The impact of China's accession to WTO on agriculture and the Countermeasures

Introduction: on November 15, 1999, China and the United States reached a bilateral agreement on China's accession to the WTO, and China has made a great stride towards the door of the WTO It is planned that the WTO will organize the ninth round of multilateral trade negotiations in 2000, the so-called "Millennium Round" Agriculture will be the focus of the new round of negotiations Although there are still some technical barriers to China's accession to the WTO, in the long run, the trend of international economic integration is irreversible Whether China can join the World Trade Organization this year or not, we should carefully analyze the possible short-term and long-term impact on China's agriculture, formulate corresponding measures, develop strengths and avoid weaknesses, and strive to minimize the impact of accession to the WTO on China's agriculture Point After China's accession to WTO, China's future agricultural policy will be placed under the framework of WTO This paper attempts to analyze the short-term and long-term impact of China's accession to the WTO on agriculture, and puts forward some countermeasures to serve the government's decision-making In the past 20 years of reform and opening-up, China's agriculture has developed rapidly It has begun to bid farewell to the era of shortage and move towards a new stage of continuous pursuit of differentiation and improvement of quality At the same time, China's international trade in agricultural products has also been greatly developed But compared with developed countries, there is still a big gap, mainly in the small scale, low-grade, unreasonable market structure We51 Although China is the largest producer and consumer of agricultural products in the world, it has not actively participated in international trade Since the reform and opening up, although the scale of China's international trade in agricultural products has increased, its proportion in the total trade has gradually declined In 1997, China's total import and export of agricultural products accounted for only 7.6% of the total trade We5 2 Although the proportion of animal products and processed products tends to increase in recent years, and the proportion of agricultural products declines, the export trade of agricultural products in China generally presents the following characteristics: more primary agricultural products are exported, more commodities are exported, and more traditional products are exported; the grade of agricultural and sideline products is low, and the quality rate, commodity rate and foreign exchange earning rate are not high Thirdly, the export market structure of agricultural products is unreasonable, and the dependence on the markets of developed countries tends to increase China's bulk agricultural exports are concentrated in Hong Kong, Macao, Japan, the United States and Western Europe, while the market share of Eastern Europe, the Middle East, Latin America and Africa is very small China's grain and cotton are mainly imported from North America, while its horticultural products and processed food are mainly exported to East Asia, with Japan and Hong Kong as the main markets Live pigs are mainly exported to Hong Kong and Macao; pork is mainly exported to Russia and Hong Kong However, with the change of dietary structure and the increase of pork substitutes, the export to these areas is slowly declining We5 2 The impact of China's accession to the WTO on China's agriculture we5 1 The overall judgment of we5 in recent years, the impact of China's accession to the WTO on the world and China's own economy has become a focus of attention Many authoritative research results show that China's accession to the WTO will play a positive role in promoting the overall development of China's economy and the improvement of social welfare It has both advantages and disadvantages for the impact on China's agriculture It is generally agreed that corn, individual wheat, oil crops, sugar crops, soybeans, cotton and other crops with high cost of domestic resources will be impacted by imports Generally speaking, the comparative advantage of animal husbandry is better than that of planting The low cost of domestic resources in animal husbandry (except for milk and wool) will be the main beneficiary of China's accession to the world trade organization In the near future, the impact of China's accession to the WTO on China's agriculture is more harmful than beneficial Its main performance is in the following aspects: first of all, the current situation of we5 that does not have comparative advantage in general is difficult to change in the near future The production cost of agricultural products in China is generally higher than the world level, and it is at a disadvantage of price competition The analysis of the comparative advantage of the main agricultural products in China shows that the comparative advantage of the agricultural products in China is on the decline In 1987, China had a comparative advantage in 10 kinds of agricultural products By 1995, such agricultural products had dropped to 5 kinds Secondly, the quality of agricultural products with advantages restricts the export The contradiction between the quality and variety structure of China's agricultural products that do not adapt to the market demand is quite prominent In recent years, structural shortage and surplus have appeared alternately in the domestic market, and the loss of traditional overseas market of China's agricultural products due to quality problems is an example At present, China's agricultural products are not only difficult to enter and occupy the international market, even the occupied market may also be lost For example, the traditional fresh orange exported to Hong Kong in the past was replaced by the high-quality fresh orange from the United States because of its poor quality More prominent is the export of livestock products Under the background that the planting industry has no comparative advantage, the export of China's agricultural products depends on animal husbandry The recent policy orientation obviously regards animal husbandry as a new growth point of rural economy and farmers' income However, in the near future, China's livestock products are at a relative disadvantage in terms of quality and food safety, and the export situation is not optimistic Up to now, China's animal products have not joined the international anti epidemic organization in animal quarantine It is very difficult for China's live pigs, chickens and frozen meat to be exported to the European Union, Japan, the United States and other places, especially Europe and the United States The main reason is that China's veterinary health quality is not up to standard, the biggest problem is animal disease, and the fundamental reason is that the prevention and control system of animal disease is not perfect If the quality of livestock products in China is not improved, it will not only lose the competitiveness in the international market, but also lose a considerable