The high price of fish meal should be in July and August

Introduction: [the high price of fish meal should be in July and August] China is a country with a shortage of protein resources With the development of feed industry, a large number of protein feed materials, especially high-quality protein, need to be imported every year, including fish meal, meat and bone meal, soybean meal, etc In general, China's protein feed import is increasing year by year In 2000, nearly 1.2 million tons of fish meal and 10.42 million tons of soybeans were imported Fish meal is the raw material of high-quality animal protein feed At present, because of its unknown factors and other substances, it is still an essential raw material for the production of high-grade feed China imports a large amount of fish meal every year, which is the largest one in the world, accounting for 30% - 40% of the world's total imports Peru is the largest producer of fish meal in the world, 40% - 60% of which are exported to China China's demand has an important impact on the world fish meal market On the other hand, the price and output changes in Peru, Chile and other major producers of fish meal also have an important impact on the trend of China's fish meal market From the current international market, Peru is in the fishing season According to the prediction of Peru's fisheries experts, the fishing volume in this season is about 5-6 million tons, and 1.1-1.4 million tons of fish meal can be produced From the current situation, the production and supply problems are not big The problem is that the policy of banning or restricting the capture adopted by the Peruvian government to protect resources and prices will have a phased impact on supply One of the aims of this year's ban may be to keep the production of Peru's fish meal from being too large and to create inventory pressure so as to maintain price stability The Peruvian government also announced that if the proportion of juveniles in the first three days after catching is still more than 10% - 15%, it may also ban catching at any time In terms of international demand, the biggest variable comes from Europe Affected by BSE, EU has restricted the use of fish meal As the second largest import region in the world, its policy attitude towards fish meal will have a direct impact on the market demand In addition, with the recent outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease, a large number of animals have been slaughtered, and the demand for feed has shrunk Although Germany has lifted the ban on fish meal recently, the overall demand of EU will still drop There are rumours that there will be an increase in aquatic feed in Europe, which will drive demand for fish meal The price comparison between international soybean meal and fish meal is another important factor affecting the price of fish meal Due to the high yield of soybeans in Brazil and other South American countries, the prices of soybeans and soybean meal continue to decline Although they can not be completely replaced, they also have a great impact The demand from our country will ultimately determine the price of Peru Because the value-added tax policy of our country is not clear, many businesses are still waiting, and the demand season of our country has not yet started, so the transaction is not prosperous With the peak season of fish meal from south to North in April to June, the demand of China will increase obviously The demand in the Far East, Southeast Asia and other places has a certain impact on fish meal For example, the demand in the Philippines and other places will increase, but the overall quantity change is not big, and the impact is limited Domestic fish meal supply mainly comes from four aspects: first, import; second, domestic fish meal; third, inventory; fourth, main substitutes (soybean meal) In 2000, China imported 1.18 million tons of fish meal In January this year, 53000 tons of fish meal were imported Before the start of fishing, less than 300000 tons of fish meal were ordered in China After the start of fishing, 86000 tons of fish meal were ordered in China Domestic fish meal is limited by China's fishery resources, with less good quality (but with price advantage) At present, the production capacity is 600000 tons, the actual output may be 300000-400000 tons, and the domestic demand may be 1.5 million tons / year At present, there is a large amount of stock in the port, about 150000 tons At present, the price of the port is about 3900 yuan / ton Now, the stock is digested quickly because it is about to enter the peak season of consumption The price of Huangpu port has stabilized The price of Shanghai port is 3880 yuan / ton, which has risen by 50 yuan / ton compared with the previous period This year, the domestic breeding industry will continue to develop steadily According to the forecast of experts and government departments, the growth rate will be 3% - 5%, and the feed output will increase accordingly However, due to the increase of corn price, the feed cost rises sharply, while the price of livestock products does not rise with it, which makes feed factories and breeding enterprises have an urgent desire to reduce costs, and the demand for high-quality and high-priced raw materials is restrained to some extent A large amount of domestic demand for fish meal comes from aquatic feed, which can not be replaced by vegetable protein such as soybean meal In recent years, the rapid development of aquaculture in China, according to the prediction of relevant departments, the seasonality of aquaculture this year has led to the off-season and peak season of fish meal sales The peak season of domestic aquaculture is from June to October, which is also the peak season of fish meal sales In general, the high price appears in these months, and the average monthly demand for fish meal is between 150000 and 200000 tons The price of soybean meal and fish meal often has a linkage effect The normal price range is 1.8-2.4 Based on the current price of soybean meal of 1750-1800 yuan / ton, the peak price of fish meal this year is 4300-4400 yuan / ton The acceptable ratio in Europe is as high as 2.7 In this range, the feed factory will not easily adjust the formula If it goes beyond this range, the market will correct the price However, this rule is based on the animal feed that can be replaced by fish meal and soybean meal, while in aquatic feed, there are many restrictions on technical substitution at present Therefore, it is not excluded that there is a significant deviation between the two prices in a certain period This year, due to the abundant soybean harvest in the United States and the reduction of demand in Europe, the international soybean and soybean meal prices continue to fall, and there is no sign of stopping the decline in the near future, which is a negative impact on the price of fish meal The value-added tax policy is another unstable factor affecting the price of fish meal At present, the customs implements the temporary collection of deposit, which makes the traders have certain risks Therefore, there are many people who hold a wait-and-see attitude According to the current national industrial orientation, it is impossible to impose value-added tax on fish meal which is short of resources According to the current news from different channels, the original preferential policies for value-added tax will be cleaned up and the practice of first collection and backward The price of domestic fish meal is also affected by the concentration of arrival at the port At present, since the start of fishing on March 12, China has ordered 86000 tons of fish meal, with the shipment period of April to May and the arrival time of June to July For July in the peak consumption season, the supply is slightly insufficient On the other hand, the price of imported fish meal will also have a negative effect on the demand The high price of fish meal will restrain the demand As far as the current soybean meal price is concerned, the price of fish meal over 4500 yuan / ton will restrain the demand Based on the analysis of various factors, the author believes that with the coming of the peak consumption season, the price of domestic fish meal will rise in the next period of time With the increasing demand, the price will rise gradually and form a market high in July and August China feed industry information network SNA