The government supports grain prices, which will continue to rise this year

Introduction: according to the food and agricultural policy research and survey Association of the United States, China's grain prices experienced a rapid recovery growth of about 20% in the second half of last year, ending the six consecutive years of decline Economists and government officials said that regardless of the intention of policy makers and market supply and demand, China's grain prices will continue to rise at a rate of no less than double digits in 2004 V84 they said that the main reason for the double-digit increase in food prices last year was the reduction in production caused by natural disasters and the decline in planting area The government's attitude of supporting the increase in food prices is an important consideration for the expected increase in food prices this year Xu Xiaoqing, Vice Minister of Rural Economic Research Department of V84 Development Research Center of the State Council, told Reuters, "the central government is determined to help farmers increase their income this year, and will continue to support food prices Because only when the price of grain rises will it have a real effect on the farmers' income " V84 * urban residents can bear the price increase * v84 experts believe that at present, the upper limit for urban residents to bear the increase in food prices should be no less than 20%, so this year's price increase of 10% - 15% is entirely possible Chen Xiwen, deputy head of the central leading group of Finance and economics in charge of agriculture in v84, said recently, "last year, the overall increase of grain price was not large, and the overall price level of grain was still lower than that in 1996, so there is still a reasonable space for the price to rise A reasonable recovery in the price of agricultural products will not exceed the capacity of ordinary residents " According to v84 data, in 2002, the average expenditure on food, oil, meat and vegetables of urban residents in China was 43.8 yuan less than that in 1996, while the per capita income of residents in the same period had increased by more than 3000 yuan A researcher from v84's Ministry of Agriculture said that from the government's action in October last year when food prices rose, it can also be seen that the government is happy to see the price rise "The state's inventory still has sufficient price adjustment capacity," he said.. For example, when two carts of corn arrived in Dalian, the soaring price came down, but the government didn't do it on a large scale, because it had been looking forward to increasing farmers' income for a long time " V84 the Chinese government has made reducing the widening gap between urban and rural areas as an important work in 2004 It is expected that the agricultural issue will also become a hot topic for delegates at the upcoming National People's Congress Kong Xiangzhi, a professor in the Department of agricultural economics at Renmin University of China, said: "although the grain output will not increase unexpectedly this year, the growth of demand is not expected to be small At present, it seems that the supply and demand of the whole year will be in a 'tight balance', that is, demand is slightly larger than supply." Last year, China's total grain output was about 430 billion kg, the lowest since 1990 It is estimated that the demand in that year was about 485 billion kg The government has set a grain output target of 455 billion jin this year, which is also lower than last year's demand Experts say that in addition to the increasing demand for rations as the population grows, the grain processing and crushing plants that have been launched in recent years have also increased the demand for grain, because each new factory means that corresponding production stocks must be supplemented According to a recent report published on the official website of the Ministry of agriculture of China (v84), the inventory of national grain depots in 2003 was less than 30% of the annual consumption, the lowest level since 1974, about half lower than the average level in the past 30 years, and said that "it is unlikely that such inventory will continue to decline at such a low level without causing food prices to rise." With the decrease of inventory and strong domestic demand, China's grain importers frequently sold in the international market in 2004 They successively placed 3 million tons of wheat orders in the United States, Australia, Canada and other countries Officials earlier estimated that the gap would reach 20 million tons this year According to the insiders of v84, due to the fact that the price in the international market is not cheap at present, the increase of import will inevitably lead to the rise of the price in the international market, and the domestic market will also be affected The closing price of may contract of v84 Zhengzhou Futures Exchange was 1683 yuan per ton on Tuesday, while that of November contract was 2000 yuan per ton, indicating that the market expects the wheat price to rise significantly The price of feed crops is variable due to the outbreak of avian influenza in the beginning of v84 The price of food mainly used for feed, such as soybean and corn, was variable in 2004 Up to now, 16 out of 31 provinces and regions in China have reported outbreaks The government has killed more than one million poultry in the affected areas to prevent the spread "Chicken feed accounts for a high proportion of the demand for soybean meal and corn, estimated at 40 to 50 percent, so the epidemic has a direct impact on the price of these agricultural products," said the researcher from the v84 Ministry of agriculture V84 experts said that the threat of avian influenza depends on its duration If it can end quickly, it is believed that soybean prices will continue to be high this year, but if it can not be relieved after the summer and autumn chicken raising season, there will be serious consequences They say different facilities make it more difficult for chicken farmers to switch to other animals, such as pigs, so feed demand is bound to be affected.