domestic market share A recent research report from the United States pointed out that after China's accession to the WTO, the United States will increase its exports of pork and poultry to China, benefiting from the trade of pork and poultry One reason is that the United States is the country with the lowest production cost among the countries without foot-and-mouth disease We5 again, the import of agricultural products will increase in the short term For a long time, China's agricultural products import mainly depends on import license, import quota and other non-tariff measures After China's accession to the WTO, China needs to carry out tariff reduction and relevant policy reform All kinds of non-tariff measures will be banned and can only be converted into relevant equivalent tariffs and then reduced according to regulations On the one hand, China's preparation work in this regard is far from enough On the other hand, because the base period of the reduction is 1986-1988, the price of most of China's agricultural products is lower than the international market price, non-tariff measures will be taken The tariff equivalent after tariff application is negative Therefore, the import of agricultural products will increase rapidly in the short term On the other hand, China's accession to the WTO will not produce the effect of promoting exports in the short term because other countries have implemented the tariff concessions required by the Uruguay round in full or in part Therefore, China's accession to WTO may aggravate the phenomenon of oversupply in the domestic market in the short term, and affect the employment and residents' income We5 finally, after China's accession to the WTO, agricultural producers will face greater market competition, and the market risk will greatly increase Of course, the self-sufficiency of China's agriculture is strong, while the self-sufficiency of agriculture has a strong stability and is not vulnerable to obvious impact Moreover, China is a large agricultural country If we import a relatively small amount of agricultural products, the world market price will be greatly increased, thus restricting imports We53 Long term impact In the long term, China's accession to the WTO will have more advantages than disadvantages in agriculture Because China has no comparative advantage in most agricultural products, the impact of WTO on agricultural sector is not only short-term, but also long-term, especially in crop production Generally speaking, in the future, China's import of agricultural products will tend to increase, while the export will decline, and there will be a large deficit in agricultural trade Although the export of we5 animal husbandry is facing obstacles in the near future, it will still be an important profit-making sector of China's agriculture due to its price advantage, if quality and quality can be improved After China's accession to the WTO, there are two main reasons why China's livestock products have a place in international trade: in terms of price, except for poultry, the price of meat in China's livestock products is lower than the international market price, in which the price of pork is about 50% lower than the international market, the price of beef is about 80%, and the price of mutton is about 50% On the other hand, after China's accession to WTO, China will be a big corn importer, reducing the domestic market price of feed (especially corn), and enhancing the cost advantage of animal husbandry According to the analysis results of the research group of School of economics and management, China Agricultural University, we5's accession to WTO is more conducive to the realization of China's long-term economic development goals The increase of China's import of agricultural products is mainly caused by the rapid economic development promoting the growth of demand, not by the decline of production After China's accession to the WTO, the agricultural production of our country will still maintain a rapid growth, and the income of farmers will also significantly increase In the case that capital and labor elements can flow flexibly across industries, the accession to WTO is conducive to the improvement of rural residents' income We5 in a word, after China's accession to the WTO, the disadvantages outweigh the advantages due to the defects of China's agricultural sector However, with the further development of domestic market economy, China's agriculture will gain long-term benefits of growth and development from international competition We can't imagine that we won't join the WTO because of the short-term harm, because it's very difficult for a closed country to survive in the new century Without opening, there will be no competition; without competition, there will be no motivation and development We suggest that we should speed up the reform of the government's agricultural management system and establish a comprehensive agricultural management department from the central government to the local government Market economy is a democratic economy from the micro level, but a centralized economy from the macro level Without a unified and centralized management department, there can be no consistent external and no efficiency At the same time, the government administration should realize the function transformation to the macro management and information service; establish the market information system of agricultural production, consumption, trade, price, etc.; organize professional research institutions to continuously study the national agricultural product policies, supply and demand changes and countermeasures that are competitive with China's agricultural product exports We52 Accelerate the reform of domestic agricultural product market circulation system We will fully open the agricultural product market, prohibit any form of monopoly and blockade, truly realize the commercialization of agricultural products and the diversification of agricultural product management organizations, form a competitive and unified domestic agricultural product market, and improve the integration (integration) degree and operation efficiency of domestic agricultural product market We53 Improve the organization level of agriculture Governments at all levels should support some key agricultural enterprises with a promising and driving role, so that these enterprises can have certain competitiveness in the international market; actively develop various professional agricultural cooperatives, organize scattered small-scale farmers; vigorously develop various industry associations, and coordinate various affairs within the industry We54 Vigorously adjust the agricultural structure, improve the agricultural production structure and variety structure of our country, improve the output and quality of agricultural products, accelerate the process of agricultural industrialization, and enhance the competitiveness of our agricultural products in the international market In particular, we should develop high-value products with labor-intensive characteristics, products with high added value and traditional advantages