The hidden worries behind the map of China's grain migration from the north to the south

The south is growing less and less grain, and the north is overwhelmed.

Every day, hundreds of freight trains depart from various stations in Heilongjiang, Liaoning and Jilin, loaded with high-quality rice, corn and other grains from Northeast China

These grains or from the land, through Hebei, Henan, Hunan, Hubei all the way south, reaching the Yangtze River Delta, Pearl River Delta cities

Different from the much-anticipated Spring Festival Movement, this is a little-known grain migration - the "Northern Grain Movement to the South"

However, the transportation of grains from the north to the south is not only an efficient performance of the market, but there are also many hidden worries behind the great migration of grains

North-South Exchange, Changes in China's Grain Map

Historically, from the Three Kingdoms period to the Tang and Song Dynasties, after hundreds of years of southern development, China's grain production pattern has gradually changed

The pattern of south-to-north transportation of grains continued until the end of the twentieth century

Data show that at the beginning of the founding of the People's Republic of China, 12 of the 14 southern provinces were net exporters of grain, with more than 20 million tons transferred each year

After the reform and opening up, the south, which was the first to gain popularity, began to develop industrial industries on a large scale.

Changes in the industrial structure have gradually affected the grain production situation in the south

Zhong Yu, a researcher at the Institute of Agricultural Economics of the Chinese Academy of Agricultural Sciences, once sorted out the context of the changes in China's main grain-producing areas.

Technological progress, the basis for increased production in the north

In August 2021, after a heavy rain in Henan, in a high-standard farmland on the outskirts of Anyang County, farmers packed up the flooded corn and began to prepare for the planting of winter wheat

Compared with the fertile and fertile south, the arid north with little water has relied on the food input from the south for thousands of years.

Obviously, the plight of water shortage in the north has not been improved.

In Shouyang, Shanxi, there is a national field scientific observation and research station for dryland agricultural ecosystems.

The southern climate and water conservancy conditions are good, and it can have two or even three crops a year, which is suitable for the "reproductive growth" of crops, and the yield is high

Production area division, not just market regulation

While the production in the north was increasing, the fertile south was undergoing a dramatic change in the agricultural model.
In Guangdong, Zhejiang, Fujian and other places, especially the Yangtze River Delta and the Pearl River Delta, the regions with the fastest economic growth, the area of ​​grain planting declined rapidly
.

Take the Pearl River Delta as an example.
In the 1930s, the mulberry-based fish ponds, sugar-cane-based fish ponds and paddy fields in the Pearl River Delta were typical representatives of southern agriculture
.
After the 1980s, Jitang agriculture began to decline sharply, and the area of ​​rice cultivation continued to shrink
.
A large number of labors flowed from agriculture to industry, and a large number of high-quality farmland became high-rise buildings in the process of rapid urban expansion
.
The remaining agriculture is not optimistic, and cash crops such as flowers, vegetables, and fruits are increasingly replacing traditional rice cultivation
.

In Guangdong, the mountainous Meizhou is an area with relatively more agricultural preservation
.
The reporter learned from the local area that farmers are not very enthusiastic about planting double-cropping rice.
Many people choose to plant single-cropping rice.
The manpower they save can go out to work, and their income is much higher than that of planting rice
.

Does this mean that the northward shift of the center of grain production is the result of resource allocation by the market? Zhong Yu believes that it is not just that.
He told reporters that when the main producing provinces were divided in 1994, Zhejiang was still the main grain producing province at that time, and Hebei, Henan, Jiangsu, etc.
were not included
.
In the following years, the production situation in some provinces diverged
.
Therefore, when the main production areas were divided in 2001, Jiangsu became the main production area, and Zhejiang was not included in it
.

At present, China has 13 major grain producing areas, including 7 in the north, including Heilongjiang, Jilin, Liaoning, Henan, Shandong, Hebei, and Inner Mongolia; and 6 in the south, including Anhui, Jiangsu, Sichuan, Hunan, Hubei, and Jiangxi
.
But this pattern was not formed from the beginning
.
In fact, over the past 20 years, China's three major grain production areas, the main grain production area, the main grain sales area, and the production and sales balance area, have undergone many changes and adjustments, and the corresponding policies are also constantly being adjusted
.

Factors such as the increase in grain production in the north brought about by technological change, the allocation of resources by market development, and the guarantee of grain production by policies, intertwined and interacted with each other, and finally formed a new north-south pattern of grain production and sales
.

The seven northern provinces produce half of the country's grain

In December 2021, the sale of late rice in the south has ended.
In Heilongjiang, the northernmost city in the north, farmers' corn has also entered the sales season.
On the edge of an ordinary village in Suihua City, Heilongjiang, neatly lined cornrows began to be packed.
car transport
.
Because of the wrong judgment on the temperature, a farmer's tens of thousands of kilograms of corn was a little hot, and the price was much lower than normal
.

