The impact of agricultural subsidy negotiation on China's agriculture and Countermeasures

Introduction: At present, the issue of agricultural subsidies is a focus of multilateral negotiations on China's accession to the WTO China has always insisted on striving for the treatment of developing countries, so as to allow agricultural subsidies to reach 10% of the total agricultural output value However, the United States insists that China should follow the standard of 5% of developed countries It is reported that China and the United States have already entered the WTO with respect to agricultural subsidies and other legacies A final agreement was reached on the issue Although the specific content of the agreement is not known, we can make a discussion on the issue of agricultural subsidies Why is there a deadlock on agricultural subsidies in WTO negotiations? What kind of impact will agricultural subsidies have on China's agriculture and what are our countermeasures 1、 The regulations of WTO on agricultural subsidies the agricultural agreement of WTO is the criterion to regulate the agricultural subsidy policies of all countries in the world, and also the basic basis for China's accession to the WTO Generally speaking, in the WTO agricultural agreement, agricultural subsidies include domestic support and export subsidies Since China has promised to give up the use of export subsidies, the focus of the negotiations is on domestic support Domestic support measures can be divided into two categories One is the policy that does not cause trade distortions, which is called "green box" policy It refers to the agricultural support measures that the government implements an agricultural plan, the cost of which is borne by the taxpayer rather than transferred from the consumers, and has no impact on the producers These policies can be exempt from the concession commitment The other is a trade distorting policy, called "Amber policies", which requires reduction, expressed in terms of "total support" (AMS) The policy scope of domestic support for concession commitment includes: price support, marketing loan, area subsidy, livestock quantity subsidy, seed, fertilizer, irrigation and other input subsidies, some subsidized loan plans, etc According to the definition of agricultural agreement, the total amount of support (hereinafter referred to as AMS) is a technical index used to measure the annual level of support provided to a certain agricultural product for supporting agricultural producers, or to non specific products for supporting agricultural producers Support for specific agricultural products (or all agricultural products) does not need to be reduced as long as its total domestic support does not exceed 5% of the product's GDP (or agricultural GDP) (only 10% is required for developing countries) In addition, as a special differential treatment, some support measures of developing countries are also included in the scope of exemption from concessions, such as agricultural investment subsidies; providing support to producers to encourage the production of illegal narcotic crops; providing agricultural input subsidies to low-income producers, etc Therefore, it can be seen that the United States wants China to join the WTO as a developed country, which means that China can not enjoy 10% of the subsidies and special differential treatment of developing countries, and China can refuse to participate in the new agricultural assistance program 2、 Current situation of agricultural subsidies in China China's current agricultural policies are mostly in line with the "green box policy" stipulated in the agricultural agreement, such as the "general government services" adopted by the state, including agricultural research, pest control, agricultural training services, agricultural infrastructure construction, etc., "public food security reserve", "domestic food aid", "natural disaster relief", "environmental protection plan", etc No concessions Therefore, the main constraint is the "yellow box" policy At present, China's agricultural subsidies are only within 1% - 2%, so there is no need to be subject to any constraint and reduction commitment Long Yongtu said: "in agriculture, China has a population of 900 million Maintaining agricultural stability is of great significance to China's social stability and economic development China's poor agricultural natural conditions, low level of labor force and backward technology are indisputable facts At the same time, China is willing to promote the adjustment of agricultural structure and participate in international competition by opening up the agricultural product market But after China's accession to the WTO, the Chinese government needs to retain the means of agricultural support in line with the provisions of the WTO The interests of 900 million agricultural people will always be the starting point for us to consider all issues " Therefore, it is absolutely necessary and reasonable for the Chinese government to take agricultural development and farmers' interests as the basic principles in the negotiations China's accession to the WTO as a developing country is also in line with China's national conditions 3、 The possible impact of China's concessions on agricultural subsidies However, the United States, the European Union and other WTO members all want to treat China as a developed country, which makes the negotiation deadlocked One reason may be that they are worried that the subsidies of the Chinese government's agricultural product price policy and circulation policy will increase China's grain and cotton production and export competitiveness, which is not conducive to their exports to China; the other is that The reason may be that in recent years, China's agriculture is developing rapidly and its export is growing rapidly They don't understand the real economic reasons They think that the Chinese government subsidies are playing a role, and they often suppress China's export with anti-dumping lawsuits China's garlic, mushrooms, honey and so on have been treated unfairly In fact, China's export of these varieties has increased because they have The competitive advantage of exports is in line with the structure of China's agricultural elements If China really gives in to agricultural subsidies, the biggest impact will be to restrict the space and strength of the government's regulation of agricultural production in the future Although most of the current agricultural policy measures implemented in China are in line with the "green box policy" of the agricultural agreement and do not need to make a concession commitment, in the future, China's support measures in the price protection system of agricultural products and the price subsidy of means of production will be limited At present, the purchase price of China's main agricultural products is lower than or close to the international market price According to the WTO standard, AMS reflecting the market support level of agricultural products is negative, which means that after China's accession to the WTO, the upper limit of China's purchase price increase of main agricultural products is the international market price, plus the subsidy of agricultural material price, the support level of China's agricultural market should be controlled Below 10% of agricultural production (less than 10% if China concedes) Obviously, this is not conducive to China's regulation of the market through agricultural product price policy and means of production subsidy policy, control the rise of agricultural product costs, and mobilize the enthusiasm of farmers in production So if China makes concessions on agricultural subsidies this time, it can be said that this is for China's accession to the WTO as soon as possible, to obtain better development rights, and to make concessions on the issue of enjoying the rights of developing countries 4、 The Countermeasures of China's agricultural support policy from the perspective of the requirements of the WTO agricultural agreement, all countries are committed to reducing subsidies, and the competition of agricultural products in all countries has changed from the price competition under high government subsidies to non price competition such as resources, cost and quality With the change of the international environment, the only way to support the sustainable development of China's agriculture in the future is to comply with the "green box policy" China's current "green box policy" support is small in total, and there are still many problems The development direction of China's future agricultural policy should be to establish and improve the allocation system of agricultural market resources through deepening reform, so as to create a stable policy environment for giving full play to China's agricultural competitiveness The government should increase agricultural support and protection in line with the "green box policy", and increase investment in science and technology, training, environmental protection and water conservancy construction in agriculture and rural areas In addition, because the WTO "agricultural agreement" requires that the government's price support object is mainly the agricultural product producer, not the distributor and the consumer, so although there is still some space for price support regulation, it is necessary to adjust the support structure and the subsidy object.