The influence of China's grain international market after entering WTO

Introduction: after China's accession to WTO, China's agriculture is facing an international agricultural product market dominated by two forces, which dominate the direction of the international agricultural product market One is the export of agricultural products In order to open up the market, they strongly demand free trade of agricultural products when they make rules, which is very powerful in the international market, represented by the United States Its agricultural products have an absolute advantage in the world, and the annual trade surplus of the United States is more than 30 billion US dollars This is due to the development of the United States in the agricultural products market, and it is the largest competitor in China's grain industry Secondly, Cairns Group, which is composed of 15 countries, has a potential impact on China's agricultural products; these two forces will occupy the grain market in the eastern part of China Another strength of rjn is the country of agricultural products import In terms of trade, the world's largest import market with the ability to pay is the European Union, Japan and South Korea These two markets have always respected agricultural protection policies In the clear sense, China's agricultural products have comparative advantages in competition, but in fact, affected by the domestic protection policies of these countries, China's agricultural products can not enter these countries at all After China's accession to the WTO, the goal of our agricultural products export is the EU, Japan and South Korea market In this way, from the perspective of the market, the challenges from the United States and Cairns Group are realistic, and the products have advantages in quality, quality and price Under the influence of high protection policies, the comparative advantage and export potential of China's agricultural products cannot be transformed into reality Therefore, the challenge is realistic, the opportunity is latent, needs further development efforts, can transform into the export reality In this environment, China is facing such a problem: how to position China? Rjn China is a country with different regions What kind of identity does it take to participate in international competition? Do they represent the interests of exporting countries or do they benefit from imports? What are we going to do? Now I use the price of Chicago wheat market to explain my point This paper analyzes the pattern of China and the world agricultural products market and the influence of China on the world agricultural products market from two varieties of wheat and soybean In the international market, wheat is a relatively mature market product After our observation, we find a rule that if China's wheat market imports 1 million tons, the world wheat price will rise by 5% In 1995, China imported more than 15 million tons of wheat, so the price of the international wheat market in 1996 was 30% higher than that in 1994 and 1995 In fact, the international market has an expectation for China's wheat import It is believed that China's wheat import will increase, and many countries have used domestic leisure arable land resources for wheat planting, which has resulted in a five-year downturn in world wheat prices From the perspective of trade, it shows that the world's agricultural products are highly dependent on China, and China has played a role in the world's wheat import 。 If we can decide the direction of the world's agricultural products, then I am the boss, and I can decide you to avoid passive impact Now the question is, are we afraid of other people's impact? Or take advantage of our advantages to attack actively? Another extreme example of rjn is soybeans China's soybean market was opened in 1995 due to the shortage of domestic vegetable oil price and the need of animal husbandry development The result of opening up is the expansion of domestic crushing capacity, which has been expanded more than 100 times in five years The domestic import volume has reached more than 10 million tons, which has increased the per capita vegetable oil in China from about 5 kg five years ago to 10 kg now To make the international formation of a expectation for China is that China's demand for vegetable oil is very large This has formed an interesting phenomenon of soybean export to China As long as China increases soybean import, the world soybean price will drop, which is the opposite of wheat Behind the price drop is the increase of soybean planting in the United States and South America; for every 100 tons of soybean imported by China, the world soybean output will increase by 8.6%, the U.S soybean output will increase by 2.5%, and the U.S soybean export will increase by 3.4% Rjn, that is to say, after China's accession to the WTO, it is not allowed to passively change its impact on agricultural products It is necessary to give full play to the advantages of China's large agricultural production and consumption countries to control the international market I think after China's accession to the WTO, it should become the fifth party that determines the development direction of the world's agricultural products We can make full use of our huge consumption scale and potential to control the world market This requires us to innovate in terms of system and operation I think after China's accession to the WTO, the challenges are realistic and far-reaching, but if we can grasp them strategically, we should say that these risks can be transformed into our opportunities rjn (author:) to share with feed micro blog