The influence of corn price in Northeast China on domestic market will be more year-round

Introduction: in the near future, the progress of corn acquisition in Northeast China slows down, and in the near future, the progress of corn acquisition in Northeast China slows down jkz The corn purchase of grain consuming units, traders and state-owned grain storage enterprises in Northeast China started after the end of the Spring Festival, which has lasted nearly a month, but the actual purchase situation is not ideal, especially the purchase quantity and progress is significantly lower than before the Spring Festival, and lower than the same period of the year According to a state-owned grain storage enterprise in Qiqihar region, jkz, the purchase work after the Spring Festival has been carried out for nearly three weeks, but the accumulated purchase amount is less than 100 tons, less than the purchase amount one day before the Spring Festival, and also significantly lower than the annual level The reason for this result is that the spring festival activities of local farmers last for a long time, but the more important reason is that the stock of corn of local farmers is not much The company believes that even in April, the number of local corn acquisitions will be difficult to grow Jkz is in Jilin Province The progress of corn purchase by the local grain department has also slowed down significantly after the Spring Festival The average weekly purchase quantity of the whole province is less than 200000 tons It is 75% less than before the Spring Festival and 30% less than the annual level The grain enterprises in Changchun, Siping, Songyuan and other places all reflect that the local farmers' grain resources are reduced and it is difficult to purchase Local grain companies and traders face the same problems The price of corn purchase in the northeast of jkz has risen with each passing day The number and progress of corn purchase in the northeast of jkz has slowed down, sending a signal to traders and grain consuming units that there is a shortage of grain resources, and stimulating their enthusiasm for purchase The price of corn purchase in the northeast of China has been rising steadily after the Spring Festival In early March of jkz, the purchase price of new corn in Harbin, Heilongjiang Province has exceeded 0.39 yuan / jin (water content 26%), and the purchase price of new corn in Jiamusi, Heilongjiang Province has increased to 0.31-0.33 yuan / (water content 28-30%); the purchase price of new corn in Changchun, Jilin Province is 0.40-0.42 yuan / jin (water content 26%) ）The average purchase price of new corn in Songyuan area is 0.38-0.39 yuan / jin (water content 27-28%) The price in the above regions is 1-3 points / Jin higher than that in mid February In the first ten days of March, a large-scale corn deep processing enterprise in Changchun area of Jilin Province in jkz had a new safety water corn price of 0.45 yuan / Jin, which was 2 points / Jin higher than that in the middle of February The closing price of corn in jkz Dalian port and Qinhuangdao port also increased from 1010-1020 yuan / ton in the middle of February to 1040-1050 yuan / ton, and at this price, traders' closing enthusiasm and closing quantity are not high Analysis of reasons for the slow down of acquisition progress in the northeast of jkz First of all, before the Spring Festival, the purchasing power of the grain sector is relatively strong, and most of the corn in the hands of farmers has been purchased before the festival, so the number of corn available for sale by farmers after the Spring Festival is not large In Jilin Province, for example, before the Spring Festival, the purchase volume of the grain sector has exceeded 9 million tons, accounting for 54% of the current corn production In the same period, the purchase volume of local grain consuming units and traders also exceeded 1 million tons According to rough calculation, before the Spring Festival, Jilin farmers have sold 60% of the corn production of that year After deducting 30% of the farmers' own consumption, the amount of corn available for sale by Jilin farmers after the Spring Festival will not exceed 1.7 million tons Secondly, jkz is the increase of farmers' psychology of reluctant to sell after the price rise The peak of grain sales before spring sowing in jkz is expected to be relatively flat Jkz considering that the main reason for the slow down of corn purchase in Northeast China is the decrease of corn stock of local farmers, this means that the second peak of grain sales in Northeast China will not appear this year, or the maintenance time after it appears will be significantly shorter than normal years, and its performance in the market will be relatively flat Jkz from this year's situation, due to the sharp decline in the stock level of farmers in Northeast China, the number of farmers selling grain before spring sowing will be significantly reduced compared with that of all the year round It is expected to decrease by 20-40% Analysis on the influence of the decrease of jkz purchase volume on the future market price It is expected that the amount of grain sold by farmers in Northeast China before spring sowing will be significantly reduced compared with that of the whole year, and the peak of grain sold before spring sowing will be flat compared with that of the whole year Therefore, the main factors that affect the domestic corn market price in the future will be changed from the past "state-owned grain storage enterprises' outbound volume" and "farmers' sales volume" to the "state-owned grain enterprises' outbound volume" as a single factor This also means that in the future, the impact of corn prices in Northeast China on the domestic market will be more serious than that in other years JKZ   JKZ