The import of soybean oil will seriously impact the soybean market in China after entering WTO

Introduction: after China's accession to the WTO, China's soybean import status is the same as before, the tariff is still 3%, and there is no quota limit On the surface, it seems that China's accession to the WTO has little direct impact on the soybean market However, this is not the case After China's accession to the WTO, due to the great changes in the tariff quota system of the soybean oil market in China, the influx of a large number of soybean oil is bound to cause a great impact on the soybean market in China China is committed to liberalizing soybean oil trade by 2006 During the transitional period, the tariff quota system and the quasi state monopoly system will be implemented for soybean oil import From 2002, the initial quota was 2518000 tons, and the tariff within the quota was 13% By 2005, the quota will gradually increase to 3.587 million tons The tariff rate outside the quota was reduced to 20% The share reserved for private trading entities was increased to 90% of the quota before it was withdrawn Since 2006, the soybean oil tariff quota system and the quasi state monopoly system have been abolished, and only 9% of the tariff is levied on imports See the table below for details: soybean oil: annual tariff quota (million tons) proportion of state-owned companies% proportion of private enterprises% with additional tariff 2002 2.518 34 66 52.4 2003
2.818
26
74
41.6 2004
3.118
18
82
30.7 2005
3.587
10
90
19.9
In 2006, the tariff quota was cancelled and 9% tariff was collected China has always been a net importer of soybean oil After the opening of oil market in 1993, the domestic oil supply was insufficient and the price rose sharply From 1994 to 1997, China's soybean oil import increased from 76000 tons in 1993 to over 1 million tons After the state crackdown on smuggling in the second half of 1998, soybean oil imports decreased significantly From January to September 2001, China imported only 53000 tons of soybean oil, but the import of soybean increased significantly Therefore, the increase of domestic pressing makes up for the decrease of soybean oil import However, since 2002, China's soybean oil import quota will be greatly increased to 2.52 million tons, which will not only impact the domestic soybean oil market, but also have a greater impact on the domestic soybean market Let's take a look at the price of American soybean oil first The latest price of the December soybean oil contract on the Chicago Mercantile Exchange is 15.92 cents / pound, equivalent to 2880 yuan / ton Compared with the general domestic soybean oil price of 4000 yuan / ton, it is obvious that foreign soybean oil has a strong competitive advantage Therefore, it is not a problem for China to complete the quota of 2.52 million tons of soybean oil import next year If we use 18% oil output rate to calculate, this is equivalent to 14 million tons of soybean, which is exactly equal to the estimated soybean import volume in 2001 That is to say, China no longer imports soybeans, domestic soybean and soybean oil supply is enough But what about the supply of soybean meal? It's not good to rely on domestic crushing, because the soybean oil supply will greatly exceed the demand, and the crushing profit will not be allowed to do so The only way is to import In this way, the problem of domestic soybean oil and soybean meal supply has been solved However, the two treasures of soybeans: soybean oil and soybean meal are imported What about the 15 million tons of domestic soybeans every year? It can't be digested at home; it's not competitive to export; it's not allowed by WTO rules to restrict the import of soybean oil; it's subsidized by the government with limited financial resources, and there is no subsidy at present In the future, even if there is, it is estimated that farmers will not be hungry, and it will never reach the point of supporting the whole soybean market price The only way left for farmers is to reduce prices, reduce production, and even transfer production? It can be predicted that China's soybean market will present a more sluggish picture under the impact of imported soybean oil next year And next year, China's soybean planting will also suffer unprecedented coldness Finally, let's go back to Premier Zhu's words, "after China's accession to the WTO, I am most worried about China's agriculture." (author:) share to feed Weibo share to: