The influence of WTO on domestic soybean market and the way out of soybean market

Introduction: after the approval of the Ministerial Conference of the World Trade Organization from November 9 to 13, China's accession to the WTO for 15 years will come to an end There is no doubt that the domestic agriculture will face great opportunities and challenges after China's accession to the WTO, and the relevant agricultural policies, import and export trade operation modes and so on will be adjusted accordingly Soybeans, as the only "pilot" variety in China, have accumulated experience on how to deal with the challenges of China's accession to the WTO Now, the author only discusses the soybean oil quota and the way out of the domestic soybean industry in the new situation 1、 The influence of soybean oil quota on soybean market 1 After China's entry into WTO, the gradual integration of domestic soybean market and international market is a major trend As the domestic soybean was opened before other food varieties, the import tariff of 3% has also met the requirements of GATT, and in the actual import and export, there is no quota problem for soybean Therefore, China's accession to the WTO has little direct impact on domestic soybean prices However, the implementation of soybean oil quota and the relative liberalization of soybean oil import will also have a complex impact on the domestic soybean market price Let's calculate the price gap of soybean oil at home and abroad after China's accession to the WTO On October 25, the price of soybean oil in CBOT market was 15.19 cents / pound, and the offshore premium was 0.20 cents After China's accession to the WTO, the tariff within the quota was 9%, the value-added tax was 13%, the ocean freight was 25 dollars / ton, and the port fee was 70 yuan / ton Therefore, the duty paid price of American soybean oil at the port can be simply calculated as: [(15.19 + 0.2 * 182.25 + 25 * 8.26)] * 1.09 * 1.13 + 70 = 3780 yuan / ton The price of domestic soybean oil of the same quality is more than 4400 yuan / ton, which is about 20% higher than the import cost of American soybean oil It can be seen that, after China's accession to the WTO, if the import of soybean oil is liberalized, the price of domestic oil market will be greatly impacted 2 The import of soybean and soybean oil will maintain the structural balance Soybean oil and soybean meal are the downstream products of soybean There is a dynamic balance in the price and total composition of the three products Generally speaking, one ton of soybean can produce 0.8 tons of soybean meal and 0.18 tons of soybean oil If more soybean oil is imported, it will reduce the amount of domestic soybean pressing, which will naturally reduce the import of soybean, and the reduction of soybean pressing will promote the price of soybean meal, which in turn supports the price of soybean Therefore, the total amount of soybean, soybean oil and soybean meal in China is stable, and the structure and quantity will keep a dynamic balance If the relative balance of soybean and soybean oil imports cannot be maintained, the market price of soybean and oil will fluctuate frequently According to information provided by relevant parties, the quota of soybean oil in 2002 will reach 2518000 tons, which is equivalent to the amount of oil extracted by importing 13.98 million tons of imported soybeans (also equivalent to the output of last year) It can be imagined what kind of chaos will be formed if all quotas are realized! It should be noted that although the soybean oil import quota is only a quantitative opportunity, not a necessary import target, driven by the interest of internal and external price differences, both state-owned and private enterprises will try to import as long as conditions permit Fortunately, in the years before China's accession to the WTO, most of the soybean oil quotas (90%) were in the hands of state-owned enterprises, which enabled the country to control the balance of soybean and soybean oil imports without losing control Therefore, the author believes that the proper control of soybean import by the state at present is the "foreshadowing" for the proper opening of soybean oil import at the beginning of next year Therefore, the impact of soybean oil quota on soybean market is dynamic and multi-level In short, when the import of soybean oil is relaxed, the demand for soybean will be reduced and the price of soybean will be suppressed In order to maintain the balance of the total amount of domestic oil, the measures taken in time to restrict the import of Soybean (adopting non-tariff barrier measures) will support the price of domestic soybean 2、 Thinking about the way out of soybean industry 1 The experience and lessons of soybean import liberalization Since 1996, like many developing countries, in order to keep the profits of soybean processing in China and protect the domestic oil processing enterprises, the state strictly controls the quota of soybean oil and at the same time liberalizes soybean import In recent years, under the background of strong domestic pressing demand, the domestic pressing industry, especially the soybean processing enterprises in the south, which use imported beans as raw materials, has grown rapidly and formed a certain scale The rise of crushing industry has laid the leading position of China in the world soybean demand market However, a large number of imports also limited the enthusiasm of domestic soybean production to a certain extent and missed a good opportunity to expand the scale of domestic soybean production Soybean production in China has been stagnant for years, which is in great contrast with the large-scale expansion of production in American countries 2 Continue to support the oil processing industry and create Chinese soybean brand products In the new situation that the output of South America almost catches up with that of the United States, and the output of the United States remains high, the way out for China's soybean is worth thinking about First of all, the increasing production of soybeans in South America makes it difficult for the global soybean price to rise If the United States continues to encourage farmers to plant soybeans in order to compete for the market share, and adopts the agricultural policy of maintaining a high loan rate for soybeans, it will further increase the supply pressure of soybeans in the world, and promote the price to keep falling Finally, the fish will die and the net will be broken Neither American nor South American farmers will benefit Thirdly, the global query on genetically modified products has increased the price gap between genetically modified and non genetically modified soybeans In order to protect the interests of the farmers in China, we have to choose the following two ways: first, to promote the cultivation of genetically modified soybeans, in order to improve the per unit yield and increase the income of soybean farmers Due to the limitation of land resources, the expansion of planting area is limited, and it is almost impossible to improve the per unit yield by improving production technology in China The most direct way to increase income is genetic improvement However, since then, it will make the domestic soybean lose the advantage of non GMO, and the global increasingly depressed soybean price will fall, but it will not achieve the purpose of increasing farmers' income Therefore, this choice is not wise Second, give full play to the non GMO advantages of China's soybean, improve the standardization and industrialization level of domestic soybean planting, launch Chinese soybean brand, and cultivate brand soybean processing products It can be said that the long-term plan for the development of the domestic soybean industry is to continue to support the oil processing industry, influence the international global soybean price with the strong domestic demand, and occupy the specific share of the international market with the high protein soybean and its products with non GMO advantages.