The high price of corn has d'Anthra farmers, 2600 or no significant

Recently, the domestic corn prices rose sharply, causing widespread concern in the market, the average price of spot corn has exceeded 2600 yuan / ton, futures prices also broke through the 2600 yuan mark at one point, a record high since the listing of corn futures.
the new season corn harvest in Northeast China after the festival, but the new season corn still maintained a high open high, the overall price is still all the way up.
tohuashun APP show that corn futures main 2101 contract on October 16 hit a high of 2629 yuan / ton, the highest since the contract was listed in September 2004, and finally closed at 2589 yuan / ton.
futures contracts have risen 41.79 per cent since January.
with the price of corn, the market has a rare phenomenon of goods, Northeast people even to North China "grab food."
National year there is no significant gap Grain substitution effect" since the September 3 large-scale auction of corn storage, there are still more than 30 million tons of auction grain in the unstocked stage, coupled with the market's remaining spot inventory, the annual carry-over inventory of nearly 40 million tons.
according to the current market estimate of 260 million tons of corn production in the new season (the National Grain and Oil Information Center estimates), the total supply of maize in the new year is still as high as 300 million tons.
," Feng Lichen, president of China Corn Network, told the China Times.
Feng Lichen said that if the new year wheat and rice replacement, as well as the expansion of import scale, the overall supply of corn in the new year is still relatively adequate, the overall supply gap of corn in the new year is not obvious, as for the spot market is currently for the new year gap is large, and even said that the new year corn annual supply gap of up to 60 million, 80 million tons of such a statement is lack of obvious data support, simply not tenable.
In addition, there is a huge price difference in imports, including corn, grain imports are still expanding, corn import orders have exceeded 10 million tons during the year, taking into account the domestic corn market demand, within a reasonable spread within the future corn import scale or will continue to expand.
price advantage of alternatives such as sorghum and barley, the replenishment of imported grains may return to the high level of 2013-2015.
same time, a feed factory sales staff in Guangdong said, it is well known that corn in the downstream feed processing is widely used, the proportion of its dosage accounted for more than 50% of the total feed production.
And the nutritional cost of wheat and corn is very similar, so that its energy raw materials can be used as a large-scale alternative to corn, the key factor to determine its replacement and the size of the proportion is the price, the current North China corn mainstream corn purchase price in 2400-2500 yuan / ton, and wheat prices also fluctuate in this price range.
In addition, according to the feed processing enterprises survey feedback learned that in the case of wheat prices and corn prices equivalent, you can use some wheat instead of corn as feed raw materials, the replacement ratio is about 15-30%.
once the price of corn is 5% or even more than 10% higher than that of wheat, wheat can be used as feed raw material to replace corn in large quantities, and even to meet the standard of all substitutes.
Feng Lichen said that it is precisely because of this, the operating price of wheat also greatly limited the rise in corn prices space, once there is a sharp rise in corn prices to drive wheat prices to follow the upward trend, then it is bound to threaten the safety of rations, which is relatively adequate supply of corn market, the state is bound to introduce a response to the policy control to ensure that rations prices remain stable, and truly implement price stability.
In addition, the country still has more than 100 million tons of over-time storage of rice and wheat, is currently in the market through a targeted way, on the one hand, in the later storage era to continue to the way of policy grain delivery to the market to increase effective food supply, and second, also for the reforested rice wheat to stock, a two-way move.
downstream industrial chain is difficult to follow with the crazy rise in corn prices, the vast number of farmers farming corn "happy smile", some people think that corn prices still have room to rise, this year must have a good harvest.
the northeast region is China's largest corn-producing area, since 2007, Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning corn planting area is rising, the three northeastern provinces corn planting area accounted for 31.6% of the country's sowing area.