Heilongjiang is the province with the largest grain output in China.
Data from the National Bureau of Statistics shows that in 2021, Heilongjiang's grain output will be 157.
354 billion catties, accounting for 11.
5% of the national total
.
The total population of Heilongjiang in 2020 is only 31.
8501 million, and the per capita grain output exceeds 2.
4 tons, while the per capita grain possession in China is 474 kilograms
.
This means that most of the grain produced in Heilongjiang is supplied to other provinces in the form of commercial grain
.

The seven main producing areas in the north have a total population of 398 million, but the total grain output exceeds 680 billion catties, accounting for half of the country's total
.
Therefore, there is a view that in grain production, the seven northern provinces feed half of China
.

The large output of grain in the main producing areas means that more local grain cannot be self-sufficient and needs to be imported
.
According to the China Statistical Yearbook, the food self-sufficiency rate in many provinces in China is less than 50%, and the lowest self-sufficiency rate is only about 30%
.

Taking Guangdong as an example, in 2021, the total grain output in Guangdong will be 12.
799 million tons, while the total population of Guangdong is 129 million, and the per capita grain output is less than 100 kilograms
.
In the previous 2019, the net transfer of grain in Guangdong Province exceeded 38.
8 million tons, and the grain self-sufficiency rate was 24%
.
Zhejiang is also a province with a low food self-sufficiency rate.
In 2021, Zhejiang's total grain output will be 6.
21 million tons, with 64.
7 million people in the province, and the per capita output will be about 96 kilograms
.
Zhejiang is also a large food consumption province.
According to public reports, the annual food input in Zhejiang accounts for about half of the food consumption
.

In addition to direct shipments of grain, the same problem exists with meat
.
Mei Xurong explained, "Raising livestock requires a lot of grain, and there is a lot of fresh meat in the southern market
.
These meat products may be locally raised in the south, but the feed also includes grain from the north
.
"

Comparative advantage, opportunities for northern grain-producing regions?

Zhejiang Zhoushan Port is one of the ports that undertakes North Grain and South Transportation.
Here, the amount of grain handled every month reaches nearly one million tons.
From January to May 2021 alone, the amount of grain handled by Zhoushan Port will reach 4.
6645 million tons.

.
Similar grain acceptance ports include Fujian Zhangzhou China Merchants Wharf and Guangdong Huangpu Port
.

Why is there less and less food in the South? Some people believe that the formation of the pattern of grain transportation from the north to the south is the result of the market optimizing resources and giving play to comparative advantages
.

In fact, the southward movement of grain has indeed brought opportunities for the development of agricultural industries to many northern grain-producing regions
.
For example, Heilongjiang, the northernmost province in China, according to the macroeconomic operation data of the whole province released by Heilongjiang, in 2021, the GDP of Heilongjiang will be 1,487.
92 billion yuan, of which the total output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery will be 646 billion yuan, accounting for nearly half.

.

In Guangdong, the annual output value of agriculture, forestry, animal husbandry and fishery was 836.
900 billion yuan, more than Heilongjiang, but it accounted for less than 0.
07% of the regional GDP
.

"From a beneficial point of view, changes in grain production areas allow different regions to develop different industries according to their own characteristics
.
For example, in the south, more economic crops with higher planting efficiency are planted.
Henan, Hebei, northeast, etc.
, have vast In the plains, it is more advantageous to use mechanized methods to grow food
.
”

However, is comparative advantage really an opportunity for major grain-producing regions? In 2021, Heilongjiang's GDP will be only about one tenth of Guangdong's
.

"The economy of the north cannot always be worse than that of the south.
This should not be the rule
.
" Mei Xurong said
.
The formation of the economic gap between the main grain-producing areas and the main food-selling areas is not only due to market factors.
Zhong Yu said, "The main grain-producing areas ensure the national food security, but bear the opportunity costs such as the economy cannot keep up and industrialization is slow
.
"

North grains are transported to the south, not only grains are transported

In 2021, China will achieve 18 consecutive grain harvests, with grain output exceeding 13.
6 trillion kilograms
.
However, behind the bumper harvest is the overloaded utilization of resources and environment in grain-producing areas
.
Especially in the main grain-producing areas in the north, problems such as soil degradation and groundwater over-exploitation are serious
.

As we all know, the northern region is generally dry and water-deficient, and the production of food requires a lot of water
.
Mei Xurong explained that on the map of China's agricultural production, the dry farming areas north of the Qinling Mountains and the Huaihe Kunlun Mountains account for 65% of the country's land area and 56% of the cultivated land area, but only 19% of the water resources
.
More importantly, this region produces 58% of the country's grain, of which dryland produces 43% of the country's grain
.

In food production, there is a concept called "virtual water", the virtual amount of water that condenses in products and services
.

