The influence of China's accession to WTO on soybean meal market

Introduction: 1 Impact on soybean market According to China US bilateral agreements and China Canada bilateral agreements, China will provide 1.7 million tons of soybean oil import quota and 600000 tons of rapeseed oil import quota in the first year after China's accession to the WTO, which will increase to 3.3 million tons and 1.13 million tons respectively before 2005, and the tariff level will be reduced to 9%; the import tariff of soybean will be reduced to 3% immediately after China's accession to the WTO In addition, due to the impossibility of implementing soybean import quotas, soybean imports will remain at a high level in the future, while the European Union may require China to increase the import quotas of rapeseed or rapeseed, and Malaysia and Indonesia will also require China to increase the import quotas of palm oil Therefore, China's import scale of oil and grease will expand rapidly in the future Due to the improvement of consumption level, the annual shortage of vegetable oil in China has increased from about 1 million tons in the early 1990s to about 4 million tons, and the domestic supply level has been growing Therefore, China's accession to WTO will help alleviate the gap between supply and demand, but it will have a great impact on domestic oil and oil industry, especially soybean oil and soybean industry 1 Soybean production will be affected: after China's accession to the WTO, due to the increase of corn import, the corn planting area in Northeast and North China will be reduced, and the large planting area and yield will be increased accordingly If large imports remain at a high level, domestic soybean demand will be seriously affected In the long run, this situation is not conducive to the improvement of soybean production technology in China, and the gap between China and the United States will increase 2 Soybean crushing industry will be affected: as China will increase the import of soybean oil, many domestic oil mills will be severely impacted This kind of impact will not only show in quantity, but also in price Taking January 2000 as an example, the CIF price of crude soybean oil in the United States is about 4160 yuan / ton, which is nearly 2240-2640 yuan / ton lower than the domestic soybean oil price Moreover, the quality of imported crude soybean oil is equal to that of domestic secondary soybean oil Although it needs to be refined, its price is still significantly lower than that of domestic soybean oil In the past few years, a large number of small and medium-sized oil mills in China have been shut down or shut down due to the sharp increase of soybean oil imports In 1999, with the decrease of imported soybean meal, the price of domestic soybean meal rebounded, and some medium and small-sized oil extraction has begun to resume production However, after China's accession to the WTO, the influx of soybean oil and soybean meal will make small and medium-sized oil mills in trouble again 3 The sown area of domestic soybean will increase: influenced by the relationship between supply and demand, the market price of domestic soybean has declined in an all-round way since 1997, with an average decline of more than 30% Farmers in the production areas have reduced the soybean planting area Since China will increase the import of corn after entering WTO, and there is a serious surplus in the domestic corn market, the planting area of soybean in Northeast and North China will increase in terms of the production structure next year 4 The supply and demand relationship of domestic oil market will change: Due to the improvement of consumption level, the annual shortage of vegetable oil in China has increased from about 1 million tons in the 1990s to about 4 million tons Therefore, China's accession to WTO will help alleviate the gap between supply and demand However, after accession to WTO, China's imports of soybean, soybean oil, rapeseed oil and palm oil will remain at a high level, and the existing gap in the domestic market will soon disappear At the same time, there will be a growth process in the planting area and yield of domestic oilseeds It is reasonable to believe that shortly after China's accession to the WTO, the supply-demand relationship between oil and grease market will change from insufficient supply to supply-demand balance and supply surplus Due to the low price of oil and grease in the international market, the imported oil and grease can still occupy the domestic market share after the above changes in the supply-demand relationship, and the domestic market will be greatly impacted, thus fundamentally affecting the stability of the supply-demand relationship in the domestic oil market Second, the impact on the soybean meal market China will soon join the WTO According to the rules of WTO, China will open the agricultural product market to foreign countries From the current domestic and foreign price comparison of agricultural products, most of the prices of agricultural products in China are higher than the international market prices After entering the customs, low-cost and high-quality agricultural products in the international market will flow into China and impact the domestic market However, as the state has been encouraging the development of feed production and implementing the policy of liberalizing the operation of soybean meal, the import trade of soybean meal is not subject to any restrictions According to the "Sino US agricultural agreement" signed by the two countries, the import tariff of Chinese soybean meal will remain unchanged at the current 5% As a result, China's accession to the WTO has little impact on the domestic soybean meal market (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: