export to Southeast Asia Among them, the grain trade to Taiwan is worthy of attention In 2002, due to the high price of corn in the international market and the sequelae of the blockade of the northwest coast of the United States, Taiwan once allowed to import corn from the mainland of China At present, Taiwanese importers have begun to worry that the war will lead to the interruption of imports from the United States Taiwanese importers who have completed the April shipment have exited the market, waiting for authorities to allow corn imports from the mainland 90% of Taiwan's demand for corn, wheat and soybeans comes from the United States If the grain trade with the United States is hindered by the war, Taiwan's authorities will consider reducing their dependence on American supply Before the baa5, Taiwan's "Agriculture Committee" had set up an emergency response team to deal with the Middle East War, to maintain food for people's livelihood, and to stabilize the supply and price of bulk feed grain According to the "Agriculture Committee", when necessary, it would specially open up the import of materials from mainland China Taiwan's "agricultural committee" also said that the current wheat, corn and soybeans inventory can be maintained for two and a half months, the price is also very normal In the future, if there is a significant imbalance between supply and demand, or a sharp increase in price, the "agricultural committee" will not exclude the special project to open up the import of materials from the mainland In an interview, Song Guoqing also said that because China is in a situation of deflation, the price rise caused by the war will not have a direct impact on China bA5   bA5