The hidden danger of soybean enterprise's massive centralized purchase

Introduction: since the middle of September, the cost of imported soybeans has been decreasing, the squeezing profit of domestic oil plants has improved significantly, the operating rate of oil plants has increased, and the enthusiasm of purchasing American soybeans has also increased Recently, domestic oil plants have purchased 4043900 tons of American new soybeans, 20% higher than the same period last year However, when the high-yield new beans are listed on the market, the oil companies, regardless of the domestic basis and demand, import a large number of soybeans, which may lead to the situation that the supply exceeds the demand again in the later soybean market, thus severely damaging the domestic soybean and soybean meal prices Since the second quarter of this year, due to the continuous plummeting of international soybean market prices, the continuous downturn of domestic soybean meal demand, and the pressure of national macro-control, a large number of oil companies imported high priced soybeans, leading to serious losses in the industry Many Chinese oil plants have no choice but to break a large number of contracts for imported soybeans, which led to a lack of imports at one time, and international grain companies also suffered a loss of 200-300 million US dollars The consequent problem is that oil plants are currently limited by the harsh sales conditions set by American traders Specifically, if Chinese buyers want to purchase 50000 tons of soybeans per ship, A deposit of at least US $2.5 million (equivalent to 20% of the cost of the whole ship of soybeans, compared with the previous minimum of 5%); secondly, Chinese buyers are required to receive the goods within one month to one and a half months after signing the contract (they can order in the first few months before the delivery date); thirdly, Chinese importers are required to open letters of credit within three days after signing the contract (in the past few weeks) The traditional mode of capital turnover of domestic oil plants is: issuing letter of credit by banks → processing imported soybeans by oil plants → selling soyoil and soybean meal to collect funds → returning the funds of letter of credit, circulating in turn After accepting the new terms of the contract, the cycle of price counting will be shortened after the oil factory purchases the premium, the capital requirements will be further improved, the technical level of its operation opportunity and means will be tested, and the competition will be intensified Moreover, over the years, when China's purchase price has appeared in Chicago soybean market in large quantities, the price will always rise, the purchase cost of oil plants will always increase, and the risk of having to marry the follow-up industry will naturally increase At the beginning of the year, the oil companies purchased South American soybeans improperly, and they undertook a large loss After paying a large amount of tuition fees, they again concentrated on the purchase of North American soybeans, which still lacked scientific and systematic behavior In recent months, when CBOT soybeans fell about 50% to 500 cents / bushel from the 16 year high at the beginning of the year, American farmers began to apply for government loan subsidies, showing reluctance to sell With the increase of discount price and the shipping rate of $60, the enthusiasm of Chinese buyers began to appear, which led to the rebound of CBOT soybean futures price of nearly 30 cents Under the situation that the poor sales of South American soybeans this year led to a large increase in inventories, the concentrated listing of high-yield new soybeans in the northern hemisphere, and the increasing pressure of world soybean supply in the future, the fund has a clear attitude and still holds a net position of more than 47000 hands, which is not optimistic in the future However, oil plants can't wait for a large number of price points when there is a small profit squeeze, lest they be blocked by international speculators again, and regardless of the actual situation such as domestic basis and demand, it is likely to bury hidden dangers again Before the National Day holiday, the oil factory had a crushing profit of up to 500 yuan / ton or even 600 yuan / ton At present, although the soybean meal and soybean oil have fallen one after another, the profit of the oil factory is still 200 yuan / ton (at present, the domestic soybean crushing profit is significantly higher than the imported soybean, about 300-400 yuan / ton) As the spot price of soybean meal continues to decline, the consumption of poultry, meat, eggs and other downstream products began to decline after the festival, and the prices of other related feed raw materials, corn and wheat, also fell sharply in the near future Facing the off-season demand, feed enterprises have a stronger wait-and-see mentality, and the phenomenon of short and light positions is more common After a large number of purchases in the near future, it is estimated that the arrival volume of imported soybeans in October and November will exceed the expectation, which may reach 1.8 million tons and 2 million tons The arrival cost is around 2760 yuan / ton According to the transaction price of soybean oil that has dropped by more than 500 yuan in the near future, 5750 yuan / ton, the cost price of soybean meal is 2350 yuan / ton If the CBOT soybean price continues to decline, the domestic soybean price will inevitably be dragged down all the way At that time, farmers in the production area may sell a large number of new beans, coupled with the influx of low-cost imported soybeans, the soybean market in the later period is likely to have the situation of oversupply again Moreover, China has recently purchased 70000 tons of cheap soybean meal, coupled with the soybean oil import, which has increased by more than 70% year-on-year this year, the risk of future supply cannot be ignored.