The influence of China's accession to WTO on Soybean Industry

Introduction: Tang Yanli, information center analysis Office of the Ministry of agriculture, passed all the legal documents of China's accession to the World Trade Organization in Geneva on September 17 this year, ending 15 years ago China is expected to officially become a member of the World Trade Organization at the beginning of next year China's accession to WTO will not only have a great impact on the whole agricultural economy, but also will have a profound impact on China's soybean industry The quota data used in the following analysis is my understanding of the relevant contents and reports of China's accession to the WTO Agreement on agriculture signed by China and the United States It does not affect the analysis results, so it is only for reference The specific data also depends on the relevant regulations of the Chinese government after China's accession to the WTO 1、 The current trade policy of soybean and its related products: Although the tariff quota policy is implemented for the import of soybean in China, the internal tariff of the quota is set at 3%, the tariff outside the quota is set at 114%, and the value-added tax is set at 13% However, in the actual operation process, China has already cancelled the import quota system, that is to say, how much soybean to import is decided by the traders according to the market situation and domestic demand There is no quota limit, and all import tariffs are implemented at 3% This shows that before China's accession to the WTO, China's soybean market has fully opened its door to the international market and joined the ranks of equal competition in the global scope Quota management is implemented for soybean oil import, which is in the charge of the National Planning Commission and the local planning commissions The tariff within the quota is 13%, the tariff outside the quota is 121.6%, and the value-added tax is 13% The tax rate of soybean meal is 5%, and the VAT is 13% 2001 import tax rate table of soybean and its related products commodity code commodity name with additional tax rate (%) VAT preference within quota (%) ordinary (%) 12010010 kinds of soybean 114 180 3 13 12010091 non species yellow soybean 114 180 3 13 12010092 non species black soybean 114 180 3 13 12010093 non species green soybean 114 180 3 13 12010099 Non seed soybean 114 180 3 17 12081000 soybean powder 40 70 9 13 15071000 primary soybean oil 121.6 190 13 15079000 other soybean oil 121.6 190 13 13.23040010 oil residue cake from soybean oil refining 5.30 no 13.23040090 other solid residue from soybean oil refining 5.30 No 13 data source: Practical Manual of customs declaration of China (2001) 2 China's soybean related trade policy after China's accession to the WTO From the content of the agricultural negotiations, China's accession to the WTO mainly includes the following aspects: 1 Market access: - tariff reduction: China's average tariff will be reduced from the current 22.1% to 17%, and the import tariff of agricultural products will be reduced to 14.5-15% Soybean tariff is 3% ——TRQ: it has a great impact on soybean oil In 2002, the quota of soybean oil will reach 2.518 million tons, the tariff within the quota will reach 13%, in 2003, the quota will reach 2.818 million tons, in 2004, it will reach 3.188 million tons, in 2005, the tariff within the quota will drop to 9%, and the tariff outside the quota will also drop from 63.3% to 9% ——Elimination of non-tariff trade barriers: China agreed to eliminate state monopoly of soybean oil, and the private sector began to obtain 50% of it, and then gradually increased to 90% 2 Domestic support: it has little impact on China - yellow box policy: a policy that can produce trade distortions, called the "yellow box" policy, which requires reduction, expressed in terms of the total amount of support (AMS) The policy scope of domestic support for concession commitment includes: price support, marketing loan, area subsidy, livestock quantity subsidy, seed, fertilizer, irrigation and other input subsidies, some subsidized loan plans, etc At present, China is actually negative, with 8.5% of the negotiations between China and the United States At present, China has no protection price for soybeans, so there is no yellow box subsidy 6tb -- green box policy: a policy that does not cause trade distortions, called "green box" policy, refers to the agricultural support measures that the government carries out when implementing an agricultural plan, the cost of which is borne by the taxpayer rather than transferred from the consumers, and has no impact on the producers These policies can be exempt from the concession commitment Green subsidy refers to the research on agricultural production, pest control, training services, public infrastructure construction, grading inspection services, public inventory for food protection, domestic food aid, natural disaster relief, expenditure on environmental protection and assistance to backward areas, etc.; since these expenses are not directly price support for producers, it is allowed to Xu continues to exist Most of China's current agricultural policies are in line with the "green box policy" stipulated in the agricultural agreement, but China's insufficient investment is the direction of policy-making in the future There is no green box subsidy for soybean industry in China 6tb blue box policy: China does not have, is not necessary, and is difficult to operate 3 Export subsidies: China promises to cancel export subsidies And since 1990, China has cancelled the export subsidies for soybeans 4 Agreement on sanitary and phytosanitary measures: Export: import: Regulations on genetically modified management and import inspection and quarantine system From the above policy situation, the direct impact of China's accession to the WTO on soybeans is the regulations on genetically modified management and the import inspection and quarantine system Under such a trade policy, China's soybean import volume will be reduced, which is conducive to the rise of domestic soybean market price, and for soybean producers, their interests will be protected to a certain extent At the same time, because China's soybeans are non transgenic soybeans, and the protein content is high, if we can improve the quality and packaging, it will have a great advantage in international competition The indirect impact on soybean will come from the changes of soybean oil and soybean meal in the industrial chain In 2002, the soybean oil quota was 2.518 million tons, which was equivalent to 13.99 million tons of soybeans Although the actual import volume may not reach this level at all, but because the domestic soybean oil price is higher than the international market soybean oil price, the increase of soybean oil import volume is an inevitable trend At the same time, because non-state-owned enterprises are allowed to use quotas, it will be difficult for the government to control the amount of imports The import of soybean oil is bound to reduce the crushing capacity of domestic soybean The policy tendency of the state to encourage the import of soybean raw materials to protect the domestic oil extraction industry will not be realized For the oil processing industry, especially the small and medium-sized oil extraction enterprises, they will be directly impacted by the import of soybean oil The increase of soybean oil import will lead to the decrease of soybean oil price and the decrease of oil extracting profit, but the welfare of consumers has been increased There is no change in the trade policy of soybean meal, but as a by-product of soybean, the production and operation of soybean meal must also comply with the marking system of genetically modified management regulations From this point of view, the value of domestic soybean meal will be increased Combined with the above factors, after China's accession to the WTO, soybean imports will decrease, soybean oil imports will increase, and the demand for soybean meal will promote the squeezing rate of domestic soybean Under such a supply and demand situation, the price of soybean and soybean meal will rise, and the price of soybean oil will show a downward trend 6tb