Feng Lichen said that defying the impact of climate on corn production, corn production has not achieved growth or even a small decline in the main source, is the Northeast region, especially Heilongjiang corn cultivation area fell significantly, following the 2019 planting area down 17 million mu yoY, 2020 from 2019 planting area down nearly 14 million mu, two years cumulative reduction of planting area of more than 30 million mu. lin Guofa, director of information at
Brrick, said it was important to note that Northeast corn had reached its highest level since 2014, and that there was a sharp drop without warning on October 15th, and that the next step was to pay attention to policy risks, although the state had only about 30 million tons of corn reserves in its hands, but there was still 1/2 of the corn auctioned this year, plus 60 million tons of oteric rice and wheat in the country's hands could be auctioned to meet feed and deep processing needs.
, Mr. Lin said China had purchased 10 million tons of corn from the U.S. in the past month, and that the country's auction control capacity had increased since it arrived in Hong Kong.
so while it's still long-term, there's more than 2700 to look forward to, but it's starting to take care of the risks.
the same time, the market some speculative funds to do a lot of long and self-media publicity, attracting a large amount of money to follow the trend is also an important factor in the current corn rise.
However, some people in the industry said that if this year corn is only used as feed and food, that is certainly enough, but the overuse of corn in industry, but also lead to domestic corn supply and demand imbalance, one of the reasons for the rise in prices.
of corn for industrial use, mainly alcohol, fuel ethanol, and starch corn, especially alcohol and fuel ethanol, has led to higher corn prices.
In addition to ethanol demand for corn is just needed, corn in the feed accounted for more than 60% of the scale of China's growing farming this year also increased the demand for corn, ethanol raw corn supply tension has become a certainty.
According to reporters understand that the South China Dongguan corn ethanol in the raw materials and supply side of the double good to maintain a high level of support, but downstream demand did not significantly increase the impact of the profit, the market has maintained a more stable transaction situation.
with the rising price of corn, especially in this year's autumn harvest season, it is foreseeable that the price of corn in the new season than last year's opening scale prices significantly increased, so far the purchase price of new grain increased by 500 yuan / ton year-on-year.
such a big increase is obvious for the increase in planting earnings.
, then, in the next year, in the re-planting area, the increase in corn cultivation area and thus promote the growth of total corn production in the new year is also reasonable.
same time, Feng Lichen said, agricultural raw material prices can continue to rise, speculation alone is not realistic, want to maintain the upward trend unchanged, downstream demand is very important.
this year in the process of rising corn prices, in addition to pig farming, other downstream are showing a state of gradual losses, some deep processing industry is a long-term loss, forced to reduce the start-up rate.
Although there is still a more obvious profit margin in the pig farming industry in the first and second quarters, but since mid-to-late September, pig prices have shown a state of continuous decline, and from the current trend of the downward momentum shows no sign of slowing down, pig farming profit margins are therefore constantly compressed, objectively also make the future pig farming for high-priced corn acceptance dropped significantly.
In addition, it is worth noting that corn, as one of the bulk agricultural products with an annual output of 260 million tons, its huge output and traders make it doomed to be separated from the "supply-determined trend, demand-determined price" such an iron law, its price trend will eventually return to the fundamentals of supply and demand.
speculation through financial means may push corn prices to a level that is out of touch with reality at some stage, but the price of the spot market is ultimately determined by downstream terminals, i.e. demand.
Looking at the domestic downstream demand terminal, in addition to pig farming, other downstream including starch, alcohol and poultry and egg farming demand growth is rarely bright, pig farming alone can pull the entire corn market consumption growth is obviously unrealistic.
Feng Lichen said that the supply of nearly 300 million tons can basically ensure that the new year corn market supply there is no obvious gap, coupled with grain imports, over-time rice wheat inventory task in the context of the replacement scale expansion expectations, in the absence of obvious gap expectations, corn price market simply do not have the conditions to be continuously pushed up.
For the next corn price trend, Lin Guofa said that corn rise space is not clear, the current price is high, but objectively this year's domestic corn production reduction, the national reserves of corn limited, and the continued recovery of farming demand, purely from the industry to see the corn rise certainty, as to how much can rise, depending on the policy attitude, to 2600 or cautious point, can be appropriately looked forward to 2700.