"From the data point of view, several important South-to-North water transfer projects in China can transfer 30 billion cubic meters of water from the south each year, but during the north-to-south transportation of grains, the annual virtual water from the north to the south reaches 50 billion cubic meters to 60 billion cubic meters
.
This means that the water-scarce north is constantly producing food for the water-free south
.
"

A ton of grain is a thousand cubic meters of water, which is a common saying in agricultural production, which means that every ton of grain produced requires 1,000 cubic meters of water
.
In fact, with the advancement of technology, this consumption is decreasing
.
Mei Xurong told reporters that the current utilization rate of natural precipitation in China's dryland agriculture has increased to 65%, "In our demonstration area, it can even reach more than 70%, and the level of grain consumption per ton is 500-600 cubic meters, even as low as 300 cubic meters, which is far higher than the global average advanced level
.
But even so, the lack of water resources is still one of the biggest problems in China's agricultural production
.
"

In addition to virtual water, there are also a large amount of nutrients such as nitrogen, phosphorus and potassium, which are also transferred to the south with the transportation of grain from the north to the south, which also exacerbates the decline of soil fertility in the north
.
Taking black land as an example, the originally fertile black land is rapidly degrading
.
In Suihua, Heilongjiang, a village secretary told reporters that in the current black land, without fertilizers, corn can only grow more than 1 meter high
.
In the production area of ​​Wuchang rice, local farmers told reporters that the original black land has now become yellow land
.

The transportation of grain from the north to the south may also put pressure on carbon neutrality in the future
.
Mei Xurong introduced that large-scale food transportation will bring about changes in carbon footprint
.
From the perspective of ecological sustainability, the long-term transportation of food from the north to the south means that the south continues to export carbon emissions to the north
.

Food self-sufficiency is approaching a dangerous red line

The lack of food self-sufficiency in many provinces and cities is affecting the national food security
.

Data show that in 2021, the country will import 160 million tons of grain
.
Although the two major rations of wheat and rice can be completely self-sufficient, from the perspective of total grain demand, China's grain self-sufficiency rate is decreasing, "The total grain self-sufficiency rate has approached the bottom line of 80%, which is unacceptable for a large country.
accepted
.
"

Food security is the cornerstone of a major country, and no major country can rely on external sources to achieve food security
.
China is a country with a large population, and it is impossible to rely on external guarantees for the jobs of 1.
4 billion people.
"If the import ratio is too high, the imported food will be easily bought and eaten, and it will be very troublesome if you cannot leave it.
Once the supply is cut off, it will be very dangerous
.
" Xurong said
.

Food security is also the basis for securing the future, so food issues are never just an economic issue
.
According to Zhong Yu, the United States generally revises the Farm Bill every five years to support food planting in various ways, and other countries are similar
.
It is impossible to achieve stable and increased grain production by allocating resources through the market.
"In fact, if we rely entirely on the market, it is more likely that no one will be willing to grow grain
.
"

"There are fewer and fewer grains grown in the south, and the north is overwhelmed.
It is time to solve the problem
.
" Mei Xurong said, "This is also this year's No.
1 document, which particularly emphasizes that the main production areas, main sales areas, and production and sales balance areas must be The reason for maintaining area and output
.
This is the policy of a strong country, and it is the cornerstone of a great country
.
”

Keeping the bottom line, the food issue cannot be purely based on market thinking

The north-south transportation of grain and the difference in production and sales between the north and the south gradually revealed the worries behind it
.
How to plan ahead to change the unbalanced food pattern?

"There must be bottom-line thinking
.
" Mei Xurong said, "In each region, the elements of food production must be protected, including arable land, water resources, etc.
For example, each region must draw a bottom line on the self-sufficiency rate of food, including fresh vegetables.
Wait, there must also be a minimum guarantee line, such as 30%
.
”

The increase in the self-sufficiency rate in different regions of the country and the decrease in the demand for food input also means that the dependence on imports will also decrease.
"In our development process, we can't just use economic thinking to consider food problems, let alone think that food problems It is a market problem
.
In fact, food has never been a purely economic problem.
At present, China's food production is excessively concentrated in the north, and risks and fluctuations may be greater
.
Especially for the south, economic security and food security cannot be opposed to each other.
, the two are not contradictory, not either
.
”

This year's No.
1 document proposes to implement hard measures to protect cultivated land with "long teeth"
.
Zhong Yu believes that this is actually protecting food production in various places
.

"The party and government share the responsibility and how to implement it.
This year's No.
1 document also has a very clear statement
.
" Zhong Yu said, "This is beneficial to strengthening the guarantee of
food security.
Food security has been emphasized in the past, but at the specific promotion level , there are still problems such as operability
.
Therefore, this year's Central No.
1 document has put forward many specific measures
.
In the future, strict assessment is still required.
Punishment is punished
.
Through strict assessment, independent evaluation, information feedback, social disclosure and other measures, the food production in various places has been effectively improved
.
”