The inflection point of China's new drugs in 2022 appears

During the New Year's Day holiday of 2022, I visited the retired seniors of new drug investment again and asked Mr.

Mr.

Since the beginning of 2020, the direction of capital investment in new drugs has begun to change.

Please correct me for the following sorting

Current status of China's new drugs:

The overall strength of China's new drug industry is more than 30 years behind the international market.

Therefore, the current Chinese new drugs are basically tracking new drugs.

This inertia of thinking not only prevents us from trying to find new targets, but even the structure of new drugs is simply modified based on the existing activity of the same target

The problem is that the so-called "expedient measure" of using tracking new drugs to accumulate power and then turning to real new drugs is too naive, because so-called new drugs are fundamentally difficult to make profits.

Some people say that in the entire domestic new drug industry, only entrepreneurs and medical insurance are the beneficiaries

The main logic of Chinese new drugs:

First of all, the lack of core competitiveness of new drug companies is the first logical problem of new drugs

Secondly, the real new drug model is always risk-front, but the current China tracking new drug model is a serious risk-post model

On how long the current downturn in the capital market will last

At present, the primary and secondary markets of non-profit biotechnology companies are severely inverted.

Many people insist on believing that the current market downturn is short-lived and will ease in the third and fourth quarters of 2022

There are many people who hold this view, but Mr.

Others believe that there are many new drugs in the pipeline of listed companies, and there are always new drugs that can be profitable

Past practice has proved that even if a new tracking drug is approved for marketing in China, there is still no profit opportunity because there is no real innovation leading to a large number of homogenized analogs

Forecast for the next 5 years

With the emergence of single-variety new drug companies with huge market value, more and more investors understand new drugs, and the market will accept exclusive or disruptive single-variety new drug companies that truly solve clinical unmet needs, and the number of pipelines of those tracking new drug companies The more the valuation, the lower the valuation
.

The market value of CXO, with domestic new drug companies as its main customers, will further shrink significantly.
As the tracking new drug model will soon become unsustainable, it is normal for customers to experience large-scale “out of supply”
.

It is difficult for the capital market to have the patience for more than 5 years to believe these new drug companies that have been listed but not profitable.
If these listed new drug companies are still unprofitable within 2-3 years, it may not necessarily take 5 years to be eliminated by the capital market
.

The new drug company itself cannot achieve profitability in the Chinese market and therefore chooses the model of cooperation with domestic pharmaceutical companies, and the homogeneous tracking new drugs purchased by the pharmaceutical companies are still not profitable
.

Without the upgrade of basic scientific research at the national level, it is difficult for so-called platform companies to generate real value, similar to the legendary "dragon slaying technique"
.

The buy-buy-buy model will be questioned.
At present, the industry not only lacks the insight to discover real new drug business opportunities, but also lacks the corresponding rich operating experience in the Chinese market.
As a result, buying new drugs cannot be implemented and rooted is also a thinking misunderstanding after risk
.

Zhong Guo drug sign of maturity

Chinese original innovative drugs are recognized by the international market, not just international registrations
.

The discovery of new targets in China has become a new international drug
.

New drugs that are leaders in the Chinese pharmaceutical industry are also recognized in the global market
.

The positioning of new drug companies and generic drug companies has been clarified
.

Chinese original innovative drugs bought by international pharmaceutical companies can be profitable
.

The so-called "Chinese magic drug" that exists alone in China is no longer approved in China
.

The payment system is more scientific.
Whether to enter medical insurance is no longer the key to the commercialization of new drugs.
New drugs that solve practical clinical unmet needs and generate clear medical economic value will become the market leader
.

There is nothing new under the sun, and opportunities not seen by international leading companies are unrealistically discovered on a large scale by the young Chinese pharmaceutical industry
.
China's pharmaceutical industry has accumulated enough talents and capital.
What it needs now is the driving force and strategic thinking to actively participate in international competition
.
Only the world is national, and the invisible hand of the market knows no borders
.